Clearly a great company in many ways, but if I attempt to quantify how great in terms of a reasonable market cap, I get maybe $30B, not $100B.
Does anyone have a plausible model of how Airbnb can ever make over 5x more revenue than it’s making today? Is the $100B market cap building in an assumption that it’s going to invent new business lines and push them through its distribution channel, or what?
Top line needs to keep growing 30%/yr for next 5 years, then reach a stable state of 30%/yr earnings+growth yield...
Then if that optimistic scenario comes true, congratulations, you can expect a modest 10%/yr yield investing at $100B today. I believe that’s roughly the math.
For the past few years they've been getting into longer term rentals. Imagine as a landlord you could just hire AirBnb to manage your rental house, and they could handle making it short or long term based on demand, managing the whole thing, doing leases and buying furniture as necessary, etc.
Basically if you own a property you say "Hey AirBnb, use this to make money and give me some of it".
That is a huge addressable market, and one that is adjacent to their existing market and only getting bigger.
I found my rental on Zillow. Imagine you could hire Zillow to manage your rental house... it's an interesting idea, yet Zillow is only valued at $11B. Why not say Zillow is $100B because that's such a cool hypothetical opportunity? Because cool opportunities need to be valued at low valuations until they're more validated, so that the investors get a 100x upside if they succeed, not 10%/yr yield as the bull case.
I mean, yes, that would be great, but Airbnb do very little around the management end of things - they take bookings, manage bad situations, they provide a unified listings and ratings platform, and they provide flexible management tools - but the control is all in the hands of the host, and the advice Airbnb gives (“Opportunities”) such as “Have you considered allowing one night stays?”, “Allow free parking!” is generally in Airbnb’s interests, not the hosts’.
So, while it’s a market they could address, they don’t seem to be heading in that direction, rather, more optimisation of the current model, adjacent services (experiences, possibly dining from some mood music I’ve heard from them), and an increased focus on the higher end travel market, where margins and commissions to be earned are greater.
So, at the moment, it’s more “Hey Airbnb, I’ll use this to make money and I’ll give you some of it”, and I can’t see how they could pivot to providing a full service. Who gets called when the boiler breaks? Who handles the guest who broke a light-switch and is now in the dark? Who helps the guest who can’t figure out where to park in an unfamiliar place? The list goes on, but I think it’s these “last mile” deliverables and expectations that prevent them from getting deeper into hospitality management.
That is very interesting. Do you have a link to more info about this? The only thing I could find was where they advertise their third party property management partners, not where they do it themselves. The service you describe could be incredibly attractive and have huge potential.
Right now their platform just lets you rent for longer terms, but what I'm saying is that they could get into property management as a way to continue growing.
That's not a tech business though, you need local cleaners and handymen and locksmiths and phone lines and invoicing and... obviously that can get subcontracted, but that bites into margins and service quality.
If I were a property owner I'd prefer to build a relationship with a local business managing hundreds of apartments than an online multinational support portal based giant.
As someone who has been managing properties for 25 years, I'm well aware of that. But it's also not a far leap from "rent this house for a month" (which they already do) to "rent this house for a year".
Earnings-based valuations are so 20th century. The way to justify $100B market cap today is "I can sell these shares to someone else at $120B valuation next year".
Line goes up is the motto for the 2020s, and assets are valued on everything but actual earning potential.
It's a bet on margin expansion + growth. It's quite reasonable that ABNB could achieve 30%+ operating margins at scale. That along with some modest growth would mean a $100b valuation is on the higher end of reasonable, but not entirely unreasonable given the company's moat and potential.
Also if they reach that level of profitability you have to factor in things like buyback programs which for big tech companies tend to be very healthy. With buybacks the valuation doesn't necessarily need to expand for you to make money on your investment.
This is just my opinion, but I tend to think it's better to over pay a little for quality companies because at worse you might buy something that's a bit overvalued, but over the long-term your investment will probably still work out well. If you look for companies that are cheap you often buy trash and in those cases you can end up with far worse returns over longer periods of time.
For what it's worth I've been looking to invest in ABNB for a while and although I don't think the valuation is too unreasonable the risk/reward still isn't there for me personally.
I agree with you. I think you are picking up on the fact that interest rates have been so low for so long, and people are looking for returns that they are just speculating/gambling. It's commonplace to find unicorns or popular brands over valued on fundamental analysis in today's stock market.
That said fundamental analysis is pretty absurd if you process that really all most people are getting is intrinsically a meaningless vote/s as a shareholder. Analysis on fundamentals feels like being stuck on the gold standard. It sounds good till you think about how golds value is speculative in and of itself.
You can be a self proclaimed "king of valuation" like Aswath Donodaran and claim that Airbnb is worth 30B, but the market says otherwise. Aswath was wrong on Amazon for his entire life, yet he still acts like he is the king. If you're so confident in your 30B valuation of Airbnb, put your money where your mouth is and short it and show us like the people on r/WSB do.
No one can have a different opinion on a valuation from the market?
It's unreasonable to challenge everyone who has a different valuation to short the stock especially since even the market's valuation can swing wildly from day-to-day.
What's the valuation of a popular stock like Gamestop? Ask ten different analysts and they will probably give ten different valuations based on different reasonings.
If no one came-up with a different valuation then everyone would just pile on index passive investing but that isn't the case and active investors usually see a different valuation from the market.
TLDR: Normal for people to have different valuation from the market and weird to get so confrontational over someone having a different opinion.
I think one of the key takeaways for me is just how important the 29 day+ stay is for them as an emerging category which sounds right to me... in part because I enjoy that style of travel but also because lower than that Airbnb is just not very economical and many of the short term listings are basically like hotel rooms anyways, so why not go there if you're only in a city for 5 days and need to check in at 10pm.
That wouldn’t be the main risk in my country. It would be people using your home as a brothel and fucking everything up.
If AirBnB can provide a way for that to not happen, or at least for it to stop within a few days with our strong renter-protection laws then they could basically replace every long term rental business in Denmark.
Nope. I got screwed bad over this. took my parents on a trip to london over NYE a few years ago. Had a pretty expensive AIRbnb rented. obviously nye is totally sold out. Including basically all hotels. They canceled a few hours before the flight.
Luckily I found a hotel literally last couple rooms and very very expensive for what it was.
I couldn't get airbnb to do shit besides give a refund for the airbnb reservation and I think maybe I got 250 or 500 or something negligible.
They 'try' to find an alternative on the platform but wouldn't pay for my hotel (s now need 2 rooms). And since there are no airbnbs available... let alone in the city and similar.
I have never stayed airbnb again only hotels.
if they allow hosts to pull that crap they should pay for alternate hotel lodging.
Similar experience here. Had booked a fairly expensive place in the country for my extended family, over a holiday weekend, to celebrate a milestone birthday for my mother. Host cancelled a couple of days out and literally nothing else available anywhere in that region.
After causing a sufficient amount of fuss because of the urgency of it all it eventually got escalated to someone more senior but the result was the same. Best they could do was a refund, no recourse for the host, with the extra salt in the wounds with the parting words of something like "I can provide you no further help today as it's a holiday weekend and I am leaving now and will not return until Tuesday". To this day I still suspect that the host simply got a higher priced offer given it was a popular weekend that had an unseasonably great weather forecast and so they cancelled on us. No effort to find us alternate accomodation. No refund sufficient to cover the costs of doing it ourselves at such late notice. Nothing that came close to addressing the fact multiple families had now wasted their money on plans they couldn't do.
Unfortunately it's not the first time it had happened either. The story has been the same, the only saving grace in the other situations is we'd been able to work out our own Plan B. I'd never use Airbnb again unless I was confident there was a Plan B I could execute on with only an hours notice. That limits its usefulness to out of season and in areas with a multitude of options, or where I am at least ok significantly adjusting my planned location.
Airlines overbook and will try to get out of it by refunding your ticket. Refuse the refund. They'll up the price a few times. You can get up to an upgraded ticket on a later flight + hotel stay if the stars align.
It's worth knowing that most courts worldwide consider a ticket or reservation to be a binding agreement to provide the services, and to accept liability when the services cannot be provided.
That means if they boot you from the flight or hotel room, they have to pay for your costs to find a replacement.
Yes, many companies have terms that try to limit their liability, but those terms usually aren't enforceable.
EU rules allow this with at least 14 days notice. Less than that, and the airline needs to provide compensation — €250, €400 or €600 depending on the length of the flight.
Also in my experience airlines will go out of there way to help and rebook. Sometimes it is the next day though which sucks but isn't totally apples to oranges ;)
No. They may give you a voucher, however for us the voucher was only $100 (so far less than the additional cost of rebooking at the last minute) and secondly, the voucher had restrictions on which bookings you could use it on, and it expired within a month. I.e. It’s fairly useless.
If the host cancels, you lose out the opportunity, but only get back what you've already deposited and a voucher (which doesn't cover the higher cost of a new booking!)?
that sucks. I think a host should only be allowed to cancel if they offer another place with similar features (like room number, and location) for the same amount of time.
Yes, they do. Hosts are strongly disincentivised from cancelling on guests at any notice, for any reason. On the one occasion where the apartment I own and let on Airbnb was unavailable at short notice, as the boiler (new, recently serviced) failed spectacularly, I ensured the guests were in equivalent accommodation or better (ended up better, as the only thing I could find with a few hours notice was a nine bedroom house), as cancelling would mean losing my superhost status (only book with superhosts and you will more likely than not avoid the cancellation problem), and failing to provide an adequate service could result in a poor review, which again could not only cost me superhost, but also tank the business - negative reviews hugely impact your search ranking and conversion rate.
So, while there isn’t a huge amount of recompense in the event it happens (I’ve been on the receiving end, literally arrived for them to tell me that sorry, they can’t do this week - it sucks), they do penalise hosts who do this, and will almost always take the side of the guest in any dispute.
I meant not really mechanisms to stop it and it was once in several times of it happening to me. Other times they've just recommended other airbnbs that were far less of a fit instead
They KINDA do, but their support is so horrible and slow you have to book a hotel room for a few days or figure something out while you spend a few days working the details out
How many days did they reimburse you for? The OP is talking about 29+ day stays.
If your long term stay is cancelled a few days before it can be pretty much impossible to find an alternative. On both occasions that this has happened to me, Airbnb has offered only a $100 voucher.
The reality is long term stay on Airbnb is a risky bet. Still often worth the risk, but something to be aware of.
Ahh yeah it was only for a few days, and that’s when I was going to really cheap airbnbs like 6 years ago. Hasn’t happened since then and I use airbnb ALL the time (I do lots of 1-month stays as well).
I would guess that the same can happen with all other alternatives. Perhaps not for a hotel but who would want to stay in a hotel for a month? (Also that would be a huge expense)
daily rates at hotels and airbnbs add up way too fast
monthly stays at airbnb's are much closer to the local rental price, usually 10-20% above a local lease, but without the issue of actually leasing
monthly stays are also furnished (whereas it can be very hard to find a furnished place to lease at all!)
monthly stays also get around most short term stay restrictions created specifically in reaction to AirBnB, which makes it much more comfortable for someone that booked to not have to worry about who we talk to in the building or nearby
I love being a situation to travel this way. Its pretty amazing to see that its currently become a crucial portion of their revenues.
Very much not my experience in Europe. I’d happily live in Airbnbs full time if the price was +~20% long term lease but in my experience the price is >100% even for 1 month stays.
The problem, at least in Europe, is that so many Airbnbs are now being operated as “rent to rent” where a company (or individual) rents property long term specifically so they can then in turn rent it out on Airbnb (often through an intermediary that manages the property for them). The margins they need for confident profitability (considering voids etc) are ~100% over the long term rental cost.
I’m astonished you’ve found that the prices are so similar: which location(s) is this in?
I just moved out of an Airbnb I stayed in for a month where my average nightly cost was, quite literally, 200% over the amount that I would pay if I leased the property myself — and that’s not in peak season, and after negotiating.
5 years ago the cost was pretty similar but not now that Airbnb has become an industry and people have worked out how to squeeze every drop of profit out of it.
I am actually doing it right now, I pay about 1.2k for something that should be around 900 all included. Yes it's more but it's not double or triple as you suggest.
Where in the UK? I won’t go as far as to say it’s impossible that this is true, but I haven’t come across anywhere like that in the last year. Are you renting a full home or a room? A desirable location (a major city) or the middle of nowhere? I can’t imagine any UK city where you could find an apartment on Airbnb for £1200/month — at best you’d get a room for that price. If you’re willing to rent a room then sure, you’ll be able to benefit from people who don’t care about the economics, but for actual apartments, the economics don’t make sense.
(And if you’re willing to rent a room, you can pay less than the long term local price with some savvy)
Yeah — house shares are a totally different prospect. For clarity, I’m talking about whole homes, as an alternative to renting — I thought that was the context of the discussion, sorry if that wasn’t clear!
Airbnb I can make my own meals. Even if I don’t ordering delivery is much easier than at a hotel. Also easier to wash my own clothes. Usually no Wi-Fi problems. Also easier to go exactly where I need / want to be.
One of Brian Chesky's tweets in the linked thread mentions "On May 11, we’ll introduce the biggest change to Airbnb in a decade". I wonder if it's something catering to the digital nomad/work-from-anywhere crowd rather than the current focus (vacationers).
As far as I can think, there are two possibilities:
- They are getting into the rental market, basically longer term rentals with short-term leases or something like that.
- They are getting into property management under their own brand, where they will manage Airbnb branded properties (small Hotels and homes). Something similar to what Oyo rooms (https://www.oyorooms.com/us/) does.
Checkin can be a hassle. It seems to depend on the city what the Airbnb checkin culture is. Sometimes you are given a security code (convenient), sometimes it’s inconvenient, having to meet the host at a predetermined time. In Vancouver, three times in a row I was given a security code and given instructions to go to a convenience store with a special locker, 4-5 blocks away from the unit, and do the reverse at checkout. Major hassle.
And it’s usually not cheaper than a hotel anymore. Now I only use it for large groups for places like cabins.
My wife and I are planning to become “digital nomads” for a few years[1] and my initial thought was AirBnbs. We decided to rent an AirBnb in another city as a test run. This was months ago. We haven’t stayed there yet.
During the intervening time, as I thought about it and did more research on prices, we landed on we would be better off looking for Homewood Suites[2] and skip Airbnb. This isn’t a marketing pitch for Hilton, I am just most familiar with the brand. The other chains may be just as good.
1. We always know what we are getting. I can just go to the Hilton app and pick a hotel. I know I’m going to have a two room suite, kitchen, a work area, a small gym downstairs, probably a pool. It’s going to be hopefully well cleaned and if not, at least we know we have someone on staff.
2. We save 15%-20% overall between the highest end Amex cobranded card when booking stays via points and accumulating points any other time we spend by charging it.
3. I also travel for work and stay in Hilton hotels. I get reimbursed and get to earn points.
4. We never have to worry about cancellations.
[1] there is no way we are selling our house and trying to buy later on with the crazy market. We are renting it out.
[2] This is not an ad or endorsement. I just happen to always book an Embassy Suites for business trips and we prefer staying there for vacations. Homewood Suites is a cheaper brand. But still better than their lowest brand Home2Suites.
I also like having backing of a reputable chain. I’ll look into homewood suites.
If i need a hotel, usually I first try Marriot as that’s the one I collect points on. I like their cheaper brand Aloft, each hotel has a free thing usually attached to the bar, such as billiards or in one case a retro arcade. If nothing on there works for me, or if I need an apartment/kitchen, I use booking.com as a search engine. Then I book directly, unless booking.com is more flexible.
Booking directly means you can usually call the front desk quickly and change your checkin/checkout dates and often can get early checkin and late checkout. Last month I was traveling for work and booked directly. Not only could I check in at 10am and take a nap, when plans changed I spent 5 minutes on the phone to extend one stay and shorten the next stay. My colleague used a travel agency and when he called them he got put on hold while they called booking.com! Ultimately he (well our company) paid for 2 hotel rooms that night. It’s even more important to book flights directly for the same reason.
These days, Covid can easily change your plans. I’ve not gotten Covid yet, but I’ve had flights cancelled due to it, and once had to change my flights because my pre-travel Covid test was in the wrong format to return home.
I’d say the main downside is location. I don’t think Airbnb would be cheaper than a homewood suites, and I’d probably sleep better at a hotel than the average Airbnb mattress. But the typical inexpensive chain hotel locations are concrete islands on the city periphery. Often old inexpensive independent motels have better locations (and cheaper rates), but I wouldn’t count on Wi-Fi working.
If I’m taking a vacation, I’m going to stay in a slightly more upscale Embassy Suites mostly for the better breakfast and the free happy hour. I still get the two room suite. I’m also going to stay closer to the city center when our plans are to do something everyday and we would be using Uber to get around. The same applies to business trips.
But, in our case when we are planning to live there and I’m working and we will have a car, comfortable sleeping arrangements, a separate workspace, decent WiFi [1], and a kitchen are far more important. We can drive to the city on the weekend and in the evenings.
[1] my backup plan for bad WiFi is using my phone and my iPad as hotspots. T-mobile has unlimited hot spot with 50Gb high speed hot spot for each device.
I can spin up a large Windows Workspace VM or Cloud 9 Linux environment on AWS to conserve data coming to my computer if needed.
With the pandemic/post-pandemic, lots of folks can now afford to work remotely for extended periods.
AirBnB's strength has always been in cities, but the cities are cracking down hard on STRs. E.g. NYC passed a law making rentals for < 30 days in the city illegal.
I do wonder there is a regulatory risk that cities will push out the min time to, say, 60 days if they feel that they haven't solved their "AirBnB problem" with a 30 day min stay.
AirBnB is killing normal rental markets in quite a few cities here in slovenia, and the locals hate it, so there are huge pushes towards regulation and outright bans by basically everyone except people who actually profit on airbnb.
Basically noone wants daily-changing "neighbors", half of them partying half the nights in their (multi-apartment) buildings, while finding an apartment for rent is getting harder and harder (and much more expensive).
If airbnb was the thing it was marketed as in the beginning (you go on a vacation, rent the apartment out for that week or two), then sure... but people buy apartments (at currently overinflated prices) just to rent it out on airbnb full time.
Perhaps I'm just getting old, but 2016 was when New York State passed the law banning advertising whole homes on AirBnB for < 30 days, and I consider that relatively recent.
That’s a good point. I was thinking of NYC, which has had specific laws about short terms rentals (preventing ‘flophouses’ etc.) for as long as I can remember.
That's one of the reasons why I picked AirBnB. Let me stay in a foreign city for work for a few weeks for a very low cost. Wouldn't have been able to do that without them.
Lots of new regulations in major cities bans sub 30 day rentals so Airbnb no these sorts of airbnb use are longer an option unless the user is trying to break the rules.
I love Airbnb and have booked dozens of stays through them.
I listened in on the earnings call yesterday and heard lots of good things. But as a prospective investor my main concern is how they plan to deal with increasing circumvention of the platform.
There's professional short-term property management services in every market now, and they don't want to give Airbnb a cut.
I am literally typing this comment from a cabin that I discovered on Airbnb but booked direct to save money. The listing contained text inviting you to visit their website to book direct and avoid fees.
I've also re-booked properties I've stayed at in the past by contacting hosts directly, and received offers from hosts via Airbnb message to book outside of Airbnb for a discount.
So a major problem for Airbnb is that they don't really own the relationship between hosts and guests.
Really? That's interesting, I often use Airbnb instead of these other platforms or direct relationships because having them as a guarantor is usually worth the premium that they demand, especially in foreign countries. Maybe this is a larger issue as they move towards longer stays but at least for short to midterm (e.g. under 3 months) I'm usually happy to use Airbnb and they're reasonable for booking more than a month at a time
I found lodging on Google Maps with a 5 star rating. The host told you to message him on WhatsApp to book. Turns out he has a couple rooms listed on Airbnb and a couple only available directly.
On checkin day, I carried my cumbersome luggage for like a mile from the ferry terminal to his building, and no one was there to greet me. He had misunderstood the days I requested, and was now full for the night I requested. I ended up sitting in that hallway for hours trying to find another place to stay with immediate checkin. I ended up walking across town at midnight to pay twice as much money to stay at a shitty hotel above the train tracks in the shittiest part of town. It was perhaps literally the last room available in the whole city.
Airbnb's fees are expensive (and poorly presented in the UI), but there's certainly value in having a formal booking system and an external complaints/support process.
I host on Airbnb, and won’t take direct bookings, for pretty much the same reason you describe - they verify ID and all that, so I don’t have to, and if something goes badly wrong, my insurance would provide cover - whereas with a direct booking, they’d have far more surface area to say why this was a foreseeable risk that I failed to adequately treat.
Airbnb has had this problem since their founding, and they've obviously dealt with it fine. I'm not thrilled with paying Airbnb's fees as a traveler, but I know I'm getting value for them, and that if I go outside the platform I have no recourse and there is a good chance I'll get scammed.
The short-term rental market is much more mature now than it was at Airbnb's founding. There are reputable management companies all over now with their own platforms, payment gateways, reviews etc.
There were tons of reputable management companies all over a decade ago as well. VRBO was founded in the late 90s.
Literally all of the lodging management sites that take a cut of transaction have this potential issue, and they've all figured out how to deal with it. It's a solved problem.
I'm curious how Airbnb specifically is solving it. I can think of four bookings off the top of my head--expensive ones--where they've missed out on my money because the hosts solicited offers to circumvent the platform. It's worked out fine for me each time.
"It's a solved problem" does not mean that it never happens. It means it's easily a manageable cost of doing business. Again, ALL rental listing platforms have this issue and they're doing fine.
First, AirBnB will kick hosts off the platform if they find out.
Second, as another commenter mentioned, many customers appreciate the support and guarantees paying through AirBnB gives them. All it takes is one shitty experience or getting scammed for folks to think twice about going off the platform.
If I like an Airbnb property listed by a business, I often look them up to see if they offer a better deal on their website. Airbnb is a fantastic distribution for such listings. I recently discovered a startup (Limehome) through Airbnb - it offers consistent home-like stays in multiple cities in Europe. If I were traveling for a short vacation or for business, I would probably prefer something like this over an independent host.
If Airbnb intends to have zero control over the end user experience, I think they will eventually lose out to a player which offers consistent hotel-like convenience with home-like comfort/experience.
It's crazy how hidden fees quickly blow up a $99 property to $328... $159 cleaning fee? $60 mysterious service charge? I just go with Hotels...much more consistent experience.
Agreed. I stopped using the service when I realized the prices listed don't reflect what you're actually paying. A price may look great until you read the fine print and see that you'll be paying $100 more. If they had transparent pricing I doubt as many people would use the platform. There is also a more reliable source of reviews for most hotels. You could stay at a descent rated host on AirBnb and then go look at the reviews and see things like... "Dirty bathrooms and the bed was soiled. 5 out of 5 for the authentic homely experience."
It's also good to figure out how to negotiate with locals. I was recently in Macedonia. I was looking at one listing for an apartment that was around 1000 euros/month for 3 months on Airbnb. My friend, a local, was able to find & contact the owner directly. The owner's price for my friend was 300 euros/month.
A place I stayed just a week ago in Fiji is listed for $1500 a day while we got same place randomly for $400… That said Fiji is still recovering from Covid - in places like Hawaii you’d struggle to get anything!
This feels like they are so full of themselves. They should have simply summarized it as, ‘Revenue greatly dropped in 2020, and the subsequent increase is inversely correlated to the level of society’s fear of covid.’
Instead, they have to throw in a bunch of self-aggrandizing startup bullshit.
As a user, Airbnb is hostile. The price you see is never the price you pay. It's impossible to tell which listings are actually the cheaper or more expensive than others. The only reason to use them is selection, they have properties that VRBO & others don't. So focusing on improvements for their hosts is smart, but feels like it will still bite them in the long run. I already avoid Airbnb when possible.
Just did a quick test. The US version has the nightly price as the first number with the total under it, and the AU site has the total price listed instead.
Interestingly, the AU price was a couple dollars more than the US price. Threw together a quick side-by-side: https://imgur.com/a/DJwG5z9
You linked a screenshot after you already selected a property. If you are back on the property search page, it shows a nightly price and a total price on hover, but when you click the total price goes up by the cleaning fee and the service fee. And those seem to be completely random so it's not like you can just add $100 in your head to every price. Anywhere they show a price, it should be the total price.
Same goes for hotels + resort fees, though. It seems like the only place I can really see the actual price is on airline websites?
EDIT: I just tried to repro and now the total is always matching. I swear I was just raging about this 4 days ago when I booked a trip... gah.
Also US and I see the nightly and total. That’s good enough for me. Lets me understand what an additional day will cost. Basically they give you the full y=m*x+b instead of just y.
It’s much more egregious with ABNB. A hotel might charge you some small local taxes and fees, but with ABNB you get those plus a whopper of a “cleaning fee”, which can be hundreds of dollars, even for short stays.
The "cleaning fees" on Airbnb are super reminiscent of the the "shipping fees" on early 2000s e-bay. The only difference is that it was a somewhat fresh concept with e-bay. The people who built Airbnb should know better.
Good point! I just stayed at a hotel in hollywood and was charged $20/day "destination charge" and I've had similar resort charges at hotels in hawaii. Hotels are no better than airbnb with these extra fees.
Wholeheartedly agree, except that I travel almost exclusively with Airbnb because hotels suck and VRBO has less listings and at the end of the day airbnb is amazing for traveling. If you work at Airbnb, please fix these dark patterns. From a loyal user.
Also sometimes even which listings are still active. I've had a few times where I've booked and the host responded not even knowing their listing had been up.
The second sentence doesn't support the first. Airbnb is just doing the minimum to keep up with everything else. Having additional charges is very common inside and outside of booking places to stay. The actual price usually falls somewhere between 2% and 30% extra, so it's not like there's no relationship between quoted prices and the final prices. The exception on AirBnb is cleaning fees. For that, they're helping out their hosts, who would otherwise feel pressured to charge $0 for a cleaning fee, which just isn't fair. Another exception is airline fees, which is solved by showing the total price. Often a cheap flight will have a laughably small airfare, sometimes less than $10. There must be some regulation that has the airlines show the price including taxes. This doesn't apply to many other things though, including cell phone bills.
I wonder how much of that profit is 'stolen' from hosts and guests through poor customer service?
There are multiple occasions that I've booked an Airbnb only to find the house doesn't exist and the host's phone number is no longer connected, yet somehow Airbnb won't issue a refund without lots of hassle.
Possibly 5% of my bookings on Airbnb have turned out to be fraudulent in some way which disadvantages me financially and leaves Airbnb with more money in their pockets. If I'm not unique, that's a big contributor to the company bottom line!
Going to be interesting to keep an eye on that urban vs non-urban mix.
Major urban centres around the world (eg. Barcelona, Berlin, Vancouver) are facing severe housing affordability challenges, and as part of the solution have enacted regulation against sub 30 day vacation rentals in apartments intended for long term rental to people who live and work in the cities.
You'd think that these regulations will keep a lid on Airbnb growth and force the company to place more emphasis on non-urban and tourism oriented towns that have less severe housing pressures.
Since 2017 I have been living in Airbnbs, more than 80 at this point always for 1+ month long stays, and sometimes renting beyond in private arrangements with owner.
Mostly good experiences. I was also part of the last group of stays before Japan more or less outlawed it, feels bad.
Some bad parts include scorpion infestations in jungles in colombia, bedbugs in russia, roaches in brazil, rocket attacks in israel and mold in South korea. But mostly the worst thing is knowing im paying 20-50% more than a local in some countries.
Airbnb waited 7 fucking days. They claimed they wanted host to correct the situation. I told Airbnb I didn't want to wait for that as I don't trust the host anymore.
Fortunate for me that the host didn't reply to Airbnb.
The whole thing is just anti-consumer. Host changing details should grant me the right to cancel with full refund immediately.
I was very disappointed at the ethical standard at Airbnb.
I hope Airbnb fails. I can't support them anymore.
Probably means availability of Wi-Fi / Internet access, something that should be a given at any room rental. But as I've found out while searching, sometimes it isn't. That's why I always add "Wi-fi" in the filters.
I agree with OP though. If you change the available amenities after the booking has been made, you've deceived the customer and they should be eligible for an immediate refund.
What's striking and sad is how much of their business is now people living in an Airbnb staying longer than a month. Signals something wrong with housing and the economy.
Getting a short term lease is incredibly difficult and a very manual process involving credit checks, filling in random forms and faxing them, landlords contacting my employer and so forth.
With AirBnb, I just enter my credit card number and book it.
To be clear, I'm not saying AirBnb is a problem here. I'm saying there is something wrong with our housing system where people are using AirBnb as a place to live on an increasing basis.
> In 2021, around 20% of our nights booked were for stays of a month or longer, and nearly 50% for a week or longer
This one is surprising, but not totally unexpected I guess. Airbnb is slowly replacing short term leases and sublets, and I imagine this will be a huge growth driver for them as remote work and the nomad lifestyle becomes more common.
yes, but also more money changes hands in longer bookings, so maybe num bookings is the unintuitive metric. Def worth pointing out that both are biased in one way or the other though.
Can anyone say genuinely that the product got better? Seems like they just cut a lot of useless shit but didn’t fix any of the core fraud and poor customer service problems
What was the fraud? I'd consider myself a super-user and the main issues I encounter are lack of reasonably priced listings, a shift to hotel-like professional listings which are boring and defeat the purpose of using airbnb, and exorbitant cleaning fees and the like.
The fees are included in the nightly/total price if you include dates for the search. It's challenging to show the cleaning fees without the length of stay or would have to show the nightly price + fees all the time and it would get kind of confusing. I think there is now the total price if you click that it shows you the break down.
Context: I used to work at Airbnb, and some point designed one version those listing cards as well. There was never a goal to have some dark pattern choice not to include the fees or somehow try to mislead users. There is just limited space for the price. Also each city, country and might have different fee structures and pricing regulation so we actually had to design the card as something supports those different cases. Like in Australia you always have to show total price where as in US it's common for hotels to show nightly price without taxes or resort fees. In some cities or countries there is now a tourist fee.
Unlike in hotels where the cleaning fee is included in the price, on Airbnb, the host sets it. Also each rental is unique like one might be 10 bedroom house with pool and jacuzzi and some might be one bedroom rooms so the cleaning needs vary. Also in some places cleaning is very cheap and some places it's very expensive to get someone to clean your house.
I’d say if the fee isn’t disclosed before you confirm the transaction, it’s fraud. If they just show you a teaser rate then add the fee when they show the total, it’s slimy but par for the course.
There's tons of fraud on AirBNB (and increasingly VRBO). We've rentals on both service in the past year try to redirect us to 2nd locations or get us to pay 'damage deposits' on shady third party websites. AirBNB's customer support immediately said 'definitely sounds like a scam' when we reported it, then held our $6k for a month. My wife had to threaten to sue to get them to release it. At no point during that month did AirBNB take down the fraudulent listing (even while the reviews piled up saying that they were redirected to a run down loft instead of the nice house they had rented). VRBO refunded our money in a couple of days when we reported a host trying to get us to pay on a third party site.
We still prefer Vrbo for hosting our rentals. Airbnb will still give people full refunds after the cancellation deadline and then host is out that money. Vrbo allows us to set our cancellation policy and will not override it.
Does anyone have a plausible model of how Airbnb can ever make over 5x more revenue than it’s making today? Is the $100B market cap building in an assumption that it’s going to invent new business lines and push them through its distribution channel, or what?
Top line needs to keep growing 30%/yr for next 5 years, then reach a stable state of 30%/yr earnings+growth yield...
Then if that optimistic scenario comes true, congratulations, you can expect a modest 10%/yr yield investing at $100B today. I believe that’s roughly the math.