It's easy to call something a psyop, but have you got a specific reason why this would be done? It's not like that would confuse their enemy in any way, same areas need reclaiming anyway, same troops can be observed. "There's internal conflict" has been known for a while and unless there's practical impact, it doesn't seem to affect what Ukraine needs to do.
Because announcing a coup in advance is stupendously idiotic?
Ina traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings. They announcing a change of government and people turn up to work Monday morning.
On Friday evening?! They must be copying the failed Turkey coup that had to move forwards because they were uncovered.
> a traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings
This is a military coup. The army is in Zaporizhia. Moscow is defended by the FSB and national guard. Prigozhin needs to rally disgruntled forces to his side to enable him to move his troops. Quietly maneuvering would hand the narrative to the regime.
UK MoD estimated earlier in the year that 97% of the Russian Army was deployed to Ukraine.
The 1st Guards Tank Army, which includes the elite units traditionally tasked with Moscow's defense, the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and the 4th Guards Tank Division has been heavily committed in Ukraine for most of the war.
There is a defensive plan activated and deployment of forces in Moscow, sure, but Wagner has a lot of troops and combat experience, and what Russia has kept available at home mostly aren’t regular army troops, but Nationa Guard troops mainly used for intimidating civilians.
Nobody said Moscow is undefended. Just less able to defend itself than usual. Much of the Russian Western military district is deployed towards Ukraine. Sensibly, Putin’s most loyal should have been held back. But the war is going terribly. If his loyalists were forward deployed, that changes the calculus.
> Because announcing a coup in advance is stupendously idiotic?
There are different kinds of blows directed at leadership that work primarily by surprise seizure or elimonation of key personnel and/or facilities, perhaps the most traditional “military coup”.
There are mass mutinies by military formations, which are essentially armed direct-action protests by troops, often under their established leadership. A sizable formation declaring them and calling on others to join is not at all unheard of. Functionally, they can succeed as a form of coup or half-coup (replacing the top leadership or forcing concessions) while retaining the basic state infrastructure, or end up as a key part of a more complete revolution (or, obviously, just fail). They are a very real historical thing.
It does look that way. Where would the "Wagner" group get new weapons supplies for a successful coup? The CIA?
I've heard multiple times that the "Wagner" group has actually been set up by the FSB and that this Prigozhin character is just a front man. Which makes sense, because how would a single individual set up such a large military organization?
It is possible that the troops have become loyal to him. They'd still have to fight the entire Russian, Chechen, Belarus, ... armies.
Why the psyop? Last time that guy made compromising videos was shortly before the fall of Bakhmut as a distraction. For all we know he is still FSB.
true: but looking at whats being posted on telegram and twitter, it looks like the russian security services (which probably weren't affected by the russian army recruitment draft) still have a lot of people (and brand new shiny jeeps and afvs, despite the shortage of new vehicles in ukraine for them).
It makes perfect sense if you’ve been following the Russian factional infighting, and a lot more sense than it being a psyop does. Whose psyop? To what end?
I was thinking “oh great opportunity for Ukraine to push forward”, then “oh, if it’s fake and Ukraine pushes forward and over-extends it’ll go badly for them”
But if you and I can figure that out in five minutes from around the world it’s unlikely that battle-hardened war leaders will fall for a trap.
It could be a psyop, but it's far from absurd. Tensions between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Putin have been high. Most notable were the public threats from Wagner to pull out of Bakhmut due to lack of supplies. If anyone has the potential to seize power away from Putin, it's Prigozhin.
Prigozhin has an army, one which is vital to Putin's war effort. Do you really think Prigozhin wouldn't turn on Putin given the opportunity?
I expected it to be better planned and coordinated. This sounds to me like a vanilla power struggle. “Sign here”, “fuck off”, “sign or die”, “try it”
This can all be settled with a phone call.
“What do you want?”
“Respect, autonomy, support”
“Done”
“Turning around now”
Who knows, too soon. But Prigozhin did seemingly lose to Shoigu earlier when Putin agreed to have all the "external" soldiers to be under the ShoiguúMoD command.
So this may very well be the final fight between the two.
