The potential for "productivity" is what I envisioned it as being when it first came out (and was resoundingly downvoted for on various social news sites, including this one, I believe): One handed work.
If you ever see someone with their laptop open in one hand and (optionally) carrying their AC adapter with the other, heading off to a meeting room, that's what iPad is for.
If you see a doctor walking in to the office, greeting you, then turning their back to you to clack something into a desktop facing the wall, that's what an iPad is for.
If you see a delivery person or home-service person (plumber, contractor, arborist, lawn mower) or even a cop sit in their car for several minutes as you look at them wondering what the hell they are doing in there for so long, that's what an iPad is for.
When you see a realtor have their laptop setup and using some clunky interface to hook into as you gather around leaning over a kitchen island to see some number or other, that's what an iPad is for.
It's not for coding sessions or writing novels or anything crazy like that. It's for plugging into a projector to do a presentation; it's for handing to you to sign after it's been used to swipe your credit card for a purchase, or when you receive a delivery; it's for your doctor showing you a test result without you getting out of your chair or bed.
Give it a few years, then it'll look less like a toy and more like the Jetsons.
Funny thing about the market, it gets to tell you where the sweet spot is, not the other way around. Your scenarios presume that the iPad's mobility will trump the disadvantages of the small screen size to the point it will replace existing solutions with bigger screens. I'm not convinced that's the case. For example, when I visit the doctor or dentist, I don't go to an "office", I go to an examining or operating room. You know, places where they like nice big displays so everyone there can see the details of the x-ray pics? Those rooms are already networked and they stay put day after day, so mobility is not a desperate need.
Some of your examples seem contrived, like the office meeting where someone is dragging their power brick -- as if the iPad was the only device with a battery that lasts all day (and that the office worker didn't just unplug their laptop at their desk, where it had been freshly charged).
Police in their cars don't need a smaller display, and when they're out of the car they don't need yet another thing dangling from their belts. Delivery drivers already have solutions that are designed for their specific application and I suspect playing movies as well isn't a high priority at FedEx HQ's IT planning meetings. Etc, etc.
"You know, places where they like nice big displays so everyone there can see the details of the x-ray pics?"
Where is this place you go? Because doctor's offices either have desktop workstations or a lightbox to throw up X-Rays (or will just show you print-outs). With an iPad they can just pinch out to zoom in. YC and Start fund seems to dig the idea of doctor's using iPads, seeing as how Dr Chrono got funded.
"Some of your examples seem contrived, like the office meeting where someone is dragging their power brick"
It's not contrived because I saw that constantly at the office I worked in (before I started working from home).
"Police in their cars don't need a smaller display"
The ones I've seen in cruisers have 10" display bog-standard notebooks (some I believe still use DSTN screens, which are ancient as hell).
"Delivery drivers already have solutions that are designed for their specific application"
Right, as if that gigantic gizmo with 1000 buttons and a tiny monochrome resistive pressure-pen screen UPS drivers carry for signature confirmation is the end-all technology for delivery drivers.
The last three "offices" I've been to have been an oral surgeon, a dentist, and the pet hospital. In all cases light boxes have been replaced with electronic storage and big LCD displays. The oral surgeon worked with printouts of the x-rays, however, as they were easy to mark up, show to patients, and store in a file folder.
It's probable the doctors involved had desks and PCs, but as a patient/client I didn't see their office. I saw them in examining rooms and operating rooms -- places where an iPad simply makes no sense.
We could argue hypotheticals all day and it wouldn't change anything. I'll believe your examples when I see them in the real world.
"We could argue hypotheticals all day and it wouldn't change anything. I'll believe your examples when I see them in the real world."
There's alot of evidence out there that it is being used for business[1]. And, even more pilot rollouts in disparate industries. It's still a really young technology in its current "slate form factor + simple OS + simple native/web apps" incarnation, but already iPad is starting to eat away at netbook market/mindshare.
I didn't find the examples contrived at all. They all seem realistic... I've probably encountered each one personally at least once in my life.
Just the other day I was waiting for a client in front of his office while I watched some people set up for a presentation in a neighbouring room that was almost literally that same example you find so unlikley. They had to get the laptop out, turn it on, get the power brick out, find an outlet, find a cable for the projector, configure the laptop to talk to the projector...
I'm not sure I understand this. Are you saying that iPads are easier to connect to projectors than MacBooks, or that with iPads you don't need a projector?
No that's what an ultraportable device is for. Maybe a tablet device.
Don't try to make it look like the iPad is the only option or the best option. Considering the amount of control that Apple exerts over this device AFTER the purchase, iPad can even be a liability in some scenarios.
I don't think Apple was really trying to pitch office applications on the iPad as an example of what you would do with it, but to be an example of what you could. As if to say: "Don't think of this as just a toy, just a gadget, just a big iPod--think of this as a personal computer."
In that sense I think Apple's message is the same this year as it was last year. Consider Garage Band. It's not about the five bucks. It's not even really about selling more iPads (though it will undoubtedly help). It's really about demonstrating the absence of certain perceived limitations about what a "giant iPod" can do.
I think that's what Apple's overall strategy with its apps is: to keep pounding away at perceived limitations of the platform, both in functionality and performance, with vivid real-world demonstrations of what's possible. Consider that all five paid applications that Apple has demoed at the iPad events are content creation applications, striking squarely at the persistent criticism of it as a "consumption" device.
I tend to agree with the blog author, that Apple didn't yet found the sweet spot for the iPad’s usage. Everyone is different, and for some people (who maybe mostly interacted with other websites), iPad can even replace a laptop.
If I can speak from my experience, I still see iOS as mostly a gaming and entertainment platform. You mention that with Garage Band, Apple removed some perceived limitations about the platform - yes, I agree, but so what, for many it is still an entertainment application.
To sum it up, until now I am not that impressed with what App Store offers - they are just a handful of useful applications there, drowning in a sea of games/entertainment/kill-time apps. We are still far away from that so-called "post-PC era".
I think the popularity of games/entertainment/killing time apps on the iPad is more a reflection of the popularity of those tasks on personal computers in general. For most people this is all they do with a laptop at home, and it's not infrequently a part of what they do at work, too.
There are people who feel the iPad does each of those things inadequately (as with productivity apps), but the point is to demonstrate that it can do those things, whether you do or not. To show that it's not (say) a web-browsing device that can't game or a media player that can't browse the web or an e-reader that can't edit HD video. It can't do everything for everybody, but I think they're trying to expand the capabilities into doing almost everything for almost anybody (as a PC does) rather than seeking a sweet spot.
Anecdotal evidence: the iPad has completely replaced the laptop for my girlfriend. She hasn't opened up her laptop in months. She uses it mostly for email, for editing and sending presentations and documents via Keynote/Numbers/Pages/Dropbox, and for interacting with the numerous websites which she needs to deal with.
Since she spends a lot of her days on the move and doesn't like to work at a desk, the iPad has been a godsend for her. Before, she used to have to carry her craptop around and plug it in all the time to get power. Now, she just carries her iPad, and usually doesn't even bother to take the power supply with her, because the battery lasts so long. And she can use it on the bus, on the tube, etc.
Same with my wife who is a home health speech therapist. I got her an iPad for xmas and she hasn't opened her laptop since. It is convenient to take with her in the car, she can keep a large calendar of appointments and jot notes on her patients, logs all of her hours and does invoicing, can use it as a big map to find her patients' houses, has large visual references of medications and anatomy, and patients can easily do activities on it.
Then she gets home and kicks back on the couch or in bed and reads some message boards, watches some YouTube or Netflix videos, or plays some casual games.
I really wish I could do this. As a developer who programs, I'm still pretty tied to a laptop or desktop to do the work I need to do. But I yearn for the freedom to get rid of all that complexity and live off of just an iPad.
Maybe we'll get there eventually and building rich apps on iOS (or equivalent) will make sense. Or maybe I'll just have to become a rich VC and only need email and Keynote. Both of those scenarios would work for me.
The article doesn't go far enough: the iPad is the temporary hack bridge between technologies. The major function of the iPad I have seen among people who are not making hardware accessories has been as a social bridge so they can get work done in a place/time when pulling out a whole laptop would be weird, awkward or rude. For example: if you're having a lunch meeting and the other person is late, pulling out a whole laptop rubs in how late they were because you had time to "set up and settle into a device" instead of "messing about on your iPad" which is socially closer to messing about on your phone, and we hold no stigma against for a waiting person.
Having a sister 10 years younger than me (14) has taught me that younger generations are not use to our protocols and therefore hold no squeamishness about breaking the conventions of them. For example, if you have her (or her peer's) attention you know this because she has removed one phone(MP3 player) earbud to listen to you. She doesn't see continuing to use the technology as a potential distraction/rudeness, and in many senses resents the older generations (teachers/parents) for demanding her absolute attention for every trivial thing.
The iPad is our bridge from dropping in and out of the internet in the real world all the time, because a full drop is seen as rude, but her generation won't really care about that. They'll just drop in and out as they please, which is why I suspect that they'll have little use for the iPad, except as the training bridge for dinosaurs like us.
I've never seen us go "back" to any technology in anything other than aesthetics which seem to cycle. If I knew what was coming next though, I'd probably go build it. I bet it is exciting, technically currently difficult, and will make a lot of money.
Neural interfaces seem a little too far forward though, it seems like you'd need another generation to have that be socially "normal," and that they'll need their own cultural bridge technology. There must be something between an iPad and neural interfaces which lets us casually and continuously wander in and out of the internet.
a pair of glasses (in which you can see a screen--or transparency for augmented reality) with full voice control. Bluetooth keyboard and trackpad optional for productivity usage. Can also control via iPhone or iPad.
I've been saying for a while that I think the "next thing" is high-powered cellphones acting as a computing device (providing storage, connectivity, and processing power), with several different types of devices acting as dumb terminals.
If you're at home or at work, your keyboard and monitor auto-connect to your cellphone to provide a full-sized screen. If you're on the go, you use your cellphone as-is, or you use an eyepiece or tablet as an alternate display. Ideally, the main apps you use would provide appropriate user interfaces for each situation.
I think you're basically correct, but the docking devices are likely to be more than dumb terminals in some cases. At work that cellphone may plug into another device which provides additional, higher-speed processor cores.
I like this! I think the glasses are great because everybody wants to look important and busy while they waste their time on facebook and hacker news, and the glasses are right in line with that. Voice control I think won't catch on in public though, the blind have had access to it for years and despite the obvious benefits to them they just don't seem to enjoy it, it is too public. Once again, you want to look important while you waste your time. I could buy into the idea of a keyboard showing up on the glasses and then a camera catching your typing against a table though.
I'm looking forward to the further convergence of iOS and OS X.
As the owner of a mid-2010 Macbook Pro and a first-gen iPad, I think the new Macbook Air, which is a significant step in that direction, could replace both devices for me.
The iPad cannot be used for productivity work (coding, writing, even longer emails), but my 15" MBP is relatively clunky, especially for the type of consumption activities that the iPad excels at (i.e. reading on the couch, watching a TV episode, etc.) I wish I could have the best of both worlds.
The new iPad version of Garage Band really captures this: in some ways it's better than the Logic Pro I have on my laptop; I can play keys on it, I can trigger drums with my fingers, etc., but it's painfully underpowered (in terms of CPU, memory, I/O, etc.) to comfortably record a serious track on it (despite what Gorillaz accomplished).
I'm waiting for a Macbook Air with a full touch screen, and a new OS that fully combines the simplicity and interactivity of iOS with the power and breadth of OSX.
He's dogged on a lot of things that they then went and launched afterwards (no video on iPods, no tablet, no cell phone, etc etc) so I wouldn't take his criticism too seriously.
Admittedly, Jobs has said many things that end up happening. That the switch on the side of the iPad would not be controllable (which it is now) is just one recent example. So anything can happen!
There is a world of difference between Apple changing their minds on a switch and Jobs saying that they've done extensive user testing on touchscreens on regular computers and that it turned out to be worthless.
I bought an 11" Air because I wanted a laptop that was as close to an iPad as possible. I also have a 1st gen iPad - typing is an issue; coding's impossible but emails are OK (stick it in landscape and use the 1st gen Apple case and it's reasonable).
The Air is great but the real problem is when you are moving around. The iPad is perfectly natural to carry with you and to be used standing up - the Air, because of its laptop form factor just isn't.
I'm writing this in bed with a laptop on my lap. The bluetooth keyboard (at least the one Apple has) is just not functional in this position. And I do a surprisingly large amount of work in bed.
I'm waiting for a MacBoor Air with an ARM processor and iPad-like battery life. Other than that aspect, the 11" laptop is the best computer I've ever had.
That's interesting. I have the 11" laptop as well. When I first got it, I thought it was too small, but it's so perfectly designed that I can be quite productive on it and don't need anything much larger.
The same can't be said for other designers of 11" laptops as yet. You really need a great trackpad to work with, because you do have to zoom in at times, and a great quality screen as well. The SSD helps tons as well. The MBA is the best designed 11" I've come across.
I run Ubuntu on my 13", it's a great Linux machine. It was really tough to install without a CD drive, but finally I made it. Everything works, but waking from sleep and reconnecting the wifi takes ages compared to OS X.
That said, I too would love to be able to work on a tablet. Basically all I need is vim and Chrome. What I'm thinking is connecting the iPad to a bigger screen and using the pad as a keyboard, but nah it doesn't seem realistic.
Pundits keep missing the point. Tablets aren't about replacing desktops or laptops, they're about "anywhere, anytime, always on".
C'mon, people, it's a half inch thick and 24 ounces. There is no keyboard, and the bluetooth keyboard is more a makeshift hack than solution.
Mine paid for itself in a month by giving me the ability to work anywhere anytime - not work well as I would with a desktop, but work at all in the little 5-15 minute gaps, regardless of where I was.
In addition, it enhances personal life for the same reason: books, movies, email, games, internet, news, etc all in the same ubiquitous tiny sliver of a package.
Gonna do real work? Get a desktop.
Office apps are available not to replace the desktop, but to let you do basic work anywhere anytime.
And a notebook is a desktop pared down to it's barerest compromise to achieve portabiliy. Give up a bit more functionality and you get a tablet.
The iPad's success is getting me away from a desk for the first time in 15 years.
I will absolutely use my primary computer with its giant display for development, complex games, video encoding and photo work. I will absolutely continue to bring my new MacBook Pro to client sites.
But for everything else I will be slouching in my lounge chair with my iPad. Even typing out responses such as this one I'm typing at about 80-90% of the speed of a physical keyboard. Most of my leisure computing activities are browsing, Twitter, the occasional IM and email -- and I absolutely prefer the iPad for those activities over my MacBook Pro or my development workstation.
I've used a computer for 30 minutes since Friday. I haven't had a need to. With work that changes, and that's fine. But for play, this is without question my preferred device. Especially since I seem to be getting 15-18 hours of usability from a charge since the screen only needs to be at about 30% brightness to be easy to read.
I think your examples hit on a key point -- iPad use cases are decided by individuals, not by organizations.
I occasionally watch a CNBC trading show ("Fast Money"). The four traders at the desk used to have live market feeds delivered to laptops that sat on the desk, and those were replaced with iPads on stands last year. Now some of those traders have their laptops back in addition to the iPads, presumably because when you're looking at charts and numbers, bigger is better.
Honestly iWork didn't work on the iPad the first time around because the performance wasn't there. I found Numbers and Pages too choppy for anything other than basic editing tasks.
Secondly lots of office apps are based on traditional paradigms and metaphors related to printed documents. I think the key insight will be to create a new document type that makes more sense for tablet consumption, and maybe this new document will lead to a new kind of office app less reliant on the keyboard and mouse.
While generally a reasonable point of view, which I'm not really contradicting there are a couple of points worth mentioning:
1. Eliminating the keyboard dock makes sense just because the Bluetooth keyboard is a much better solution. I just put my iPad on a book stand when I use it, but Apple's regular dock would do as a stand. I don't use the keyboard that much - really only when I have a long email to write, or some text to write that I want to capture while it's in my head, but when I do it's vital.
2. Pages and numbers are actually quite popular on the App Store. Maybe that's because people haven't figured out that they aren't going to use them but I'm not so sure. I don't have a computer at home anymore, and occasionally I need to print letters (e.g. To the bank, to landlords, etc.). For this kind of light usage, Pages and an AirPrint printer work very well. For domestic use that's really all most people need. But without pages or an equivalent I simply wouldn't be able to do this.
So a less sweeping view is that doing light office tasks is actually very important for the iPad to be viable. It's just that it's solved now and the keyboard dock isn't needed.
But I don't use Pages (etc.), and none of the other iPad owners I know do either. What Marco seem to be wondering about is the killer functionality that absolutely everyone will be using the iPad for.
However, I think we've already found it: the web.
Maybe that's not the only thing the iPad will come to pass as the definitive device for. But it's certainly off to a good start.
I think they may be scared of the Amiga effect. The Amiga was a fabulous productivity and general purpose computer, but died the slow death it did because it was generally seen by consumers as a fancy video game console.
Competitors swept in, played down the "kiddy" game aspect of their systems and played up the productivity aspect and demolished the Amiga in the market place.
Extending a system perceived as a "gaming system" into other tasks has been extremely hard. Despite being decent TV-top web browsers for a while, dedicated gaming consoles have never really found a role outside of gaming for example. At one time, the PS2 had enough peripherals and such for it to turn it into a fully fledged general computing device, but it never took off as such since it's just a game console.
In Japan, theres a similar problem with pre-PC computers like the MSX, PC-88 or the X68000, all great general purpose computer, all viewed as game consoles, all dead dead dead.
(yes there are plenty of other reasons for the death of the Amiga, but the general consumer's view that it was a gaming device definitely played part in that)
That's really not the reason that the Amiga failed. It was more due to lack of compatibility with the leading platforms, tight coupling to broadcast television video standards, and a shocking level of incompetence in Commodore management.
For a lot of people, the iPad has ended up being an awesome platform for $2 games. And that's valid too. We like to play. Sometimes we play by making cool stuff. It's not as if the iPad is the first general-purpose computing device to have a mix of "useful" stuff and games; how many Apple IIs were bought with the intent of balancing one's budget?
The iPad was never meant to "kill" the laptop. From the very introduction, Jobs said it was to fill the role between the smartphone and the laptop. The iWork apps are consistently top sellers in the App Store. Apple didn't create iMovie and GarageBand because they are moving away from office apps, they made them because they already have office apps. So they didn't make an iPad 2 keyboard dock; it's probably because it wasn't a good seller. Most everyone I know uses the Bluetooth keyboard. I find it a bit of a leap that the missing keyboard dock means Apple is moving on from office apps.
My ipad hasn't replaced my laptop (I got an Macbook Air 11 for that) what it has replaced is all the other crap I used to carry around when travelling - books, media, stuff I did on my phone but is much nicer on a big screen, music making tools (actually I couldn't do this on the move prior to the ipad). I recently completed a two day trip abroad with my Tom Bihn satchell , ipad , laptop, wires and a couple of clean shirts (ironed using the 'hot shower' classic)
From my time as a volunteer high school tech support helper, I remember the first year that Dell shipped us laptops without the external floppy drives. This was annoying to many of the old-timers who had established techniques around booting from a floppy.
We got over it.
We don't understand touchscreens well enough yet. We are using an old metaphor (the keyboard) and porting it completely literally. We might never replace the keyboard fully, but surely there is room to innovate.
2. iPad makes a great productivity device in a supplementary role. It substitutes for reference books and documentation. And it's better to switch to the iPad if you want to read a long article. And there's those little single-purpose apps for doing things like regular expressions, drawings, recordings.
why the iPad is truly exciting: we can see that it has great potential, and while we don’t quite know its nature yet, we’re pretty sure that it’s huge.
We can begin to see what this potential is already. The key is the form factor and the input. (I mean, what else is there to the iPad? The whole point of the design is to reduce it to that point.)
The form factor is about personal consumption of information and about interpersonal sharing of information. It's about handling data and content in a way which is immediate, as if the app were your content and your're handling your content directly -- not that there's an app between you and your content.
Focus on these two aspects, and there's a good chance that your app will be revolutionary and disruptive.
The Ipad's Achilles heel is that it doesn't lend itself well enough to Enterprise, and it can't serve two masters, design-wise. In the same way the Blackberry got popular for enterprise use, I think even a slightly clunkier device which fit right into the standard Windows enterprise and gave IT departments a lot of control, business apps, and integration with their infrastructure would do very well. Closer to what the IPad would be if it was instead just a PC in a different form factor. Where is the Dell Ipad?
I'd like to hear your thoughts on how the iPad doesn't lend itself well enough to Enterprise.
I have nothing specific in mind that disputes your assertion, but the linked article below says this, which sounds meaningful - "80% of Fortune 100 testing/deploying, 366 documented mass rollouts."
I'm also hearing that Microsoft views the iPad as a potentially disruptive force in the enterprise, though that is second hand.
Sure, they are deploying them, but only because nothing really fits the bill better, and often because their users beg them for them as toys. My wife has a director-level title at a large biotech. Some of this comes from her experiences. Here is where it falls short:
Most large businesses have a variety of native windows apps they rely on. The ipad works well as a web browser, but misses all of these. Companies have large investments in these programs, and having them inaccessible is a liability for the ipad. As an example, I have seen business units literally "powered" by excel spreadsheets and VBA. The iPad can't deal with things like this.
Standard native file access. How do I open a config file with "notepad" in the iPad? How do I browse to the file? What app opens it?
Windows permissions. The iPad can't work with Windows file system permissions, so it is a second class device on Windows-based networks, if you want to access files, it does not play well with your carefully created Windows permissions, so those access rules and group policies are lost on it.
The iPad is not a part of the standard microsoft security apparatus, so it is "special" in this regard. It won't get Windows updates, security bulletins, etc in the same way. It needs special attention from IT, and carries separate and perhaps unknown security risks.
Since the iPad is oriented toward finger-touch, stylus apps don't work well, so note taking apps don't work well.
The app store is consumer and game oriented, something businesses would specifically like to avoid on their devices, generally. Because of the app store approval process, and low price point expectations "Enterprise" business apps are loathe to move to it and risk a heavy investment that could be arbitrarily destroyed.
The iPad's success in the Enterprise is really a result of a failure of imagination and execution by Apple's competitors.
If you ever see someone with their laptop open in one hand and (optionally) carrying their AC adapter with the other, heading off to a meeting room, that's what iPad is for.
If you see a doctor walking in to the office, greeting you, then turning their back to you to clack something into a desktop facing the wall, that's what an iPad is for.
If you see a delivery person or home-service person (plumber, contractor, arborist, lawn mower) or even a cop sit in their car for several minutes as you look at them wondering what the hell they are doing in there for so long, that's what an iPad is for.
When you see a realtor have their laptop setup and using some clunky interface to hook into as you gather around leaning over a kitchen island to see some number or other, that's what an iPad is for.
It's not for coding sessions or writing novels or anything crazy like that. It's for plugging into a projector to do a presentation; it's for handing to you to sign after it's been used to swipe your credit card for a purchase, or when you receive a delivery; it's for your doctor showing you a test result without you getting out of your chair or bed.
Give it a few years, then it'll look less like a toy and more like the Jetsons.