Do you think that Imamoglu (Mayor of Istanbul) will run for presidency and win?
Is there a reason to worry about a possible coup or large scale voting fraud if Erdogan is likely to lose?
The current constitution of Turkey gives a lot of power to the President. Is the opposition ready to draft a new constitution with more checks and balances?
Imamoglu appears to be making much more headway into the conservative circles than any other secular leader, so it’s not obvious to me that he would lose if he tried. However, he is also a new name in Turkish politics, and only Istanbulites regularly hear of his name. While Istanbul is the heart of Turkey it’s not so dominant in a way that winning Istanbul practically guarantees the race — it doesn’t.
In short, I’m hopeful about him, and he’s already doing a good job in the second most powerful post in TR in terms of visibility. I’m not entirely sure his time for presidency has come yet, but if he thinks it has, he would have a fair shot at it.
> Is there a reason to worry about a possible coup or large scale voting fraud if Erdogan is likely to lose?
Turkish elections are one of the most closely watched in the world by international observers and they have a world-leading participation rate at 80+%, which is unheard of in most western democracies. It likely very hard to pull off large scale election fraud.
> The current constitution of Turkey gives a lot of power to the President. Is the opposition ready to draft a new constitution with more checks and balances?
Yes, this is the priority #1 for any incoming president that would not be Erdogan. He wanted the system to be essentially an elected emperorship by way of the Holy Roman Empire and he got unexpectedly close. That needs to be patched up.
There seems to be two popular candidates at the moment, Yavas(Mayor of Ankara) and Imamoglu. Imamoglu looks to be more ambitious, thus it is likely he will run for presidency. All the current polls suggest either of them could win against Erdogan if the opposition can form an united front. It is easier than it would be in a parliamentary system, since if no candidate secures over fifty percent of the votes in the first round, the top two candidates go for the second round of elections.
And yes, the opposition parties declared the next government would be a transitional one and curb the powers of the president
Erdogan has formed some paramilitary organizations in the recent years and these are worrying. However, the opposition literally watches over every single vote with multiple volunteers, lawyers and every single vote table gets recorded online in real time. It would be certainly hard to pull of a blatant fraud. Thats how opposition managed to win major cities few years back, against all corrupt judiciary branch.
I don’t like Erdogan as much as the next guy, but the claims of a ‘corrupt’ judiciary and ‘paramilitary’ organisations are big accusations that need extraordinary evidence.
Do you think that Imamoglu (Mayor of Istanbul) will run for presidency and win?
Is there a reason to worry about a possible coup or large scale voting fraud if Erdogan is likely to lose?
The current constitution of Turkey gives a lot of power to the President. Is the opposition ready to draft a new constitution with more checks and balances?