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The liberal open Hong Kong we used to know has died in 2020, the year they passed the national security law. Elites and professionals in Hong Kong are thinking where to move their families to and those chose to stay have to accept they are now no difference than an ordinary mainland Chinese citizen. CCP did not and will not keep any of their promises. All the Sino-UK agreement and the promise of 'One country Two systems' are simply jokes to CCP.
The world needs to realize the CCP is a truly evil party and if let uncountered, it would eventually engulf the whole liberal, democratic western socieites.
Sure, the treating of Uighur people is very questionable. We don't have a lot of water tight evidence though, so while it doesn't look great it's also not clear cut.
What I find amusing though is how everyone focuses on that one story because that is the best they can find to criticise the CCP for whilst at the same time the US commits 10000x worse crimes as I have listed above.
Honestly, if China was as aggressive as the USA then they could easily pick a million human rights violations to ramp up anti USA propaganga in China and justify an invasion, but guess what, China is not as aggressive and war focused as the USA.
Last time I checked it's the USA which deploys missles, war ships, tanks and troops all over the world in allied countries, not China. China's military is just sitting in China. Not sure who people (who are not American) should be more afraid of... think about...
It really died in 2019 when the protesters started setting fire to other Hong Kongers that disagreed with them by throwing Molotov cocktails at them, or just beating a guy in head with a large steel pipe for moving a brick out of the street.
The CCP taking over now vs. after 2046 was the only predictable outcome here, but the freedom to speak your mind and disagree without threat of physical harm was lost before.
EDIT: The predictable downvoting without replying shows the downvoters don't refute the facts, being that protesters physically attack others who disagree. That's not democracy.
What's to say? The protests were against China's violation of the two systems agreement. There has been violence, detention, and suppression from China at every turn. Most of the protests have been nonviolent.
I think with major protest movements, the question becomes, is the cause worth the unrest? Unrest is a negative in itself, and always results in, at mnimum, damage to property and disruption of life and also more often than not injury and death. Some causes do justify some violence, but not every good cause justifies the unrest it produces. I do feel like China's illiberal and repressive attitude, including detentions, shutting down almost all forms of political speech, and, yes, violence do justify the (really, I think) relatively restrained HK protest movement.
If you're reading this in China, or are native Chinese, I ask you...do you feel there would be consequences for you if you spoke up in defense of the protests? Put aside whether you think the protests are a good idea or not. If you defended them publicly, what would happen? Whether or not you support the protests, I think you should consider that question, and decide if you like the answer.
And, yes, the US isn't all unicorns and rainbows. We may be moving in an illiberal direction ourselves. But we're not quite there yet, and there are still people here who can speak up, and even make a career, criticizing the, I'll just say it, evil decisions of our government.
That's not true. There have been countless violent protests that have destroyed shops owned by mainland companies (like bakeries, nothing particularly nationalistic), set fire to and destroyed MTR (subway) stations, thrown petrol bombs at other unarmed civilians who disagreed and the police of course, and beat a guy in the head with a large pipe for removing bricks in the road. They even videotaped this because they were so proud of their actions. The people they severely burned were ridiculed in online forums (calling them "barbecue", etc.). Hundreds of posters chimed in and liked replies like this.
At the end of the day many people on that side will argue that each case of violence against other citizens was just undercover police trying to make them look bad, or just an isolated incident. It's like saying "fiery but mostly peaceful protests" on the CNN chyron. People can't credibly claim to be "for democracy" will silencing critics with violence. Otherwise anyone can claim to be a/for democracy, and who is anyone to say they aren't? Might as well add the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), the German Democratic Republic (former East Germany), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the list.
| ... is the cause worth the unrest? ... and, yes, violence do justify the (really, I think) relatively restrained HK protest movement.
I'm repeating myself here, but violence against fellow citizens is not justified in the name of democracy. Democracy would be the ideal outcome for HK, obviously, but neither the protesters nor the CCP are offering a path to that. It's possible for both sides to be bad. Quoting another poster in this thread:
"If we cannot beat them, at least we should get to see it burn to ground."
Well, guess what? Many people in HK aren't up for destroying everything in their lives and don't agree with the "protesters". Does their opinion not count, while they're claiming to care about democracy?
Quoting the same person:
"I think the best move for us HKers is to work overseas whenever possible."
So these protesters want to destroy everything they can in HK, and _then leave_. Thanks for nothing I guess. Perhaps they should change the order - leave for another country, then start assaulting people and setting things on fire. Maybe elsewhere they will be prosecuted and face justice for their actions.
| And, yes, the US isn't all unicorns and rainbows. We may be moving in an illiberal direction ourselves.
There needs to be an absolute standard for what's acceptable in a democracy, so it's not necessary to compare HK to the US or the US to anywhere else, but since you mention the US it's worth mentioning CHAZ in Seattle. There is absolutely zero chance that something like CHAZ could secede from the US had they wanted to do that. It's equally naive to believe that China would relinquish Hong Kong, or that any other nation would do anything other than write a strongly worded letter if the PLA were to move in and take over. Hong Kong _did_ have an agreement to have a separate way of life until 2046, but the CCP finally got the perfect excuse to move that date up by 25 years. Losing 25 years of relative autonomy with nothing to show for it was decidedly _not_ worth it.
I think you avoided addressing the most important part of the comment above.
| If you're reading this in China, or are native Chinese, I ask you...do you feel there would be consequences for you if you spoke up in defense of the protests? Put aside whether you think the protests are a good idea or not. If you defended them publicly, what would happen? Whether or not you support the protests, I think you should consider that question, and decide if you like the answer.
It's ok if you don't want to address it, but maybe you shall take some time to think about why.
I don’t know how most people view it, but caring for the people in HK became for me a plea for them to get out, because there seems to be no way left for them to keep integrity while still living in their home.
Following the events was sheer pain, and at some point you have to cut the stream because it really was despair pouring in news after news.
From CCP's point of view, there is absolutely no advantage in giving democracy to citizens of HK. The only objective of HK is to be (economically) "prosperous" and "stable, quoting from official slogans.
Many mainlanders come to HK for its high salary, often more than double that of Shenzhen and Shanghai, and even more compared to smaller cities in China. I think the salary of professionals in HK exceeds at least Taiwan, Japan, some of Europe, among others.
Last year's District Council elections resulted in a landslide of anti-establishment getting in office. Then CCP decided this is not acceptable and stripped them of the right to vote for the head of HK. But this view is never shared in the years before, where the District Council is filled with pro-establishment parties like DAB.
Considering economical "prosperity" is the only metric of success as seen by CCP to HK, no wonder they are doing this move to further make HK "stable".
That said, I think the best move for us HKers is to work overseas whenever possible. Shameless plug: HKU EE/CS graduate here up for hire.
If we cannot beat them, at least we should get to see it burn to ground. Laam Chau.
America should allow open immigration from Hong Kong for a year. China by all rights has a claim to the land. But the people who want freedom should have it and we should take them in.
That fear is overblown due to media focus. Attacks against Asians happen, but not in numbers that should make anyone hesitant to live here. If the media publicized every vending machine that crushed someone people would be scared of them, but the reality is different
I traveled to Hong-Kong right in the middle of protests and I actually felt much safer than in the US and my home country (France), and I am a white guy. It is ironic when protesters chanted "Hong-Kong is not safe", these people probably never went to the US or Europe, let alone Africa...
It is not just the media, many western countries are unacceptably unsafe relative to their wealth and that includes the US. I mean, when you have to lock a bike with a lock that is heavier and more expensive than the bike itself, there is a problem. Going to low-crime country is always a pleasure and I would understand Hong-Kongers for refusing to leave for that reason.
Compared to the U.S., anti-Asian sentiment is actually worse in Canada and Australia right now by some objective measures, according to a talk I attended yesterday by Dr. Russell Jeung (Asian-American Studies). He didn't mention the U.K.
That said, it makes sense that someone from a city-state that was formerly part of the british commonwealth would want to move (back) to the commonwealth.
One example: the higher education systems within the commonwealth are more interlinked and university degrees more widely recognised across borders. I'm sure there are many more benefits as well.
I had an coworker who lived in Israel. I mentioned that I’d love to visit, but was nervous due to violence/terrorism. She just snorted and said she felt the same way about coming to the US. We both realized that our fears were blown way out of proportion due to media sensationalism.
I do think about it. I’ve been to China. I have many friends who spent a great deal of their lives in China. I’m not sure why you think I haven’t “thought again” about the media’s takes on China.
Also take into consideration that the biggest anti-China propaganda is coming from the one country which is afraid of being overtaken as the world's biggest economy by China.
China doesn't seem to be a big problem in any other country across the globe. Strange. It's also quite funny how so many more countries in the world are afraid of the USA, particularly those with oil reserves and other natural resources.
Please don't believe in media sensationalism. Yes, covid brought us an increase in violence, but that was simply relative to numbers that have been declining for decades. I'm not saying that we shouldn't keep improving this in the US, but it's still an extremely safe place.
Also, most of the physical violence in the US is restricted to specific cities or areas within larger cities which you should generally be able to avoid.
Regarding ethnic violence against Asians, it's even more inflated by the media. The statistics don't support the narrative of regular violence against people from Asia:
Let me avoid the word "extreme" then - it doesn't make any difference to the core of the argument. One will be happy to live in a place with "very high" safety levels instead of "extreme".
I don't agree with your characterization of overall safety based on ranking positions. The US, as a few other countries, has very localized violence and that sharply skews averages. This means that it's quite possible to live in a safe area even within notoriously violent cities (which often have high violence numbers in relatively small areas).
Also, by international standards, the US has very accurate reporting and crime statistics. So while you can see a few countries with surprisingly lower violence numbers, don't assume you are comparing apples to apples in terms of how accurate these countries' statistics are.
So while it's true that in aggregate the US doesn't sit well in safety rankings, this doesn't mean that a clear majority of the country isn't extremely safe - as in the chances of you suffering violent crime being very low by international standards.
By the way - I'm not saying it's okay to have localized violence. However, it's quite possible, and easy, to enjoy very high safety levels in the US even if you are not rich (while this isn't necessarily the case if you are poor due to limitations on where you can live).
To me and hundreds of millions of others who live in actually safe places (and yes, with accurate statistics), it is mind-boggling that we would have to think about and avoid "specific cities or areas within larger cities". That's not normal. That's not '"very high" safety levels'.
If you want to improve, then you first have to admit to the problem and not make excuses.
I was taught to always compare to those that do better, not just point at an awful shithole and say "see how good we are doing compared to them!" The US is not an "extremely safe place" compared to those that do best and it's extremely bad in racisme. No other western democracy imprison such a huge chunk of its population based on the color of their skin. Even in a relatively safe place in the US there's a way higher risk of gun violence than in any of the countries you should be comparing with. Murders is off the chart.
Unless someone from HK has a good reason to want to move to the US then all of Scandinavia, most of Europe, some of Asia and some of America outside the US would be a way safer choice.
*) Unless the media sensationalism is from the US media against China. What happens on US streets, regardless how awful it is, is always nothing, but as soon as a single person protests in Hong Kong it's a human tragedy.
The UK has already allowed open immigration from Hong Kong, specifically in response to the Chinese National Security Law, but I'm not sure that this is really any solution.
That one is only for holders of the BNO passport. The passport is only available for registration before the day of hanging over to China. That means youngsters born after 1997-07-01 or those whose parents did not apply for them are out of luck.
People vote with their feet. Look where they go, or want to go. This has been true throughout history, from pogroms, through Iron Curtains, and including south-to-north. See this flow, it cuts through the b-s. All else is disinformation fog.
The people of Hong Kong have a claim to the land of Hong Kong. The people of I don't know, Shanghai have a claim to the land of Shanghai. The People's Republic of China doesn't even "by all rights" have a claim to the mainland. They do have de facto control. They have de jure control in the broad international view. The don't "by all rights" have control over anything, not over Taiwan, not over Hong Kong, not over Shanghai or Beijing. What does "by all rights" even mean?
That said, the US doesn't have "by all rights" have control over its entire territory either (native Americans, Hawaii, etc., etc.), but Hong Kong is meant to be in a special situation until at least 2047 by international treaty and beyond that by the people who reside there having a claim to the land they reside on and have since well before the founding of the PRC.
Human rights are human rights. It is land but the humans we are talk about here. Just like U and M people. When is chinese communist elected and when is Myanmar army elected.
$43 Billion has moved out to Canada alone. Imagine how much has gone elsewhere [1].
It will be very interesting to see if the rest of the world allows Hong Kong to maintain it's independent financial status or if HK is considered 'China'.
If china can get away with it, just like if Burma/Myanmar army can get away with its ...
Anyway it has been so for several thousands years of totalitarian rules. There is no way out of that horrible culture. Hong Kong showed them a more liberal way of life. Taiwan showed them the more Democratic way of life. Instead they choose to use power and a system with no succession rule. It is karma of that culture. An ever looping of bad luck, prosperity then chaos.
The CCP has now been in control of China for essentially everyone's living memory yet apparently the masses are still uneducated enough, too volatile, too vindictive and wild to support a democracy. Plus, how could the CCP not be elected if it's that great, after all?
Either the people of China, even after a lifetime rule by the great CCP, are somehow inherently worse by those above criteria than those in all functioning democracies or they're being played like a fiddle, gaslit like no one's ever been gaslit before.
Well, what can you expect from a country that ranks among the lowest in international measurements of civil liberties, government transparency, freedom of the press, freedom of religion and ethnic minorities?
Whenever you advise a ruler in the way of Tao,
Counsel him not to use force to conquer the universe.
For this would only cause resistance.
Thorn bushes spring up wherever the army has passed.
Lean years follow in the wake of a great war.
Just do what needs to be done.
Never take advantage of power.
Achieve results,
Because this is the natural way.
Achieve results,
But not through violence.
Force is followed by loss of strength.
This is not the way of Tao.
That which goes against the Tao comes to an early end.
So your opinion is HK became awful (thorns, weak) because of British imperialism? Seems to me this doesn't make any sense otherwise in context. Force is what took it from China and force is what was used in an attempt to keep status quo.
It's interesting how my remark on CCP was quite appreciated with upvotes before it was swarmed with downvotes by people like you who impetuously jumped the conclusion shark too quickly.
Perchance there is an empirical relationship when a population grows to a sufficiently large n that sneakiness would be rightfully ignored as a function of implicitness, which is perhaps the trajectory in which hn-as-a-community is embracing a more reddit-ish sentiment. Hmm I guess it's a feature and not a bug?
It was done the moment the 99 year lease ran out and the UK handed it back , the Chinese would not tolerate a visible relic of the Opium wars being dictated to by foreigners i.e 2047 Basic Law guarantee.
They tore up the agreement when it became expedient (they declared "historical document of no significance") to do so.
Taiwan will be a bigger deal geopolitically. PRC has no claim to Taiwan that's recognized by the broader international community (outside China's sphere of influence, anyway.) Under Westphalian rules Hong Kong is seen as an internal matter, but Taiwan would be a straight-up war. Plus it would absolutely wreck the semiconductor industry worldwide to lose TSMC.
That will be shortest war ever. If China does an embargo on Taiwan and encircles it, there's nothing that Taiwan could do in the long run. They will be forced to negotiate. And you can bet the US has no intention to intervene.
It would most likely not be a very short war if the people of Taiwan are serious about their independence. What's an embargo really going to do? Piss off the whole world and create a shitload of sanctions on China. Taiwan is not a city state. They'd be devastated economically, but they'd survive for a good while.
Taiwan is now building their own long range missiles to enable them to counter-attack strategic locations (marine bases etc) along the China mainland coast. A war would be devastating to China, both economically and to their military. Trying to actually invade Taiwan would incur huge loses considering how defensible Taiwan is. If Taiwan managed to weaken them, it's a real possibility that the US will step in to defend. And most likely China would have to back off if the US made anything resembling a serious threat. The US has stepped into global conflicts for far less. A war or embargo on Taiwan would be the biggest crisis in the international economy since the oil crisis of the 1970s.
I'm split on whether China would actually do this. I'm certain it'd be a huge mistake, but the CCP has no regard for what's reasonable outside of their own self-preservation. They are facing the biggest senior citizen boom in history, and they have really not built up their economy well enough to face it. They're getting stuck in an unfortunate situation where they want to move low-value manufacturing out of China to continue to grow. But they have not built up enough international trust to do high-value design and manufacturing for export. Not at a scale that'd support one billion people. It's possible that the CCP will make moves on Taiwan to drum up support and distract from a growing economic crisis. It might work, but the Chinese people are not stupid. They'd not be happy. I don't think a large peoples uprising is likely, but it could destabilize the party internally, shifting power from one faction to another. It'd be extremely destabilizing, and stability and economic prosperity is really the main thing that has built support for the CCP.
There's a small chance that it'd trigger some uprising in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Hong Kong too.
You’ve summed it up well. But, I still think Taiwan is next. China has been getting more and more aggressive there. A friend of mine lives in Taiwan, and told me that the Chinese have sent fighter jets deeper and deeper into the island’s airspace of late.
The US will make a lot of noise, but I’m going to say there’d be no hot war between the US and China.
Also, I suspect the PRC will do a fair bit of soft work before making that move. You’ll see pro PRC activism rise in Taiwan so that an invasion no longer seems so black and white.
Now, if China ever made a move on Japan, things would be different. But I don’t see that happening. Once China has Taiwan, they control the waters in that area, and there is no need to invade Japan. Japan would basically have to comply with China at that point.
From there, China just does their thing, expanding their sphere of influence, etc, taking over small targets that won’t raise too much ire from the rest of the world.
Anyway, if we’re making predictions, that’s my current one.
Pro-PRC activism is so dead that even anti-CCP activism in the form of the KMT is starting to look on life support.
Yeah, there's media organisations that have ties with the PRC and CCP. There's businesspeople that do. But the population at large is more and more that of the fiercely sovereign independent nation of Taiwan.
Saying Taiwan is an independent country would "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people" is more and more like saying Austria is an independent country would "hurt the feelings of the German people".
You are naïve if you think it matters. What matters is if pro-CCP activism is in international news or not. Not if it actually represent the average citizen. It would only matter if it was a vote.
China is a pretty soft target with things like the Three Gorges Dam.
The 1938 Yellow River flood is taught as one of the great crimes of the KMT and is in the consciousness of most of the mainland Chinese as one of the unforgivable crimes of the KMT. It's in fact one of the big ways in which the CCP took control.
They also know it can happen again, with the Three Gorges Dam or some other infrastructure and the KMT has very little to lose, it's already taken the reputational hit for decades and independent Taiwan will do it as required for self-preservation - they're not internationally recognised so any prosecution for war crimes is likely to be irrelevant. Beyond being cancelled out by China's aggression in such a scenario in itself anyway.
> Piss off the whole world and create a shitload of sanctions on China.
Since China provides the rest of the world with everything + owns the debt of countries like the USA, It would be highly doubtful anyone takes even remotely significant sanctions against China.
Ah yes short victorious war. Because taking over an island is so easy.
Chinese economy is also completely dependent on imports. US does not need sail its carriers to Taiwan, it needs to park half a dozen attack subs on Chinese trade routes. Same applies to Taiwanese program to build indigenous electric subs with help of Japan, once even few those are complete the equation changes completely.
PRC has no chance in hell for an amphibious landing operation in Taiwan. So this is going to take quite a while.
Having said that US resolve switches around every 4 years so given a proper timing they might sit it out. However there are some interesting consequences. Japan will test a nuclear weapon and a delivery system and commence crash manufacturing program to assemble an arsenal in matter of weeks. US will get kicked out from Okinawa and mainland Japan and most likely a containment alliance between India, Japan and Australia will become not just paper but more like NATO with Joint command, staff, plans etc. I wonder what Vietnam will do, lets hope for their sake they have a secret nuclear program.
Which is irrelevant when you do not have lift capacity, landing assets or any ability to actually supply the landing force. They could MAYBE land a brigade(which they could not supply for any length of time), said brigade would get squashed during night counter attack on day 1.
Landing a modern military force ashore then suplying it requires immense naval capacity that PRC just does not have. They could obtain it but such buildup would be impossible to hide and would take time. Not to mention you need to practice actually doing it.. before D-day allies landed in Diep, in NA, Sicily and Italy. From zero to landing on beaches in Taiwan would make Galipolee seem like height of military genius.
>And you can bet the US has no intention to intervene.
The most absolutely do. They might not want to, but they have no choice. Taiwan is a shackle in a long chain:
From South Korea, across the Korean strait, to Japan.
From Japan, along the Ryukyu islands to Taiwan.
From Taiwan, across the Luzon strait, to the Philippines.
From there to Malaysia (and Singapore) and Indonesia.
Almost nowhere along this 4000 mile chain is there a gap wider than 100 miles.
It is this chain which keeps China from freely accessing the Pacific Ocean.
If China could break through they would have unlimited access to the Pacific. And from
there to the rest of the world. That is an existential threat to the USA.
That is why China wants Taiwan. That is why the US can not allow China to take Taiwan. Both sides know this.
So yes, China could most likely take Taiwan through war (albeit it at a high cost). But wars are not over when one side says it's over.
The USA would absolutely carry on a multi-year war to regain Taiwan. They would much rather fight the PLAN
five miles off Taipei than fight it five miles off Honolulu or San Francisco.
Not a chance. The US would instantly have at least one carrier sunk minutes after declaring and that alone could break morale. It's like saying the US would go to war with Russia over Ukraine. Over Taiwan war is either not going to happen or it will be nuclear war. Whichs sounds most likely? The US will sanction and draw lots of red lines in the sand and then tug its tail between its legs.
>The US would instantly have at least one carrier sunk minutes after declaring and that alone could break morale.
Isn't that the exact reasoning which led to the attack on Pearl Harbor? "One quick strike and they'll be out of the war..."
>The US will sanction and draw lots of red lines in the sand and then tug its tail between its legs.
And that's the kind of reasoning that led to Ukraine being invaded by Russia. The inevitable result of China being allowed to take Taiwan is China sailing their own carrier fleets along the West Coast a decade or two later. Absolutely unacceptable. Great Powers will always use force when faced with an existential threat.
The thing that usually leads to a war is thinking the other side lacks the willingness to go to war.
In the pearl harbor analogy the US would be Japan, believing a naval force could win.
>And that's the kind of reasoning that led to Ukraine being invaded by Russia.
Yes, the US will draw lines and do nothing. Just like with Ukraine.
PRC sailing a carrier fleet just outside US waters is absolutely acceptable. The US made it so by doing the exact same thing to everyone else. It's only a matter of time before they have the capability. The big difference is that the US might go to war over such a thing unlike anybody else.
Another superpower is needed to stop the aggression by the US. US navel fleets belong in US waters. US bases belongs only on US land. If it takes PRC to do this then I'll happily cheer them along.
Keep in mind that regardless of who was in power, style of government, and everything else, Japan and China have antagonized each other for about 800 years. Japan is a net importer of food and raw materials. Taiwan sits in the middle of important shipping routes. Letting China take Taiwan would be national suicide for Japan.
Propaganda published, I mean, information published said War Simulations indicated quick win for China - I can't find the exact metric but if I recall correctly it was within hours a decisive victory to a day.
This wasn't the one I read but there's plenty like it:
You make it sound like China is free to attack as soon as it is reasonably independent of products manufactured by the TSMC. That's a scary thought because the rest of the world probably wouldn't be, putting China at an advantage over the rest of the world. The only way to stop that would be to make such a war effort itself too costly, which seems unrealistic.
The reason these changes happened today was that there was a very real chance that pro-democracy figures would win the election in a system which was rigged against them. This is also why essentially all of the pro-democracy candidates were arrested under the National Security Law. They were probably going to win the LegCo and would have had the power to force the Chief Executive to resign.
That's what the CCP always does: invade, stick their tentacles into every possible crevice, cut off any avenues by which it might lose power, and begin tightening and strangling, over the screaming protests of the local people. They did it in Tibet, they're doing it in Xinjiang, they're doing it in Hong Kong. They plan to do the same thing in Taiwan.
I am also upset by the lack of elections, but looking at the US politics from Hong Kong, I see a lot of similarities.
The attempts to silence and stigmatize opposition, to close opposition media outlets and deplatform them on social media, harassing advertisers to make sure they don't advertise with the opposition, and the media working with the government to promote some events or views and to bury some others — that all is painfully similar to Hong Kong.
You guys over in the US should take a closer look at that.
Quite a few of us are aware and are taking a look at it. It’s an interesting parallel, and I haven’t heard it drawn quite the way you did. The situation here is a fascinating study that I’d love to read about and analyze in retrospect. Unfortunately, it’s not as fun to live through in real time.
If you look at the New Silk Road Initiative with that mindset, China is in the process of building up influence over countries around half the globe. Foreign governments get huge loans for funding immense infrastructure projects to facilitate trade with China. Reportedly, these loans come with terms that prevent these governments from speaking or acting against China. At least some states are too poor to repay the loans as a lump sum, which gives these agreements teeth.
It's a concerted propaganda effort that is unfortunately not helped by the multitudes of people that uncritically accept their home country's stance on everything.
Conversely, if not for that argument, China would be a hodgepodge of local warlords (what it was post Qing, before ROC's unification). A problem of claims by irredentism is what time period do you consider the proper extent of a nation's territory?
This applies to both the rationalisation of Tibet belonging to China, and for not belonging.
And Corsica was part of Italy (or italian states at least) for 5 centuries and only part of France relatively recently. According to your logic it should return to Italy?
What do I mean by invade? Simply ask anyone in Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, or Taiwan, if they want mainland Chinese there, or if they want to be governed by the CCP. I accept that territory is won or lost, and the Tibetans and Uyghurs lost their territory, but they were definitely invaded and conquered.
I have asked many people in those regions excluding Xinjiang, and the answers are never as black and white as the narratives you read online.
In Tibet, people were not too happy about the military presence on the streets, the cultural assimilation or the mao statue in the shadow of Potala palace, but on balance are were happy to be part of China due to the economic development. People felt they would be unemployed without han presence.
In Hong Kong, the most common thing I heard was vaguely racist grumblings about mainlanders. People were unhappy with mainlanders behaving in an "uncivil" manner. There was a majority acknowledgement of China's sovereignty over Hong Kong, and a strong "Chinese" identity.
In Taiwan, things did fit your narrative pretty closely. People want nothing to do with the CCP, and many even wanting nothing to do with the mainland at all.
> In Hong Kong, the most common thing I heard was vaguely racist grumblings about mainlanders. People were unhappy with mainlanders behaving in an "uncivil" manner. There was a majority acknowledgement of China's sovereignty over Hong Kong, and a strong "Chinese" identity.
Really interested to know when did you talk to the people in Hong Kong. What you described might have been the views of some Hong Kong people 10 years ago, but it's definitely not the mainstream view nowadays.
Well, if you are correct, the CCP could/would organize a public vote in Tibet and Hongkong, just like France did in New Caledonia. That is how you handle such a question.
I'm just reporting some anecdotes from my personal experience that I thought were relevant to the discussion. I don't see how that can be "correct" or not.
I agree with you on the principle of the right to self-determination, but it's not so clearly defined. I.e. how do you define "peoples'? I can't succeed from my nation just because me and my family would like to start a principality. At what point does a group become a 'people' deserving of the right to self-determination?
Historically that is done when you either known the result will fall your way or you don't really care.
If California might have a small risk of voting to leave the US do you think the government would hurry and let them vote or try to block it?
I cannot think of a single example where there was a vote of independence where it wasn't either forced (by unrest, war, etc.) or the result was know or didn't matter much. Votes of independence are rarely happening under nice circumstances.
Have you read any well done and independent surveys that support your claim ? Majority does not support the take over like this and chinese identity is much less than hker identity.
We can all disapprove of what the current CCP is doing, but you cannot compare Hong Kong's situation to Taiwan, Tibet or Xinjiang, in fact you're muddling a bunch of completely different situations.
Hong Kong has historically always been a part of "China", you could say it was "invaded" by the British and then the Japanese during WW2.
I obviously disapprove of the suppression of the HK populace with force, but this is no different to how the CCP operate in the rest of China. If anything the British mandated China had to apply different rules to a portion of their own territory, in classic imperialist fashion.
> Hong Kong has historically always been a part of "China", you could say it was "invaded" by the British and then the Japanese during WW2.
Who cares about History? What matters is now and what people want now. If not, you could use that excuse "but X was always part of Y" to justify just about everything.
Well geopolitics is simply not that simple. What if the Chinese government kept telling the USA that california should hold an independence referendum? Might sound like a stupid example, but Americans would be up in arms at such a proposition.
What if China told the USA to end the trade blockade on Cuba so that they fairly take part in the global economy and climb out of poverty? Again, the USA would never consider such a proposition.
The reality is we don't know how many HK residents want to be independent. Ideally they could hold an independence referendum, but the Chinese government don't want that, and due to the geopolitical tensions in the world right now they're not going to take advice from Western nations.
You could make the same argument to the UK about Wales and Scotland, or Spain with Catalunia and the Basque Country. Neither government is going to let a referendum happen for quite a while.
> What if the Chinese government kept telling the USA that california should hold an independence referendum?
If there was good reason to think Californians wanted this, I'd be all for it. Also, there most pressing issue is American investment in California, which isn't so much of an issue in HK.
> What if China told the USA to end the trade blockade on Cuba
Not sure what this has to do with HK, where trade and international relations are generally better than the mainland..
> we don't know how many HK residents want to be independent
and we never will because PRC don't want to know, don't want anyone to know, and make it clear that it will punish democratic support, let alone independence.
> You could make the same argument to the UK about Wales and Scotland, or Spain with Catalunia and the Basque Country
And indeed, I would. But the Spanish government isn't ripping up agreements like PRC, plus its a willing member of the EU.
History does matter. You cannot just invade a country, steal territory and then later say "it doesn't matter if this was once your territory, what matter is NOW and now I own it so get off my lawn".
That's just not how it works. In terms of history Hong Kong belongs to China and only in super recent history it was "taken" by the British always with the arrangement that it still belongs to China and would get handed back to China. So now that China does what is rightfully their right people act surprised, because the West hoped that if a little bit of time passes that China will stop caring but they were wrong. China took care of what was rightfully theirs and kept a tight grip over it because it saw what the West wanted to do and honestly fair play to them.
When I read the constitution of Hong Kong (Basic Law) and the supporting laws in mainland China, I come to the same conclusion as you.
To me, this obviously overrides the text or "spirit" of any handover treaty, specifically the Sino-British Joint Declaration, as the Basic Law is a constitution.
Leaning on that treaty as a Hong Kong citizen or non-British outside observer requires either complete ignorance, or complete desperation to ever reference it. Which I understand for the people of Hong Kong who have no options and don't want the change of life, but it doesn't embolden me to see it as exceptional as it follows their form of due process, by the book.
So, I agree with you. Disagreeing with you requires me to have a completely separate higher standard than how governments we actually respect operate and what they would tolerate.
I'm not comfortable with any of the procedures, but I really do see how we get a very distorted view of what China is, its goals, and how it operates. And there is a level of constitutional consistency towards territorial unity, which is very predictable. If you are willing to accept that (and how almost every action can be construed to undermine territorial unity) then China is very easy to operate and live in comfortably. Not so dissimilar to an institution or amusement park where you never look behind the scenes and just do the PG-rated activities made available to you, and if you stick with that you're fine. Obviously not what we are used to and strive for in "the west", but not really the nightmare its portrayed as either. Its sad to me that even trying to explain things to you all in a pragmatic way could get me detained in China (because its not completely exalting the territorial unity of China and raises questions about it), but I really think its useful to understand and that its impossible to explain another way.
Here's how. Hong Kong is part of China, yeah, but it was (under one country two systems) an autonomous part, with its own constitution, law and judiciary, which was democractic. What makes a state? Territory, legal and executive autonomy, defense. HK did not have defense, but it had everything else. It was a de facto state, and unfortunately HAD to be, because it was to be democratic in China. Hence, it was de-facto invaded when the "security law" was imposed (in violation of HK autonomy). The analogy is not perfect, and for sure this does not make it worse or better (it's bad because it's a violation of democratic rights and against the expressed wishes of at least half the population that demonstrated against the extradition law, NOT because of souvereignity issues). But there is an analogy with invading a foreign country that is pretty strong.
I interpret the parent comment "Chinese don't want to be Chinese" as no one (including Chinese citizens) wants to be under the thumb of an authoritarian government. Not a racist comment.
Don't confuse anti-PRC sentiment with anti-Chinese sentiment. It is a classic strategy to conveniently conflate the two only when the CPC is being criticised.
Surely you should be aiming this at the person who said "Even chinese don't want to be Chinese" - conflating the two, and not the person pointing out how incorrect that statement sounds.
Both points are over generalizations. It's obviously a complex issue. I've been to Taiwan, I've been to Hong Kong, and from my conversations with all types of people the best I can understand as a foreigner is that the Government is not what being Chinese is about. It's about the culture at the end of the day. You could argue that some population of Chinese have kept a certain culture present from a particular time. There's a lot of what I was told (I can't really know) traditional culture in Taiwan. There was an interesting mix of old and new in Hong Kong. It's sad to see so much conflict as a result of weaponizing identity and heritage. The stuff of lore is what makes any story interesting, and we destroy it with inept government structures.
I think you missed a subtlety there, the point is not even the Chinese (people) want to be Chinese (citizens).
It’s not sinophobic to say that the Chinese government and the CCP are messed up. I don’t doubt that many Chinese people would rather they weren’t subjected to that regime.
That is entirely separate from hatred/fear/negativity toward Chinese people and/or their culture.
>If a US born american like his country, it's patriotism.
I'm familiar with lots of narratives that say an American who loves America has been brainwashed by the system. Or is in a position of privilege and is thus not familiar with the problems inherent in the system.
Maybe my experience is limited as I only live in a neighboring country, but the majority of Chinese I know here, and those I have met in China identify strongly as Chinese, even if they dont agree with everything the government does. This take seems borderline sinophobic.
It relates to what I heard in Taiwain (obviously from a biased leaning). But it's not sinophobic from my perspective, let me explain:
From the perspective of some people I talked to in Taiwan, they see it as they "saved" what Chinese culture is, and what China represents today isn't "Chinese culture."
That may not even be the right way to describe it but essentially there's culture vs government as the issue and they're not the same thing. A big fear of the non CCP people's I talked to is that CCP is destroying Chinese culture and that means they aren't Chinese.
Again, just trying to add some color to what I can identify. I rather add color than blur the lines.
Taiwanese are not Chinese though, so my point responding to OP wasn't about them. I mean people who are born & raised Chinese - they usually do want to be Chinese, even if its just in the cultural sense and not the CCP (but even then, most don't seem very vehemently opposed).
Taiwans different as they've had to largely reframe the Taiwanese identity to be more about the island and its history and people who came (including indigenous peoples), rather than just centric to the Han immigration history which was framing the Taiwanese identity more Chinese-centric. I don't expect them to identify as Chinese citizens, even if they share Chinese culture. But again, not my point.
True, I have heard of those people. The handful of Taiwanese people I know say only older people really feel that way anymore, though my mates are all in their 20s, mostly lgbt and living in Tokyo/Taipei - so I can't claim to have an unbiased sample
One issue I constantly run into speaking to friends in English, is that we use the word "Chinese" for a lot of different ideas (even the language). I think its a bit of a semantic landmine in English for these conversations.
You don’t need to have been to China to know that Tibet and Hong Kong share a similar fate.
Hong Kong will fall because China can’t allow it the freedom it needs to operate. The intellectual and financial capital that hasn’t already departed will exfiltrate and all that will remain are CCP party faithful who never had the skills or motivation to succeed the way the original companies did.
The outside world will see the same Hong Kong names but those will be preserved hides over an eaten-out corpse.
All right, how about this. Instead of parroting a common nationalist talking point (that is common across the globe) that is little more than a knee-jerk reaction to allow for blanket dismissal of criticism, how about you raise the level of the discussion by naming a set of experts on the PRC with a variety of positive/negative perspectives that you do recognise as qualified to speak on this subject?
Well, if you’re really interested in more info, there’s a place online where free speech and discourse happen, and they often discuss this very topic. Here’s one such thread[0].
More seriously, see any discussion on Tibetan Buddhism, underground Catholicism, underground Protestantism, Islam in western China, Winnie the Pooh, letters found in Halloween decorations, Taiwanese airspace, forced labor, etc.
I've personally started to avoid China as much as possible. I know it's hard but if world leaders won't strike, citizens must do their part. Buy local/non-chinese and avoid their products. This is the best way to strike them.
The citizens of China are only tolerating the CCP due to continuing growth. When the economic benefits stop rolling, people will start speaking up against the tyranny. Hopefully this happens before it's too late.
> When the economic benefits stop rolling, people will start speaking up against the tyranny.
No they won't. They've been gaslit, backed by the supposed evidence of thousands of years of history, that they themselves, though more so the uneducated rural population, are a violent, vindictive, power-hungry sort and that any overthrow would cost millions and millions of lives... and thus make the economy worse. And the gaslighting will only get stronger should the economy ever go south.
I mean, Hong Kong is the greatest thing that could happen to them. People in Hong Kong a bit upset with the Communist Party? Massive civil unrest in Hong Kong, helped of course by foreign agitators (see "Century of Humiliation" for that narrative). No way do we want that in China, no siree!
Put the violent mobs on every front page in China. The situation in Hong Kong is one of the best things that could ever possibly happen to the CCP. Does it matter whether there's provocateurs? Does it matter if there's foreign agitators for real? Not one bit. All you need is pictures of things on fire or teargas and the CCP rules for another decade through the stability it and so many preceding dynasties represented.
Does it matter if any of it is true? Of course not.
I m in HK and I don't know what to think. Between protestors destroying the streets like monkeys and the country punishing everyone using this as an excuse, we're well surrounded :D
Hong Kong shouldn't be independent but is China the right country for us, is how I jokingly troll both extremes.
End of the day nobody cares, we're still discussing who elect the mayor of the city and people are talking like we're losing insane amount of representativity. We had not much to begin with :D
I d be more interested to move on and start discussing how we elect the president of our country now that we all agree we should be patriotic ;)
> I d be more interested to move on and start discussing how we elect the president of our country now that we all agree we should be patriotic ;)
I take this as evidence that you are planning to overthrow the current government? You do realise posting this is an offense under the National Security Law?
Most BNO holders also hold either a HK passport or HKID, making it possible to leave in either way. China (and HK) not recognizing the BNO passport doesn't really change much for most people. I do believe there was a story here lately about some people only holding a BNO passport, not sure how that would work out for them.
Ha! You’re getting downvoted, but I really hope you do get to elect a Chinese government someday. My dad thought he’d never see the USSR crumble, so you never know what might happen! Best of luck over there.
Well I'm not sure what propaganda you see here. I find it a difficult subject to discuss here, how to elect the president rather than have him dumped from the sky, and it seems that there's always a more urgent patriotic crisis to solve before we discuss direct popular representativity of the executive.
If it's propaganda to ask the communists to give us the right to vote, then the country has progressed :D
Well honestly when you see them tagging the universities with the V for Vendetta logo, you wonder where the brain is.
But I d never call them cockroaches and I find it shocking the police does, if that reassures you... and I dont really dislike monkeys, just I find them a bit more disorganized than I wish political activists aiming at a higher level of government would be.
I dont disagree with the beautiful cause, just the ugly means, like for the communists.
Based on one of your previous comments looks like you are from France and living in China
> I come from France where we have the tradition to use saints' names (mine is a very classical example) and I moved to China and got a daughter there with my local wife.
Hong Kong is in China :) And yeah I m French by birth but I m gonna be able to vote this year when I become a HKer by heart, it turns out, thanks to the delay !
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