Prigozhin seems to be playing this savvily. Extremely savvily. He isn't directly threatening Putin. There is a face-saving change in which Shoigu et al are executed and Prigozhin and Putin split their cookies. Putin can frame it as discovering they lied to him, and possibly even re-set expectations for the war in Ukraine.
Totally an armchair opinion, but I think Prigozhin is a toast and he knows it. He cannot fight (troops hated, plus ranks decimated in Bakhmut) and cannot hide (no one will take him). He may be just trying to go down with a bang. My 2c.
Wagner are actualy the coup masters, that was like their main job.
Wagner's bread and butter before the war was getting control of small countries and especially gold and diamond mines and other valuable resources in Africa.
Maybe Prygozhyn reckons russia is about as weak as one of those countries now and he can take it. He has some popular support. Sure russia has the nukes, but they cant use them to stop a coup, are they gonna nuke themselves?
Wagner definitely can fight and I think this is a real danger for Putin. The invasion did not go well and he's vulnerable to more hawkish members of the military who wish to escalate the war.
It's not guaranteed that units will agree to deploy against other Russians. Not guaranteed that if they deploy they will fight. Not guaranteed that if they fight they will win.
Wagner has crossed the Rubicon and now it's do or die for them. They'll fight hard and are probably the most capable individual fighting force in Russia right now. Biggest challenge they face is air strikes. But if they brought SAMs with them or the air force won't bomb things will get dicey quickly.
> Wagner has crossed the Rubicon
Prigozhin did, and maybe a few of his top lieutenants, but Wagner is not a uniform structure. Wagner is a mix of:
A) Older, experienced soldiers of fortune types. They did tours in Africa and other places and know how to fight. They are not too numerous and they have absolutely no interest in politics, fairness and especially any conflict with regular Russian forces. They are doing the job, they want to get paid, but instead of the paycheck the latest adventure is likely to stamp them with "treason".
B) New cannon fodder, hired from poor regions for decent (for their area) money after the invasion. They are not experienced fighters and they suffered greatly in Bakhmut. This is not your coup makers. Putin tells them to come home, they will.
C) Prison rabble, taken from prisons often with 10+ year of their sentence remaining. Their contract is that if they survive a 6-month tour they get remaining sentence voided. There are a lot of them. Getting killed in Bakhmut was a part of the contract. But this march gives them nothing. Instead of walking free they will likely end up back in prison, with new scars. If Russian army offers to honor the original contract (freedom for a 6-month tour), they will just as happily fight for it.
I do not think there is any desire at Wagner to fight the Russian army. In fact this may be a theater, designed in Kremlin to tighten the screws at home and as a side benefit to snuff out Prigozhin who seems to be getting unhinged lately. But we shall see...
I think you are underestimating the potential of a shared trauma experience in Bakhmut and a new motivating factor of "revenge". Whether it's enough is uncertain, but it has to factor.
What if the whole thing is about Putin setting up some lower level fall guys for a loss in Ukraine? Prigozhin maybe? Provoke him into doing something crazy, take him out, then claim he is responsible for failure on the front or even that he's a traitor and was working with Ukraine or something.
Prigozhin seems to be playing this savvily. Extremely savvily. He isn't directly threatening Putin. There is a face-saving change in which Shoigu et al are executed and Prigozhin and Putin split their cookies. Putin can frame it as discovering they lied to him, and possibly even re-set expectations for the war in Ukraine.