There are elections coming in 2023 (as scheduled) and possibly earlier if the opposition manages to force it due to current low confidence in the government. All prior ‘this is critical’ moments were either local elections (cannot affect the national gov’t) or sort of wishful thinking on the opposition’s part. This one is different, because Erdogan is not only not polling first in a very long time, he is polling fourth and the last.

It also is significant because the collapse of TRY to half its prior value was both swift and for the first time ever, visibly caused by bad leadership.

For fun I walked around the lise that was the polling center during an election 4-5 years ago. There were poll workers caught stealing votes. There was a vehicle without a license plate waiting outside the front door of the school to steal the ballot box if necessary.

There is also a massive influx of Syrian refugees who may be allowed to vote... and these refugees are said to almost entirely vote according to the Islamic perspective.

I don't see Erdoğan losing if the election were to be held today. But a lot can change in a couple of years, and as you say the economic situation may aid the opposition.

The attempted coup was certainly a critical moment as well. It was passed when it became evident many of the protesters fighting back against the coup were political opponents of Erdogan. Hopefully that's settled one particular question - no more coups, even if it's against your political opponents.

The coming election is I think another legitimately critical tests. It's not great that Turkey faces multiple critical tests, in a relatively short period of time in the grand scheme of things, but the important thing is it passes them.

>The attempted coup was certainly a critical moment as well.

Was that really accepted by the Turkish people as a legitimate coup attempt? From an outside perspective it appeared almost comically staged.

The coup failed on two counts. First it didn’t get enough support within the military to be viable. Second even Erdogan’s political opponents fought against it.

Given history there’s always been a fear of the possibility of a coup at some point. Hopefully that episode has resoundingly shown coups in Turkey are not an option anymore. So yes it failed spectacularly and I think that’s the important point.

More or less, since Turkish people had their share of unsuccessful and successful coup attempts in the past, it is not unimaginable. I would understand why it would look staged to outside observers. However, if a complex and dynamic process with many moving parts fail, it fails spectacularly.

Turkey’s adolescence is full of trials indeed. Hopefully one day we’ll be able to look back at this and call it life experience.

Interesting to call "adolescent" such an old civilization. I wonder how frequently a given plot of land and people goes through a full human-like life. How often are regions reinventing themselves, over history?

I would consider the Turkish Republic a newborn at 1923, not a continuation of the Ottoman Empire from 1299, mostly because it was a switch in cultural codes and a reset in wealth. OE bequeathed very little wealth to TR, so this is the first time Turkey is coming to any significant wealth and influence in the world. The last time the government of Asia Minor had any real wealth and influence was early 19th century, and since that timespan is longer than a human life, the country ‘forgot’ to conduct itself gracefully.

Now, Turkey is trying to learn on the fly how not to be a bull in a china shop.

Like every year is the "Year of the Linux Desktop", it's the same for Turkey "This is the critical moment for Turkish democracy" ~ a fellow Turk in his late 30s.