In other words it's both the best time to take a vacation to Japan and the worst time. Pros: a cheap country is even cheaper. Cons: hordes upon hordes upon hordes of tourists. I don't envy the Japanese right now.
I don’t care about crowds. I need to visit Japan before I die. Maybe now is the time. I’m a huge train/transit nerd, and every year I don’t, I lose credibility.
Unrelated to Japan, but what's the reputation of train simming video games among train nerds? Are train sims deemed realistic?
Also the trains would be crowded right now. Maybe an interesting experience, since it's a once in a lifetime chance to see how their scheduling handles massive, unexpected crowds.
Didn't downvote. But reducing an entire country, particularly within the context of their currency crashing, to a motive like credibility among a niche group might come across to some as limited.
Those of us who love and work here are groaning at the ideas of flocks of tourists xD. They are great for the economy, but we get grouped in with them (and the outliers with bad behaviour), so once again, when tourist season is over, we have to deal with the frustration everyone has felt.
It's not as bad as all that though, most of us know not to go out during peak tourist season though.
Was there last week, third time visiting. Still had an incredible time, but hotels were pricy and almost everything was booked out, hotels and popular restaurants + attractions, about a month ahead of time. If you go I'd recommend not doing it spontaneously!
The really good restaurants, even small joints, are full all the time, even without tourists. So, if you want a really excellent meal, be prepared to wait, or find a place where you can make reservations. :-)
Like the OP I was also in Japan this momth for the third time (first time in 2017), visited 4 major cities and few more towns.
Never ever had I book a restaurant to eat good good. Yes, there were places that were packed but there was even more places that weren't and still had excellent food.
It's just being spoiled and going after google maps reviews/ratings at this point and not really enjoying the place.
its not only that the yen is dropping in value like a rock, but the double-punch of recently doubling (in 2 steps) of the sales tax from 5% to 10% is really making hard on things (e.g iphone is ridiculously expense now, just as one example [1])... it doesn't seem like anyone has a solid plan to fix these issues....
The value of a country's currency = How much stuff it produces / How much money it prints.
Both, Japan and the US are increasing their monetary base by what, 10% per year?
Don't know about the productivity of Japan, but the US still seems on top of its game. Software and datacenters are the most important resource of the future. And so far the US is leading the way. Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia ... all in the US. The US is also the world's leading country when it comes to Bitcoin mining.
The thing is, stuff might not be priced correctly. The US is a superpower in many areas but in a lot of cases the productivity is beancounters magic. Maybe US has the superior beancounters and not necessarily the superior production.
For example, an appendicitis creates an economic activity of at least $7000 dollars in US and much much less elsewhere even if the work done on the human body is the same.
Similar situation for the software, for some reason writing a for loop in SV is at least 3 times more valuable than writing it in London.
So I would argue that the forumula of country's currency = How much stuff it produces / How much money it prints doesn't necessarily be working the same everywhere.
Why? IMHO it's for 2 reasons: barriers on people moving and the US being de facto reserve currency. There are too many artificial barriers on the free market around the globe, the capital flows much more freely than the labor around the globe and this creates artificial valuations of properties and economic activities.
> for some reason writing a for loop in SV is at least 3 times more valuable than writing it in London
I mean, yes, writing the same line of code at Google, Uber or OpenAI is more valuable than doing so at a British neobank.
You're correct in productivity being a nefarious beast to measure. But the examples given--extending the life of a high-GDP-per-capita person or doing identical work in dramatically different contexts--aren't making your point.
> multiplier is roughly the same even if the dev in London is working at the exact same company as the one in SV
Sure. Because they’re doing different work, in proximity to different people and different resources, within different economic contexts. A developer in Silicon Valley is fundamentally more productive than one in London, in part solely by virtue of being in Silicon Valley. (Not true at the individual level, of course. But statistically, of course.)
Yes, the setting is different but its different because people can't just go around and work wherever they find employment because there's artificial barrier called nationality and visa.
> The value of a country's currency = How much stuff it produces / How much money it prints.
The value of a currency is how much people are willing to pay to have the other currency. For example, if Japan is importing many goods and services, they need to pay them in USD and so they have to buy USD on the market.
> Both, Japan and the US are increasing their monetary base by what, 10% per year?
The monetary base is not strictly connected to the money in the economy. Most of the money is created by commercial banks when they hand out loans. So the entire money in the economy can shrink (people paying back more loans than they), while at the same time the central bank increases currency.
if Japan is importing many goods and services,
they need to pay them in USD
Yes, and for this purpose, the Dollar is among the "stuff" the US produces: A currency accepted in many places.
Most of the money is created by commercial banks
Say there is a new bank which has no central bank money, no deposits, nothing. First customer walks in and gets a credit of $100. Now the customer wants to pay these $100 to someone who uses a different bank. What happens?
>if Japan is importing many goods and services, they need to pay them in USD and so they have to buy USD on the market.
Why does Japan need to pay them in USD?Because, as ArtTimeInvestor wrote,
> but the US still seems on top of its game.
Whatever the US sells, whether it be purely business/technology or even commingled with military resources, a lot of people in the world are interested in buying it.
Different how? When the US doubles the supply of the Dollar, its value halves. It takes a while and the effect spreads in chaotic waves. But there is no escape from this effect. No matter how widely used the currency is.
It is the exorbitant privilege. It is a bit hard to find good discussions of the mechanism because it gets political very quickly. But in essence if the US prints the whole world absorbs it, if Japan prints it stays in Japan.
When a central bank expands the money supply (by changing their interest rate or doing QE) it doesn't spread linearly in the economy. There is a much more complex pattern. And the dynamics of the dominant currency which has all other curencies subordinate to it are completely different from that of a mostly local currency.
But as I wrote. This is a controversial subject. And there are economists out there who will tell you that the special status of the US dollar makes no difference at all and this de Gaulle guy just was upset about losing some colonies.
You somehow think that the demand/supply curve is linear.
Why? It would be quite odd. Certainly Japan has generated far more currency and debt over the last 35 years while inflation stayed low (and the relative value of Yen stayed high). I don't see any explanation for that here any more than the yearly gyrations of other currencies crypto or fiat.
The term you're looking for here is 'exporting inflation' - a quick web search will give about a million hits. This takes many forms, but here are a couple of the most impactful ways we do it:
#1 - Being the largest consumer economy. The economy of many countries depends on exporting stuff to the US. Now imagine the US prints a lot of money so its currency becomes weaker, relative to yours. This is a real problem because it means Americans aren't able to afford as much of your country's stuff. And if there are other countries whose currency has not strengthened as much (relative to the dollar), then their stuff becomes even more desirable, relative to yours. But there's actually a simple and happy solution - print money. Devaluing your own currency not only fixes this problem by 'importing' US inflation, but it also gives you lots of money to spend as well. The only problem is ever-mounting debt, but hey - if modern economics is about anything, it's about kicking the can to the next generation!
#2 - Being the global reserve currency. Until extremely recently, if China and Russia were going to go trade some goods between each other, they'd have settled the balance in USD! And nearly all oil was sold in USD. As the USD weakens, this obligates these countries to start increasing their reserves of it to continue ensuring the same level of real liquidity. But this also has the side effect of taking more USD out of general circulation which drives the price of the USD up, which also simultaneously makes your own reserves worth even more!
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It's also for these sort of reasons that, for instance, China is accused of being a currency manipulator for weakening their currency. We kind of intuit "strong = good" but in international economics, that's definitely not the case. It depends on the exact composition of your economy, and your role in global trade. China thrives because of a weak currency. But for Japan this is not the case. They are, amongst other things, the world's largest single importer of both natural gas and food. So their currency weakening is likely to be very damaging for a country that's already been suffering economically for decades, and is only getting worse due to an increasing demographic collapse.
Depends on if it offsets their exports, which has increased last few years due to weak yen despite switching to "premium" energy pricing. Might also make a lot of their ASEAN/foreign infra tenders more competitive. I think there's gains for JP with weak yen, but can't happen faster than businesses can adjust.
> US navy has failed miserably against the Houtnis
With the benefit of hindsight it was a damned clear success. At the time it looked limited. But strikes have subsided [1]. And the Houthis’ situational awareness is so poor they’re potting the Russians [2].
As per your link, they've struck 3 ships in the past week and targeted but missed another, and the US is now trying to achieve a diplomatic solution with them.
The article says they struck one, the one carrying Russian oil, and targeted (but did not strike) two others. No strikes the U.S. would care about.
It looks like the U.S. is pursuing a counterbattery strategy in Yemen. Keep assets remote. Watch for enemy fire. Use their revealing their locations by firing to counterstrike. It's a safe, effective but slow strategy.
I was premature to call it a success--the Red Sea hasn't re-opened. But the risk to global trade has been sidelined to the extent that the entire debacle is a negigible sideshow.
From the Wiki page: "In April, Tim Lenderking, the United States special envoy for Yemen, stated that he hoped to achieve a diplomatic solution with the Yemeni Houthis in regard to their attacks, and that the US would consider removing the Houthis from its designated terrorist list if they ceased their attacks."
You can check the status of the blockade here. [1] Scroll down to the bottom, and they have a regularly updated graph of traffic through the Suez. US airstrikes started January 12th.
Blockade means blockade. This is a traffic rerouting. It's a bit nutty to say the U.S. vs Houthis is in any way a policy failure for the U.S. The threat was reduced and then it ceased to be pressing.
Contrast that with the oil markets before the U.S. intervened.
> the United States special envoy for Yemen, stated that he hoped to achieve a diplomatic solution with the Yemeni Houthis
Sure, this was never contested. Again, they're an irrelevant fighting group. What's desired is for the missiles to stop so they can go back to threatening the Saudis and we can reposition naval assets from playground patrol duty.
On the linked graph, be sure to expand the date out to "all" or at least the past year. It defaults to a 3-month window, which obviously misses the impact, since the blockade began more than 3 months ago. Not only has the threat not been reduced whatsoever, but there are substantially fewer ships traversing the Suez today than when the US began its air strikes! The nice thing about this military intervention, relative to most, is that the results are objectively and quantifiably measurably.
> Not only has the threat not been reduced whatsoever, but there are substantially fewer ships traversing the Suez today than when the US began its air strikes
I am seeing statistically fewer strikes on friendly ships after the intervention versus before. And less oil-price volatility. The goal wasn’t to bail out the Suez, it was to calm markets—ships circumventing the Red Sea does that as cleanly for American purposes as the Houthis packing up.
Hahahah, you're something else buddy. No, obviously the goal of "Operation Prosperity Guardian" was to "end the blockade and counter threats by Houthi forces against international maritime commerce in the region." [1] Ships could happily sail around the entire African continent without a multi billion dollar military operation and invasion. "The region", the Red Sea, is an area you have to purposefully seek out and sail into during this voyage.
Obviously there's been less strikes, because the blockade has been completely successful, meaning Israel linked ships aren't even trying. What was probably tens of billions dollars wasted trying to stop it has been a complete failure and waste of money, like usual.
The Houthis’ effects on global shipping markets, specifically prices, has ended. Their effect on oil prices has ended. Their technical capability to target ships has degraded to the point that they’re potting Iran’s allies all while their firing rate is markedly down. They were a front-page nuisance, now they’re another regional mischief.
Some won’t be happy with anything short of America removing the Houthis from power entirely, but fortunately there are adults in the room who know when to call a win.
Lol, no it hasn't. Shipping rates are about twice what they were before the blockade started. [1] The actual cost for Israel linked ships is of course far higher - that table just gives you an average global shipping price index, which the Israeli linked ships alone have sent skyrocketing. Even oil is indeed up, though it was never a motive to begin with.
You are literally just making up random things to try to convince yourself of what you want to believe, to the point I can't even tell if you're being serious.
Years back I remember Trump saying something like "Amount of money and debt doesn't matter so long as folks still buy oil is US dollars". And I can't really disagree with him on that. The issue is when that golden goose flys then it will be all hell as the system balances back out.
The US produces 15 Billion bushels of corn/maize a year. Bushel = 56 pounds. About 8 bushels provide the calorie requirement for an adult for a year. The US has about 350 Million people.
The US produces roughly 4 Billion bushels of soybeans a year. Bushel = 60 pound. About 6 bushels of soy (yielding 60ish pounds total protein) meet the protein requirements for an adult for a year. Provides additional total calories to boot.
Just corn and beans. The US will do just fine…as will the rest of the Americas, since Brazil is outproducing the US in soybeans and producing 5 Billion bushels of corn a year.
You personally can value the bakery next door higher than Microsoft, because "Hey, I can eat bread but I can't eat software". But the market will not agree with you.
This also makes a Chinese devaluation much more likelier (the Chinese peg their currency towards the USD). Would for sure be interpreted negatively in the west.
Living in Japan for the last 25 years or so, I with the BOJ would have a bit of a lower trigger. The weak yen is not very fun to live with at the moment...
