If this were a typical end of market cycle, I'd say spot on. However, the Fed owns 30% of US mortgage backed securities. The last time they tried to reverse QE was 2019 when we had that liquidity crunch and markets crashed.
I think this will be the end of many market cycles. This type of ending is much more uncertain. It happens every 80 years or so. War, a new economic structure, or a new currency are all on the table. I don't think deflation is possible without completely imploding the global financial system.
I'm really just parroting Lyn Alden. Check her out if you're interested. She writes great stuff.
Are things that systemically broken where bread and circuses can't continue? As long as the average person has affordable food and entertainment, we're lacking the precipitant necessary to embark on the new economic structure. A boring dystopia is our more likely outcome.
I think this will be the end of many market cycles. This type of ending is much more uncertain. It happens every 80 years or so. War, a new economic structure, or a new currency are all on the table. I don't think deflation is possible without completely imploding the global financial system.
I'm really just parroting Lyn Alden. Check her out if you're interested. She writes great stuff.
https://www.lynalden.com/fiscal-and-monetary-policy/