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With the one box strategy, 90% of the time you get nothing, 10% of the time you get $1,000,000. With 2 box, 90% of the time you get $1,000, 10% of the time you get $1,001,000.

More importantly, regardless of how good the computer is, the difference is always $1,000. This is the c term in the expressions at the bottom. If the computer is always wrong, with 2 boxes you always get $1,001,000. If the computer is always right, you always get $1,000. And the one box strategy always averages $1,000 less.




Wait, why do you get $1M 10% of the time with the one-box strategy? The article reads:

"If it predicted that you would take only B, then they put $1 million in B. "

If it predicts that you will take only B, and they put $1M in B, and 90% of the time it's correct, why isn't the one-box strategy 90% likely to get you $1M?




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