I am in Russia currently.
Not Russian but I speak fluent Russian and have acquaintances in affected territories.
Update: 19:28 Moscow time.
- Situation is normal in cities and oblasts: as in, there seem to be no panic but people are definitely reading the news.
- Everyone support the government - although I find Russians to be highly political apathetic (which is one of the major roots of the problems in the country IME). The ones who'd soft corner for Wagner also seem to note that Prigozhin should've picked a better time for this. Wagner posters for recruitment are being removed. In all sense, it has fallen from grace.
- Wagner definitely does not have a high proportion of supporters amongst civilians. Within the army's junior ranks (and in Rosgvardiya) there are people that are more sympathetic to it, hence, why they do not explicitly used force against them.
Rumors here are that this is one of the reasons why Ahmat forces were sent to Rostov.
- Wagner forces themselves seem to have strict instructions not to use show of force against esp. civilians in order to not alienate them.
- I'd take Western-news with some salt as well because this is a good time to mix information-war as well.
- Moscow is on high alert, people aren't suggested to make too many public movements, and Monday is declared holiday for most public institutions. Many dense places (malls etc.) have been evacuated. I believe this is to ensure that civilians are neither impacted nor used as hostages.
- For best/live updates, use Telegram channels (in Russian) or Tass (in Russian, use your BS-sensor accordingly)
Its not. It is indifference which leads to the very few - who can hold the power - to continue holding it unobstructed and play their narrative with propaganda because they themselves know that even if people realize this is BS, they'd still not do anything about it.
There is a cumulative "corruption of will" - for the lack of better term - that comes with it. And when there is no will, those who can have their way, will continue to have it.
What's wrong in 908B64B197's statement is not that it's a good survive strategy. It's wrong that russian commoners take sides. Indifference leads to caring only for yourself and those who are close to you. And whoever is in power - doesn't matter.
There's a ukranian proverb that is also part of russian culture in english it's meaning sounds like "lords fight - serfs struggle" (паны дерутся - у холопов чубы трещат). So for ordinary person best strategy is not to get yourself between Scylla and Charybdis and be loyal to any power unless you get direct profits from loyalty.
Russians aren't in a position to participate in anything approximating politics. There is no state in Russia, it collapsed long ago already. It is a mafia turf war.
All that matters is making money. Putin, Prigozhin, the Kremlin, do not care about Russians or Ukrainians. Don't care about their reputation, the world or treaties.
New audio statement by Prigozhin (00:03 BST), stating Wagner "crossed state borders in all areas" and is now entering Rostov, promising to "destroy anything standing in their way":
"The current situation: today, we were dealt a missile strike. After this strike, helicopters did their work. Then, artillery.
The orders were coming from the Head of General Staff to destroy PMC Wagner. After a meeting with the Minister of Defence Shoygu where they made this decision - to destroy the rebellious units, who are ready to defend the motherland, but not their asses.
As of now, we’ve crossed the state borders in all areas. Border guards came towards us and hugged our fighters.
Now, we’re entering Rostov. Units of the Ministry of Defence, in fact, the conscripts who were thrown to block our path, moved away.
We do not fight with children. We do not kill children. Shoygu is killing children by throwing untrained soldiers, conscripts included, into the war.
He set up 18-year-old lads against us. They’re like children and grandchildren to us. Therefore, these lads will live and return to their mothers.
We only fight with professionals. But if someone stands in our path, we will destroy EVERYTHING in our way.
We lend a hand to anyone. No need to spit in this hand. We are moving forward, going to the end.
Regarding claims regarding the arrest: this brotherhood, this justice, this honour, this conscience is what we have. But when you make these claims, you haven’t got these feelings. These feelings are destroyed. Thus, you cannot understand anything but betrayal."
Wagner leader Prigozhin is gambling and betting everything on red (or black?).
The problem for the Russian government is that many ordinary pro-war Russians see Prigozhin as a hero. If they kill him, he'll become a martyr.
For all I care both sides are war criminals and should answer for their atrocities in Ukraine. If they can kill each other without also killing civilians, don't think we should stand in their way too much.
I'll say this, the guy is bold as hell. He's an absolute maniac and probably worse than Putin but he sure isn't afraid of anything. One can only hope he wrecks enough chaos make the war in Ukraine untenable.
I'll also say this, Putin played his hand as poorly as humanly possible. He spent decades stockpiling loyalty and political capital with an iron fist and spent it all in less two years and has absolutely nothing to show for it. I think it's time to admit that beneath his steely-eyed, stoic demeanor he isn't half as smart as he's been given credit for.
Is he bold and unafraid? My thought is he believes he has a 0% chance of living to this time next year given the current way things are going. If rebelling increases his odds to 0.5% and he doesn't care about the lives of anyone else it's the logical thing to do.
This guy is just pushing his own militaristic agenda. Also, he's not a general. He's the head of a mercenary/human trafficking organization. The US equivalent would be Erik Prince who has definitely been working his own agenda also and it isn't more benevolent than the Pentagon.
He watched the US disaster with Iraq and was like “oh yeah? hold my vodka…”
He even spread lies about Ukrainian bio weapons (WMDs!) in an echo of the Iraq war buildup BS.
Someone should have told him that Iraq was a disaster for the US and is now widely regarded as such by most of DC (whether or not they say it in public).
Yes, hence the “hold my vodka” joke. Usually that trope (original is “hold my beer”) indicates that the second imitator is going to do something far worse or dumber.
Not sure about the origin but it may be one of the “famous last words” list jokes. Other famous last words I remember included “watch this” and “I got this bro.”
Prigozhin seems to be playing this savvily. Extremely savvily. He isn't directly threatening Putin. There is a face-saving change in which Shoigu et al are executed and Prigozhin and Putin split their cookies. Putin can frame it as discovering they lied to him, and possibly even re-set expectations for the war in Ukraine.
Totally an armchair opinion, but I think Prigozhin is a toast and he knows it. He cannot fight (troops hated, plus ranks decimated in Bakhmut) and cannot hide (no one will take him). He may be just trying to go down with a bang. My 2c.
Wagner are actualy the coup masters, that was like their main job.
Wagner's bread and butter before the war was getting control of small countries and especially gold and diamond mines and other valuable resources in Africa.
Maybe Prygozhyn reckons russia is about as weak as one of those countries now and he can take it. He has some popular support. Sure russia has the nukes, but they cant use them to stop a coup, are they gonna nuke themselves?
Wagner definitely can fight and I think this is a real danger for Putin. The invasion did not go well and he's vulnerable to more hawkish members of the military who wish to escalate the war.
It's not guaranteed that units will agree to deploy against other Russians. Not guaranteed that if they deploy they will fight. Not guaranteed that if they fight they will win.
Wagner has crossed the Rubicon and now it's do or die for them. They'll fight hard and are probably the most capable individual fighting force in Russia right now. Biggest challenge they face is air strikes. But if they brought SAMs with them or the air force won't bomb things will get dicey quickly.
> Wagner has crossed the Rubicon
Prigozhin did, and maybe a few of his top lieutenants, but Wagner is not a uniform structure. Wagner is a mix of:
A) Older, experienced soldiers of fortune types. They did tours in Africa and other places and know how to fight. They are not too numerous and they have absolutely no interest in politics, fairness and especially any conflict with regular Russian forces. They are doing the job, they want to get paid, but instead of the paycheck the latest adventure is likely to stamp them with "treason".
B) New cannon fodder, hired from poor regions for decent (for their area) money after the invasion. They are not experienced fighters and they suffered greatly in Bakhmut. This is not your coup makers. Putin tells them to come home, they will.
C) Prison rabble, taken from prisons often with 10+ year of their sentence remaining. Their contract is that if they survive a 6-month tour they get remaining sentence voided. There are a lot of them. Getting killed in Bakhmut was a part of the contract. But this march gives them nothing. Instead of walking free they will likely end up back in prison, with new scars. If Russian army offers to honor the original contract (freedom for a 6-month tour), they will just as happily fight for it.
I do not think there is any desire at Wagner to fight the Russian army. In fact this may be a theater, designed in Kremlin to tighten the screws at home and as a side benefit to snuff out Prigozhin who seems to be getting unhinged lately. But we shall see...
I think you are underestimating the potential of a shared trauma experience in Bakhmut and a new motivating factor of "revenge". Whether it's enough is uncertain, but it has to factor.
What if the whole thing is about Putin setting up some lower level fall guys for a loss in Ukraine? Prigozhin maybe? Provoke him into doing something crazy, take him out, then claim he is responsible for failure on the front or even that he's a traitor and was working with Ukraine or something.
So far it seems like they are going all in. I would say that it does not even matter at this point who wins as it will destabilize whole country/region either way.
Also who knows what will happen in Belarus and Chechnya as there are anti-estblishment forces that have been waiting for quite some time for an opportunity to strike.
Either way this has huge potential to grow into something similar as happend to USSR.
I wish @dang would weigh in. Either unflag it (as I hope) on the grounds of it being a key event of high interest to curious people or confirm that this doesn't belong on HN (which would be a valid point, too).
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36456034 (EDIT: side note, it seems there is a surprising number of people for whom it seems incredibly important that this is on the front page, but that don't take part in the discussion about it. why? Something not being on the front page doesn't mean you can't discuss it!)
For every thread that I comment on there are usually several that I read because I find others' comments informative or thought-provoking. Reading comments is basically why I am on HN. There may be the same dynamic in play here.
On the topic itself -- this war, and the world reaction to it, is a critical part of modern history and will likely influence political, military and technological developments for years to come. I would love to hear more smart people express an opinion on it. Flagging greatly limits this.
fair point, HN could maybe do a better job making the "canonical" thread more discoverable for those that look for it (now that I think of it, flagged might remove it from search too even if not flag-killed, that's not ideal and would be an argument for removing that mark for the first thread, even if stays penalized in ranking)
A potential coup in one of the world's most populous countries, who are also in the midst of the largest war in Europe since WW2, is not just "politics". That's ridiculous.
A major portion of Russia's de facto military, led by one of the country's most prominent figures, has left Ukraine and is heading for Moscow. This is history happening right in front of us. If HN was around in 1989, would the fall of the Berlin Wall have been [flagged] too?
Yes it would. Because it would "be political" and gasp don't talk about politics!
Dong will tell you that this subject attracts flamewars, but then again I think he's just parroting what someone else told him and has really examined how people in HN actually discuss the subject.
This war is highly relevant even to a fictional Silicon Valley Tech Elite, as it causes unprecedented inflation, stock market rollercoasters, tech platforms and companies getting banned, counter banned etc.
You are making a rational argument against an irrational and faceless adversary who wrote and continues to defend the guidelines which proscribe political discussion as being contemptuous.
It's simply not the proper venue because the policy admits so much distain and misunderstanding of politics that it can't effectively carve out a proper space for such discussion.
And further, the policy admits it cannot trust either participants or the voting system in place to manage such conversations. As soon as one person with power to flag, that's it.
These conversations inevitably make HN management nervous. Since they can't cope with it, no one else is allowed to.
You can simply not click that link. I don't think that I've hidden/misrepresented or clickbaited the title to force you to click... You may not want to interact, others may.
If it wasn’t pushed back against it would take over the entire site and every thread would devolve into a rehashed flame war about Trump or gender issues or something. Then everyone else would leave.
Even though these events were provoked by the war, they are important even without that connection. Possibility of civil war / regime change in Russa will inevitably hit everyone in the world. Some will get hit more, some less. Some only economically.
Nothing to do with a culture war vortex. Burying your head in sand is not necessarily the smartest option although I understand that it is the easiest one.
That is true, but the guidelines also say anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity.
History of nations & psychology & huge geopolitical changes is indeed something I find very interesting. And I think I'm not alone as I don't believe that hackers have to be interested only in tech and nothing else.
Many subjects that could also be quite interesting are still flagged due to the kind of comments they attract, i.e. the not intellectually curious kind. Even for more typical non-news HN content, things that veer into reactive territory get quickly flagged.
For what it’s worth, dang has commented on this specific event in more detail here [0] and addresses the curiosity piece.
Bottom line: all discussion about this event at this point will be made of speculation and hot takes, because we have very little solid info about the unfolding situation.
That is the nature of an unfolding situation. I was trying to post updates from the sources I found and was hoping more interested people would join in for us to get clearer picture and to watch up close.
Saying that you cannot have conversation about this just reeks of a poorly veiled elitism.
Dang also said that "There hasn't been a coup" in thad thread you link to which leads me to believe he has no idea what is going on and what is at stake here or he simply does not care. Which is fine, but to say that there is nothing to discuss is just ... wrong.
An unfortunate Russian passport holder, my parents were one of richest people in Russian Far East in the early nineties.
Hackernewsers knows well I am extremely anti-Russian.
The West massively misunderstands Russia, and how it works on the inside. If you watch CSIS, RAND, Aspen institute, you will see 10 talking heads each talking his own completely different story, and none of them tells more than a Russian highschooler can.
Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place, while this exact scenario been a watercooler talk for most Russians, both in Ukraine, and Russia itself.
Why Western experts driving the conversation on Russia, China, etc are completely blind to things known to every highschooler?
The reason is they are all having near zero personal experience outside politics, but Russia has no politics as such. None of them had that visceral back alley survival experience, which shape you for life.
> Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place, while this exact scenario been a watercooler talk for most Russians, both in Ukraine, and Russia itself.
> Why Western experts driving the conversation on Russia, China, etc are completely blind to things known to every highschooler?
I’m not sure I follow you here. You’re saying that Westerners don’t understand things even known to high schoolers in Russia. I believe you.
But then you say it’s because we try and find the best source for our information, and that also seems true. But it also seems like you’re saying that that’s the wrong course of action?
It reads like you’re telling us that our sources aren’t good enough, but also complaining that we’re trying to find good sources.
At any rate, I don’t happen to know any Russian high schoolers, so I have no way of asking them directly what it is that they talk about at the watercooler. I’d ask you, but that would just be me instinctively reaching for another “best known source”.
He is complaining that the West does a poor job of elevating well-informed commenters to prominence. Having close association to the Soviet/Russia watching community since the 1980s, I agree. The problem is that the kind of people who get the on-the-ground experience you need are not the type who play politics well and rise in organizations.
It's also because journalists are experts in nothing but journalism.
Instead of finding domain experts and giving them communications training and a platform to reach an audience, we instead find people with nothing useful to share, and give them journalism degrees.
Journalism should be an activity that our most knowledgeable people do, not our least.
> finding domain experts and giving them communications training and a platform to reach an audience
Good journalism is hard. Being a domain expert in some area doesn’t naturally translate into a talent or passion for journalism or public outreach.
Overall, I do agree with you. I just think it’s easier said than done. I’d say the legacy blue checks were often an example of what you’re describing—but those are now meaningless for evaluating if someone is a domain expert.
> Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place
Except for the specific timing, it didn’t, really. The spiralling conflict between Prigozhin and the military establishment has been heavily covered in Western media, that a catastrophic breach was a likely eventuality has been talked about by Western experts for a while, and was seen as particularly likely with the recent move to consolidate control of the PMCs under MoD command, which was viewed as directed very much at Prigozhin specifically.
Maybe you missed this blog post of Timothy Snyder [1] from October last year:
Is it a stretch to suppose that Prigozhin is sparing whatever valuable men and material he has left? He has been openly recruiting Russian prisoners to fight for Wagner in Ukraine; I would venture the supposition that he is sending them to die and keeping back the men and equipment who might have a future in some other endeavor. [...] In the overall logic that I am describing, rivals would seek to conserve whatever fighting forces they have, either to protect their own personal interests during an unpredictable time, or to make a play for Moscow.
"the best known source" is specific to each individual. I've never scene the referenced site before the post today so am unlikely to take what it says at face value with out more research. As someone who follows the news on the war by reading understandingwar.org I'm not surprised this has happened.
And of course, no citation ever given. Every Russian is woke and we’re just ignorant.
Every western expert everywhere has been saying forever that Putin wasn’t going anywhere until someone in the defense arena had enough to take on the security state. And it won’t matter how it turns out, as the new Vlad will be the same as the old Vlad.
We know all we need to know abput Russia. A people without agency looking for a new daddy.
Yeah, but its 1,000 freeway km, with no substantial existing prepared defenses short of the forces deployed in Moscow as part of the emergency plan that’s been activated, not 1,000 km defended like Bakhmut where every meter takes an eternity and extracts a high price. Its maybe a day or so away, which gives no meaningful time for mobilization and defensive deployments that would slow down ang advance.
Prigozhin may have bit off more than he can chew unless there are immediate mass defections to his side (or at least mass refusals to engage against Wagner), but there’s unlikely to be anything meaningful stopping him from reaching Moscow with whatever forces he decides to send.
"The leftovers of Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads of the Russian Federation.
Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians.
You would hear the radio broadcast of these ** now.
The impression is that part of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is finally happening, it is a bloodbath"
Prigozhin, audio statement at 00:31 BST, stating that Gerasimov "gave an order for planes to bomb moving Wagner columns". It is unclear if these columns exist in reality:
"Just now, the Head of General staff gave the order to raise planes and open fire at columns moving through civilian cars, through trucks. He doesn’t care whom to kill. They’ve been killing own civilians for 1,5 years now instead of fighting with the enemy.
I want to say thank you to the pilots who, as it just became known, refused to obey criminal orders."
Wagner PMC has responded to the pleas of RU generals for them to not to listen to Prigozhin:
> Все генералы, которые с трясущимися руками обращаются к музыкантам с призывами остановиться уже фактически подписали себе приговор. Трибунал обязательно будет. Суровикин еще ответит за сдачу Херсона.
> (Google Translate) All the generals who, with trembling hands, appeal to the musicians to stop, have actually signed their own sentence. There will be a tribunal. Surovikin will still answer for the surrender of Kherson.
A senior American intelligence official tells me for both Ukraine and U.S. intelligence, it’s a “watch and see if they destroy themselves sort of situation.” They said it was going to be a long night of watching how this develops. Said Wagner is preparing* to mobilize—it’s believed they want to head towards Moscow. Edited original tweet for better context.
Wagner's command is competent. The recent border incursions show Russia is lightly fortified, possibly Moscow, too. The wild card would appear to be the FSB. Do they tend ultranationalist? Or will they be loyal to Shoigu?
At some point the risk of dying between action and inaction becomes similar enough that the value of winning is worth it. Someone who has little to lose is more easily driven to action.
I really don’t know much about the FSB. How many forces do they have? How much equipment? We have seen that they’re capable of carrying out extraterritorial assassinations and have kept Putin in power for decades by infiltrating and breaking up and political opposition. This is a different story: a full-scale military coup by a private army.
But it remains to be seen whether or not Prigozhin would try to topple Putin or merely the army leadership in order to put himself in command of the war. The video statement I saw him make [1] would suggest he’s intending to gain control of Putin but keep him as a figurehead.
It's easy to call something a psyop, but have you got a specific reason why this would be done? It's not like that would confuse their enemy in any way, same areas need reclaiming anyway, same troops can be observed. "There's internal conflict" has been known for a while and unless there's practical impact, it doesn't seem to affect what Ukraine needs to do.
Because announcing a coup in advance is stupendously idiotic?
Ina traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings. They announcing a change of government and people turn up to work Monday morning.
On Friday evening?! They must be copying the failed Turkey coup that had to move forwards because they were uncovered.
> a traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings
This is a military coup. The army is in Zaporizhia. Moscow is defended by the FSB and national guard. Prigozhin needs to rally disgruntled forces to his side to enable him to move his troops. Quietly maneuvering would hand the narrative to the regime.
UK MoD estimated earlier in the year that 97% of the Russian Army was deployed to Ukraine.
The 1st Guards Tank Army, which includes the elite units traditionally tasked with Moscow's defense, the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and the 4th Guards Tank Division has been heavily committed in Ukraine for most of the war.
There is a defensive plan activated and deployment of forces in Moscow, sure, but Wagner has a lot of troops and combat experience, and what Russia has kept available at home mostly aren’t regular army troops, but Nationa Guard troops mainly used for intimidating civilians.
Nobody said Moscow is undefended. Just less able to defend itself than usual. Much of the Russian Western military district is deployed towards Ukraine. Sensibly, Putin’s most loyal should have been held back. But the war is going terribly. If his loyalists were forward deployed, that changes the calculus.
> Because announcing a coup in advance is stupendously idiotic?
There are different kinds of blows directed at leadership that work primarily by surprise seizure or elimonation of key personnel and/or facilities, perhaps the most traditional “military coup”.
There are mass mutinies by military formations, which are essentially armed direct-action protests by troops, often under their established leadership. A sizable formation declaring them and calling on others to join is not at all unheard of. Functionally, they can succeed as a form of coup or half-coup (replacing the top leadership or forcing concessions) while retaining the basic state infrastructure, or end up as a key part of a more complete revolution (or, obviously, just fail). They are a very real historical thing.
It does look that way. Where would the "Wagner" group get new weapons supplies for a successful coup? The CIA?
I've heard multiple times that the "Wagner" group has actually been set up by the FSB and that this Prigozhin character is just a front man. Which makes sense, because how would a single individual set up such a large military organization?
It is possible that the troops have become loyal to him. They'd still have to fight the entire Russian, Chechen, Belarus, ... armies.
Why the psyop? Last time that guy made compromising videos was shortly before the fall of Bakhmut as a distraction. For all we know he is still FSB.
true: but looking at whats being posted on telegram and twitter, it looks like the russian security services (which probably weren't affected by the russian army recruitment draft) still have a lot of people (and brand new shiny jeeps and afvs, despite the shortage of new vehicles in ukraine for them).
It makes perfect sense if you’ve been following the Russian factional infighting, and a lot more sense than it being a psyop does. Whose psyop? To what end?
I was thinking “oh great opportunity for Ukraine to push forward”, then “oh, if it’s fake and Ukraine pushes forward and over-extends it’ll go badly for them”
But if you and I can figure that out in five minutes from around the world it’s unlikely that battle-hardened war leaders will fall for a trap.
It could be a psyop, but it's far from absurd. Tensions between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Putin have been high. Most notable were the public threats from Wagner to pull out of Bakhmut due to lack of supplies. If anyone has the potential to seize power away from Putin, it's Prigozhin.
Prigozhin has an army, one which is vital to Putin's war effort. Do you really think Prigozhin wouldn't turn on Putin given the opportunity?
I expected it to be better planned and coordinated. This sounds to me like a vanilla power struggle. “Sign here”, “fuck off”, “sign or die”, “try it”
This can all be settled with a phone call.
“What do you want?”
“Respect, autonomy, support”
“Done”
“Turning around now”
Who knows, too soon. But Prigozhin did seemingly lose to Shoigu earlier when Putin agreed to have all the "external" soldiers to be under the ShoiguúMoD command.
So this may very well be the final fight between the two.
> оявилась информация, что несколько частей, в том числе 45 бригада, отказались выйти из казарм против Вагнера. Кстати, в ВДВ всегда симпатизировали Пригожину, - ВЧК-ОГПУ
> information appeared that several units, including the 45th brigade, refused to leave the barracks against Wagner. By the way, in the Airborne Forces they always sympathized with Prigozhin, - VChK-OGPU
Prigozhin, via AP Wagner channel, calls for Rosgvardia to join him, or "things will go badly":
"The most promising politician appeals to the National Guard (Rosgvardia) with an offer that is better not refused. Obeying criminal orders and attempting to interfere with the planned campaign of Justice will end badly for employees who have made the wrong choice."
Something is definitely happening, there's lot's of videos of military vehicles on the streets of multiple russian cities and the main tv channel just announced some kind of an emergency broadcast.
The Wagner attempted coup (marching on the Russian MoD) is real, but it won't result in serious regime change, only a weakening of Russian position in Ukraine.
Sad to see how many people supported an invasion and slaughter of so many people because of what the Russian state says about things like NATO. Hope this is a wake up call.
If you want to follow the unfolding events, Crowdstrike founder, https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch is a qualified and educated source (predicted invasion 3 months before)
My guess: its a tactic designed to embolden the enemy and keep them committed to a failing strategy.
Bakhmut was a meat grinder, but as long as the hope of victory could be kept alive in the Ukrainian army, they would keep sending their troops to slaughter. So we got all of these videos about chaos & ammo running out on the Russian side. And the Ukrainians obligingly poured manpower into an almost-perfectly-surrounded killbox. Saw how that turned out.
I'd bet its the same deal with the current offensive, which has been similarly ruinous for Ukraine.
Yes, they were defending in an urban area, but I think this matters less than you might expect. Russia's strategy was to saturate the Ukrainians with artillery, and they undoubtedly have superiority in this area. This kind of warfare basically negates the advantages of urban defence. Sure, it took a long time to make progress, but by design it limits the casualties of the attacker. I'd wager that most Ukrainians that died there never even saw a Russian solider.
Truthfully, no one really knows how many died (on either side), but Wagner stayed in the field vs 50-odd Ukr. brigades. How do you reconcile that with a favourable casualty ratio?
It does not make a lot of sense. If I were Ukrainian military, I'd stop fighting and just waited for the enemy to tear itself apart, only then advanced.
They'll probably want to keep the pressure on rather than letting the Russians get over it and regroup. The Ukrainians can't know the result of the infighting so keep going and hope the infighting improves their cause.
So far there are no confirmations (videos or photos) of Prigozhin's previous statements that Wagner mercenaries have allegedly entered Rostov-on-Don. Local media don't confirm that.
Doesn't read like a good source. Citing the loose cannon does not make a civil war.
But yea, Prigozhin has been hinting that he considers civil war an option when he commented on the retreat from Bakhmut: “we will leave on the 10th of May, and we will wait until the Russian people need us, which we believe is going to happen really soon if you look at how our leaders are acting.”[0]
From my armchair, it doesn't look like a bunch of mercenaries could meaningfully operate within Russia. They'd need decisive support from branches of the regular army. So the question is whether he has alliances. As long as they haven't revealed themselves, this will stay cold. Or Prigozhin will die real quick.
Taking what we're seeing at face value, Prigozhin is credibly threatening to march on Moscow. He isn't announcing anything in advance, he's using public channels to sway leaders to his side.
My question is how this relates to the words “The Prince” ? Is that a reference to Machiavelli? Or Prince Myshkin from Dostoyevsky or some other Prince? A novel, a poem… I just want to know what in particular the words “the prince” refer to here?
In Machiavelli's The Prince, he gives an advice on how to extinguish a rebellion in a province while making a point and example for the other provinces.
He advices the Prince to secretly send a general there and execute everyone in some cities without exception.
Then he advices him to execute the general for being "rogue", overly zealous, and punish him for what he did.
The Prince is strong, so there can't be a rebellion.
The prince is just too, he can't allow bloodbaths against his beloved subjects... etc.
I don't know for sure what the heck they're doing there, but this man doesn't seem to be aware of being a pawn.
They can say later that it was a deception whatsoever but he's still a pawn.
This is just armored vehicles rolling down a road. No context, no way to validate timestamp, no nothing. Even if it was precautionary stationing of troops, as done when the National Guard is activated, it doesn't mean the country is undergoing a revolution. Sorry.
Of course - it is unfolding right now. We'll get a better picture later, but for now I'm posting what I can get (along with sources so everyone can follow up/make their mind).
Why would they want to? If this does escalate enough, it would make more sense for them to redouble the efforts for their offensive - they still have plenty of reserves that haven't entered the fray yet.
And then, if the plan to cut off Crimea succeeds, they could try to negotiate with Russia - on much stronger terms.
And Ukraine has the convenient position of just telling Wagner forces something along the lines of "you're a bunch of war criminals, but anyone observed retreating into Russia isn't going to be pursued" if they want to let the infighting do the maximum amount of damage.
I don't know, when the board changes you look for openings. On the military side, I would use the distraction to extract battlefield gains. On the diplomatic side, maybe Putin is willing to give up more, now, than he (or his successor) will later.
Ukraine struggles with ideas what to do with unloyal population on ukranian occupied territories. Main ideas are "we just mass deport locals to Russia" (FTR that's a genocide and not because of destination) and "we just forbid russian propaganda there and everyone would magically start love us and accept ukrainization".
And you are talking about russian territories that combined have size of half of Ukraine and which population is extremely unloyal to ukranian government.
If you are talking about what to do with unloyal locals in Donetsk and Luhansk, I took it from ukranian propaganda, not russian.
Russian government and it's mass-media has no trust in any questions (especially in Ukraine-related), no sane person trusts them, even ultra-Z-pro-war-vatniks (if we can call them sane).
Many of my close friends are from the temporarily occupied territories. They speak russian, but they hate russia.
They all fucking hate russia.
For your claim to be so wildly inaccurate shows you haven't even a shred of credibility. And to accuse the Ukrainian government of genocide is disgusting.
I didn't say that they love Russia. Heck, even many russians hate Russia the way it is now.
What I am saying is that even reintegration of population of occupied territories is not an easy task. That's why in ukranian public space there's no easy plan of doing this because they know would be a hard work (mass deporations wouldn't be accepted by EU and US for reason I stated and "we just turn off russian propaganda" is necessary but not sufficient by itself).
And you are talking about integration of 13+ mil population of your direct enemy that is even harder work. What for?
All of these regions except Belgorod cannot fully supply own budgets and they recieve dotations from federal budget (even Belgorod barely does this and tearing established economic connections with other russian regions would severe it's ecomonic abilities). So it's not an economic reason like "we would tax them to get money".
Next what about integration in ukranian society. Ukraine nation was indeed forged in this war, but russians never were part of it (ukranian society). So this means that Ukraine would have to federalise (which it clearly avoided) or it will try to ukrainise russian population (that would create additional tensions). So for the point of internal politics this would only bring additional problems too.
Now maybe this will help in internations politics somehow? Ukraine is clearly directing itself towards eurointegration. One of the reasons why EU was uncertain about Ukraine joining it was size of the country. Now after ukranian martyrship that's unlikely to be an issue but it definitely would be if Ukraine somehow gets 50% bigger. At least it won't help with direction towards EU.
I don't know ukranian politics wery well and I don't see any viable reasons for Ukraine to join these russian regions.
But maybe you being more familiar with what happens inside Ukraine can enlighten me because I may be missing something or see some aspects in wrong light.
Nobody knows you. Whatever you want to argue, you're going to have to rely on references and coherence, because nobody cares about being shamed by anonymous commenter #1,234,567,890.
Sounds better than sabblerattling with nuclear warheads.
Ukraine is still receiving weapons. Agaisnt all odds, the west has recognized they had better at least keep the war in Ukraine, not allow Russia to extend their frontiers.
The terrorist regime in russia is collapsing. Ideally, the terrorist state of russia will be completely formatted, with all those loyal to putin arrested or killed.
This is the best prospect for peace on this planet. Are you not happy about this?
You know the guy has been pushing for war economy, closed borders, full mobilization and total war? Stabilizing my ass — if he ever takes power, it's likely to become even worse for everyone involved.
> the guy has been pushing for war economy, closed borders, full mobilization and total war
He's also saying the war was a mistake.
Prigozhin's base is ultranationalist–that's what's propelling him now. If he succeeds in taking the reins of the state, his base and thus incentives shift. The new rhetoric may reflect him realizing he's closer to that than anyone realized.
Zerohedge, which is basically just a Russian propaganda source, is saying that the Wagner chief is already attempting to walk back his comments. Which kind of makes sense, as a moderately sized PMC has approximately zero chance against the might of a nation. So I'm not really sure that anything is gonna happen here. Hope I'm wrong, though.
Related tangent: I predict that certain political movements in the US and Europe will implode if the Putin regime does. Would love to see if I'm right. Making popcorn.
I wouldn't be so sure. Prigozhin founded the Internet Research Agency (Russian troll farm) for Putin back in 2013. He's the go-to guy for disinformation.
What kind of reaction people expect from this hackernews post?
Anything that goes against the dogma will get shut down?
What's the veracity of this article to begin with?
In the age of digital transformation, what are the chances we are reading fake news from the Ukrainian front?
They attack each other? well, if they killed some russians and stole their missiles, it's easy to create confusion on the adversary camp, capture a general, train a model and spread fake news with deep fakes etc etc
Until we get a proper source, we can only speculate
Few days ago reports were saying that the counter offensive was a complete failure, so who to trust? where is the truth?
Multiple reports in multiple major outlets are reporting that he is accusing Russia of attacking his troops. I think the coup part is speculative but the accusation is a heavy one and implies that he feels at war with Moscow already.
Edit: Quick followup, NY Time has it top of the fold. Russia is accusing Wagner of fomenting a coup and the Kremlin is deploying armor to the streets of Moscow. This isn't definitely happening but it's a credible story.
I am not sorry to break the charm, but there is "SOMETHING" about it on Russian Television. You can't believe all details, but now both parts (East and West) are reporting that this is happening.
Update: 19:28 Moscow time.
- Situation is normal in cities and oblasts: as in, there seem to be no panic but people are definitely reading the news.
- Everyone support the government - although I find Russians to be highly political apathetic (which is one of the major roots of the problems in the country IME). The ones who'd soft corner for Wagner also seem to note that Prigozhin should've picked a better time for this. Wagner posters for recruitment are being removed. In all sense, it has fallen from grace.
- Wagner definitely does not have a high proportion of supporters amongst civilians. Within the army's junior ranks (and in Rosgvardiya) there are people that are more sympathetic to it, hence, why they do not explicitly used force against them. Rumors here are that this is one of the reasons why Ahmat forces were sent to Rostov.
- Wagner forces themselves seem to have strict instructions not to use show of force against esp. civilians in order to not alienate them.
- I'd take Western-news with some salt as well because this is a good time to mix information-war as well.
- Moscow is on high alert, people aren't suggested to make too many public movements, and Monday is declared holiday for most public institutions. Many dense places (malls etc.) have been evacuated. I believe this is to ensure that civilians are neither impacted nor used as hostages.
- For best/live updates, use Telegram channels (in Russian) or Tass (in Russian, use your BS-sensor accordingly)