It is already the case today (at least in the UK). If you accept having a "black box", then you have a discount. I already pay the premium to not have that installed.
PS: I understand we're talking about the future here, just wanted to clarify that paying a premium for less telemetry is already here and not a hypothetical case.
I actually wanted to go with an insurer that installs a black box. My dealer, however, doesn't do those (and their standard package is pretty good, so with a new car it was stupid to go with someone else).
My insurance company has a phone app that collects the same info - speed, deaccelation (gyroscopes), etc. the app is optional but qualifies you for a discount after 3 months of app history, if your driving pattern meets their standards. They told me they do not impose rate increases based on the app’s reporting, only discounts. I did not install it
but the point is: You don’t need a car device anymore.
My insurance company's app sometimes detects commuter train rides as car trips. As far as I can tell, there's no way to tell it "No, I'm not actually driving now".
PS: I understand we're talking about the future here, just wanted to clarify that paying a premium for less telemetry is already here and not a hypothetical case.