I'd be interested to hear you elaborate on that. I keep hearing comparisons to the tech bubble (particularly around LinkedIn's IPO), but I'm having trouble seeing the parallels.
I think everyone can agree that it's booming, in much the same way that the housing market was booming. Tech is sexy again, and that's driving investment and throwing money into the ecosystem that otherwise wouldn't be there. That said, the only real test of bubbledom is whether the valuations are sustainable, and whether startups generate profit commensurate with the money being sunk into them.
Google, Apple, and facebook aren't going to continue making $65MM talent acquisitions indefinitely, so at some point the penny will drop. When it does, the question of whether we'll have a popped bubble or an adjustment will be decided on the individual financial condition of the startups in question.
Could the current ecosystem be sustained if Google, Facebook, Apple, and AOL acquisitions were no longer a reality? No. Too many people are investing in features, not companies. Those startups can't survive on their own if there isn't a real possibility of a big exit through acquisition.
Nevertheless, it isn't 1999. Groupon is IPOing with at least some real revenue and exponential growth, and LinkedIn has a solid, if not expansive, userbase. If there is a bubble, it should only affect the startup world, and even then only the companies that can't survive on their own.
If those big companies continue to grow though there is no reason why they won't continue to make the acquisition's. For all the small acquisition's though your also generating new big companies that will be acquiring companies in the future.
A few years back there was no big social gaming company, now you have zynga cashed up and acquiring companies. Same thing could happen in the mobile space, a company that gets really big and then is able to acquire some of the many small new mobile development companies.
I guess I could see Rovio go on an acquisition spree. Still, I think any market predicated upon acquisition rather than growth and profitability is inherently unstable. That instability allows for rapid growth, but it also allows for rapid and catastrophic failure, as we saw in the Banking industry.
Well for acquisition's to happen their still needs to be growth and profitability somewhere, I guess the acquisition's are a way to gaining great efficiency in the market, if each need startup stays independent there is a lot of duplication in activities that support the main business operations.
Everyone starting startups, joining startups, or wanting to do one of those. The majority of people working for peanuts, in hopes of future riches, spurred on by stories of a few people making it big, obscenely big. Businesses with vague business plans, and sales pitches full of jargon intermixed with good ideas but for the most boiling down to "we're on the internet!". Investors getting excited about an industry they don't understand. All of this fueled by long nights pulled by young kids who's bodies can take the caffeine abuse for a while.
Now, I sure as hell hope this time it turns out differently, and even it working out the same it would be pretty slick (I wasn't quite in industry yet the first time around, so it almost seems like harmless fun to me), but I definitely can see some parallels. Also, I'm talking about the industry in general right now, not just YC.
All of this fueled by long nights pulled by young kids who's bodies can take the caffeine abuse for a while.
Don't doubt for a minute that some of us old farts are staying up late, downing obscene amounts of coffee, Red Bull, Monster drinks, etc., trying to get in on things. Hell, if anything, when you start getting older, and you look around and realize "I haven't done anything yet" a certain sense of, hmmm... I won't quite say desperation, but something like that, sets in. I've even spent a lot of time lately debating the merits of going ahead and ordering some black market "smart drugs" just to get a little extra edge. I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but it's awfully damn tempting.
For whatever its worth, plenty of people in this gig don't abuse caffeine and often don't have any at all. I rarely have more than one coffee a day, and often have none. I don't drink energy drinks or soda (except perhaps when out to eat). Francisco doesn't drink any coffee. Tom, on the other hand, has a bit of a red bull addiction. I'd guess anecdotally that most of my friends in startups behave more like me than like Tom or Francisco.
Sure, it's just a stereotype, although I freely admit that I, for one, do kinda help perpetuate the old saw about how "a programmer is a biological machine for turning sugar and caffeine into code."
Or, to look at it another way.... "The four food groups for programmers are salt, sugar, fat and caffeine."
All joking aside, my diet has it's good days and it's bad days. But I do like my coffee, that's for sure.
Better to fuel your mind with the right foods, supplements, etc. B-complex, good quality sea salt, the right fats -- all good for the brain. And it isn't followed by a crash because it builds capacity rather than squeezing existing resources to get more out of them.
Yeah, I take fish-oil, a b-complex, a regular multi-vitamin, ginko-biloba and a couple of other supplements, and eat moderately healthy and least part of the time. I try not not totally fall into the programmer stereotype when it comes to diet, but the bit about late nights fueled by caffeine and sugar, well... what can I say?
Trying not to belabor the point, but you didn't mention "good quality sea salt". I really think that does important things for the brain and nervous system.
Not really trying to butt in. I've just seen my quality of life go up so much and it's hard to resist sharing my enthusiasm.
EDIT: Oh, and I meant better to feed your brain better than to try "smart drugs". I consume caffeine like it's going out of style. So I didn't mean that.
Interesting... I've never really thought about "sea salt" as being something to seek out specifically. I do consume some, because I eat a lot of nuts (cashews, pecans, almonds, etc.) that are often salted with sea-salt. I have no idea whether or not that constitutes "good quality sea salt" though.
I'll have to do some research, thanks for the pointer.
