As a Turkish person, we are reminded of this pretty much every day. However, it’s also important to avoid the cult of personality: Ataturk’s reforms did not come out of nothing. Turkey at that point had been a cosmopolitan society of many communities for almost a thousand years, many of which were non-Muslim and some of which were western. That kind of permanent interface was arguably one of the things that gave Turkey the ability to lunge for a western, secular democracy, and more importantly, manage to keep it (nascent as it is) for a hundred years, up until now.
Erdogan has been in power for twenty years by now — much as he would have loved to dismantle it, this is as far as it has gotten. Imperfect as it is, if it manages to hand power off of Erdogan in 2023 peacefully, Turkish democracy will have passed the acid test. If that doesn’t work, nobody knows.
There are elections coming in 2023 (as scheduled) and possibly earlier if the opposition manages to force it due to current low confidence in the government. All prior ‘this is critical’ moments were either local elections (cannot affect the national gov’t) or sort of wishful thinking on the opposition’s part. This one is different, because Erdogan is not only not polling first in a very long time, he is polling fourth and the last.
It also is significant because the collapse of TRY to half its prior value was both swift and for the first time ever, visibly caused by bad leadership.
For fun I walked around the lise that was the polling center during an election 4-5 years ago. There were poll workers caught stealing votes. There was a vehicle without a license plate waiting outside the front door of the school to steal the ballot box if necessary.
There is also a massive influx of Syrian refugees who may be allowed to vote... and these refugees are said to almost entirely vote according to the Islamic perspective.
I don't see Erdoğan losing if the election were to be held today. But a lot can change in a couple of years, and as you say the economic situation may aid the opposition.
The attempted coup was certainly a critical moment as well. It was passed when it became evident many of the protesters fighting back against the coup were political opponents of Erdogan. Hopefully that's settled one particular question - no more coups, even if it's against your political opponents.
The coming election is I think another legitimately critical tests. It's not great that Turkey faces multiple critical tests, in a relatively short period of time in the grand scheme of things, but the important thing is it passes them.
The coup failed on two counts. First it didn’t get enough support within the military to be viable. Second even Erdogan’s political opponents fought against it.
Given history there’s always been a fear of the possibility of a coup at some point. Hopefully that episode has resoundingly shown coups in Turkey are not an option anymore. So yes it failed spectacularly and I think that’s the important point.
More or less, since Turkish people had their share of unsuccessful and successful coup attempts in the past, it is not unimaginable. I would understand why it would look staged to outside observers. However, if a complex and dynamic process with many moving parts fail, it fails spectacularly.
Interesting to call "adolescent" such an old civilization. I wonder how frequently a given plot of land and people goes through a full human-like life. How often are regions reinventing themselves, over history?
I would consider the Turkish Republic a newborn at 1923, not a continuation of the Ottoman Empire from 1299, mostly because it was a switch in cultural codes and a reset in wealth. OE bequeathed very little wealth to TR, so this is the first time Turkey is coming to any significant wealth and influence in the world. The last time the government of Asia Minor had any real wealth and influence was early 19th century, and since that timespan is longer than a human life, the country ‘forgot’ to conduct itself gracefully.
Now, Turkey is trying to learn on the fly how not to be a bull in a china shop.
Like every year is the "Year of the Linux Desktop", it's the same for Turkey "This is the critical moment for Turkish democracy" ~ a fellow Turk in his late 30s.
Do you think that Imamoglu (Mayor of Istanbul) will run for presidency and win?
Is there a reason to worry about a possible coup or large scale voting fraud if Erdogan is likely to lose?
The current constitution of Turkey gives a lot of power to the President. Is the opposition ready to draft a new constitution with more checks and balances?
Imamoglu appears to be making much more headway into the conservative circles than any other secular leader, so it’s not obvious to me that he would lose if he tried. However, he is also a new name in Turkish politics, and only Istanbulites regularly hear of his name. While Istanbul is the heart of Turkey it’s not so dominant in a way that winning Istanbul practically guarantees the race — it doesn’t.
In short, I’m hopeful about him, and he’s already doing a good job in the second most powerful post in TR in terms of visibility. I’m not entirely sure his time for presidency has come yet, but if he thinks it has, he would have a fair shot at it.
> Is there a reason to worry about a possible coup or large scale voting fraud if Erdogan is likely to lose?
Turkish elections are one of the most closely watched in the world by international observers and they have a world-leading participation rate at 80+%, which is unheard of in most western democracies. It likely very hard to pull off large scale election fraud.
> The current constitution of Turkey gives a lot of power to the President. Is the opposition ready to draft a new constitution with more checks and balances?
Yes, this is the priority #1 for any incoming president that would not be Erdogan. He wanted the system to be essentially an elected emperorship by way of the Holy Roman Empire and he got unexpectedly close. That needs to be patched up.
There seems to be two popular candidates at the moment, Yavas(Mayor of Ankara) and Imamoglu. Imamoglu looks to be more ambitious, thus it is likely he will run for presidency. All the current polls suggest either of them could win against Erdogan if the opposition can form an united front. It is easier than it would be in a parliamentary system, since if no candidate secures over fifty percent of the votes in the first round, the top two candidates go for the second round of elections.
And yes, the opposition parties declared the next government would be a transitional one and curb the powers of the president
Erdogan has formed some paramilitary organizations in the recent years and these are worrying. However, the opposition literally watches over every single vote with multiple volunteers, lawyers and every single vote table gets recorded online in real time. It would be certainly hard to pull of a blatant fraud. Thats how opposition managed to win major cities few years back, against all corrupt judiciary branch.
I don’t like Erdogan as much as the next guy, but the claims of a ‘corrupt’ judiciary and ‘paramilitary’ organisations are big accusations that need extraordinary evidence.
Absolutely. Actually the reason I posted that comment in the first place was to solicit reactions from Turks (I am not Turk, but have spent years in Turkey.) The cult of personality factor is high, and somewhat concerning. But (maybe) understandable given what it's counterbalancing, and the background of the people it's intended to influence.
Erdogan has been in power for twenty years by now — much as he would have loved to dismantle it, this is as far as it has gotten. Imperfect as it is, if it manages to hand power off of Erdogan in 2023 peacefully, Turkish democracy will have passed the acid test. If that doesn’t work, nobody knows.