The potential for "productivity" is what I envisioned it as being when it first came out (and was resoundingly downvoted for on various social news sites, including this one, I believe): One handed work.
If you ever see someone with their laptop open in one hand and (optionally) carrying their AC adapter with the other, heading off to a meeting room, that's what iPad is for.
If you see a doctor walking in to the office, greeting you, then turning their back to you to clack something into a desktop facing the wall, that's what an iPad is for.
If you see a delivery person or home-service person (plumber, contractor, arborist, lawn mower) or even a cop sit in their car for several minutes as you look at them wondering what the hell they are doing in there for so long, that's what an iPad is for.
When you see a realtor have their laptop setup and using some clunky interface to hook into as you gather around leaning over a kitchen island to see some number or other, that's what an iPad is for.
It's not for coding sessions or writing novels or anything crazy like that. It's for plugging into a projector to do a presentation; it's for handing to you to sign after it's been used to swipe your credit card for a purchase, or when you receive a delivery; it's for your doctor showing you a test result without you getting out of your chair or bed.
Give it a few years, then it'll look less like a toy and more like the Jetsons.
Funny thing about the market, it gets to tell you where the sweet spot is, not the other way around. Your scenarios presume that the iPad's mobility will trump the disadvantages of the small screen size to the point it will replace existing solutions with bigger screens. I'm not convinced that's the case. For example, when I visit the doctor or dentist, I don't go to an "office", I go to an examining or operating room. You know, places where they like nice big displays so everyone there can see the details of the x-ray pics? Those rooms are already networked and they stay put day after day, so mobility is not a desperate need.
Some of your examples seem contrived, like the office meeting where someone is dragging their power brick -- as if the iPad was the only device with a battery that lasts all day (and that the office worker didn't just unplug their laptop at their desk, where it had been freshly charged).
Police in their cars don't need a smaller display, and when they're out of the car they don't need yet another thing dangling from their belts. Delivery drivers already have solutions that are designed for their specific application and I suspect playing movies as well isn't a high priority at FedEx HQ's IT planning meetings. Etc, etc.
"You know, places where they like nice big displays so everyone there can see the details of the x-ray pics?"
Where is this place you go? Because doctor's offices either have desktop workstations or a lightbox to throw up X-Rays (or will just show you print-outs). With an iPad they can just pinch out to zoom in. YC and Start fund seems to dig the idea of doctor's using iPads, seeing as how Dr Chrono got funded.
"Some of your examples seem contrived, like the office meeting where someone is dragging their power brick"
It's not contrived because I saw that constantly at the office I worked in (before I started working from home).
"Police in their cars don't need a smaller display"
The ones I've seen in cruisers have 10" display bog-standard notebooks (some I believe still use DSTN screens, which are ancient as hell).
"Delivery drivers already have solutions that are designed for their specific application"
Right, as if that gigantic gizmo with 1000 buttons and a tiny monochrome resistive pressure-pen screen UPS drivers carry for signature confirmation is the end-all technology for delivery drivers.
The last three "offices" I've been to have been an oral surgeon, a dentist, and the pet hospital. In all cases light boxes have been replaced with electronic storage and big LCD displays. The oral surgeon worked with printouts of the x-rays, however, as they were easy to mark up, show to patients, and store in a file folder.
It's probable the doctors involved had desks and PCs, but as a patient/client I didn't see their office. I saw them in examining rooms and operating rooms -- places where an iPad simply makes no sense.
We could argue hypotheticals all day and it wouldn't change anything. I'll believe your examples when I see them in the real world.
"We could argue hypotheticals all day and it wouldn't change anything. I'll believe your examples when I see them in the real world."
There's alot of evidence out there that it is being used for business[1]. And, even more pilot rollouts in disparate industries. It's still a really young technology in its current "slate form factor + simple OS + simple native/web apps" incarnation, but already iPad is starting to eat away at netbook market/mindshare.
I didn't find the examples contrived at all. They all seem realistic... I've probably encountered each one personally at least once in my life.
Just the other day I was waiting for a client in front of his office while I watched some people set up for a presentation in a neighbouring room that was almost literally that same example you find so unlikley. They had to get the laptop out, turn it on, get the power brick out, find an outlet, find a cable for the projector, configure the laptop to talk to the projector...
I'm not sure I understand this. Are you saying that iPads are easier to connect to projectors than MacBooks, or that with iPads you don't need a projector?
No that's what an ultraportable device is for. Maybe a tablet device.
Don't try to make it look like the iPad is the only option or the best option. Considering the amount of control that Apple exerts over this device AFTER the purchase, iPad can even be a liability in some scenarios.
If you ever see someone with their laptop open in one hand and (optionally) carrying their AC adapter with the other, heading off to a meeting room, that's what iPad is for.
If you see a doctor walking in to the office, greeting you, then turning their back to you to clack something into a desktop facing the wall, that's what an iPad is for.
If you see a delivery person or home-service person (plumber, contractor, arborist, lawn mower) or even a cop sit in their car for several minutes as you look at them wondering what the hell they are doing in there for so long, that's what an iPad is for.
When you see a realtor have their laptop setup and using some clunky interface to hook into as you gather around leaning over a kitchen island to see some number or other, that's what an iPad is for.
It's not for coding sessions or writing novels or anything crazy like that. It's for plugging into a projector to do a presentation; it's for handing to you to sign after it's been used to swipe your credit card for a purchase, or when you receive a delivery; it's for your doctor showing you a test result without you getting out of your chair or bed.
Give it a few years, then it'll look less like a toy and more like the Jetsons.