I was very surprised to see virtually all hacking groups declare war on russia over this war. So many APT groups are Russian but they do oppose the war. The expected cyber war is all Russia's to deal with.
The actual war isn't going well at all. Their reg troops are driving by wrecked russian equipment destroying their morale.
So they can't deal with reality, send everyone who dissents to prison.
I think Russia's opposition to a defensive alliance is that they have been planning the full invasion for quite some time. Ukraine never joined a military alliance because Russia guaranteed their independence and thusly kept NATO at bay and not 'on their front porch'. When Crimea happened... it made sense for crimea to be their own republic. But Russia's own actions and breaking of their diplomatic commitment is what brought the defensive alliance to the forefront.
As part of the plan to invade non-nato entities, they needed big allies to use as an umbrella. China's no limit alliance is giving them the breathing room to invade.
The expected cyber war never showed up, it seems all hackers turned on russia. Even conti melted down. This only leaves an infowar.
It seems to me, the attempt to crush Russia via sanctions is a primary goal. If a nuclear power can be crushed under sanctions and prevent war. It tells the entire world that war is no longer allowed. Borders are what they are, start building tall. Get free trade going.
The war in Ukraine isnt going well for Russia. They cant touch Romania or Finland. Georgia is rushing to get into the EU to avoid a similar fate. Yes Russia is threatening nuclear war over these but Russia probably cant touch it.
The big wildcard seems to be china. If they invade Japan, South Korea, Australia, India. Which is the fear... that will be World War 3. I can also tell you... that fight will be so broken... Nukes will fly.
You can't remove Russia from the internet unless you remove literally all their neighbours. Kazakhstan for example has how many links in and out of Russia? Do they not have the sovereign decision to make those connections? You can't just cut Russia off.
I think the 1 decision that could be made by the Sanctioning countries... At the big tier 1 peering exchanges you could blacklist all of Russia. Don't have to worry about cyber attacks coming from Russia directly anymore.
Cyberattacks are not limited to borders or geolocation- it can be sent/executed from anywhere at all times. And, like the letter mentioned, the request wasn't to "remove" Russia from the internet but rather restricting access to the routing towards Russian sites.
>Cyberattacks are not limited to borders or geolocation- it can be sent/executed from anywhere at all times. And, like the letter mentioned, the request wasn't to "remove" Russia from the internet but rather restricting access to the routing towards Russian sites.
Yes I know. That's why i said 'directly from', sure attacks will be proxied through bots or whatever.
Lets not forgot pushing themselves into the arms of China who ideologically hates them. They hold Manchuria... if the '1 china policy' is such a big deal... shouldn't they want manchuria back asap?
How the hell is Russia and China allied at all? China is basically the one protecting Russia and allowing them to invade Ukraine.
Nope. China and Russia share an oligarchic & mercantilistic ideology. They share a common adversary. They are economically interdependent. They conduct military exercises together. The countries support each other diplomatically. One even wonders if the West's preferred outcome is regime change in Moscow that weakens the Sino-Russian relationship.
>Nope. China and Russia share an oligarchic & mercantilistic ideology. They share a common adversary. They are economically interdependent. They conduct military exercises together. The countries support each other diplomatically. One even wonders if the West's preferred outcome is regime change in Moscow that weakens the Sino-Russian relationship.
This is something I don't quite understand.
After Crimea happened, nobody really did much. 70-80% of Crimea is Russian and it probably should have been their own republic after USSR fell. However, Ukraine just kind of got to keep that land? It was ultimately a problem. It's fine for Crimea to be self-determining.
NATO has never threatened Russia. A defensive alliance is never a threat. Obviously you only find it a threat if you have plans to invade like they do. Yet China and Russia feel threatened?
Even more unusually... it is NATO who feels threatened. They are worried China and allies are about to invade various entities. Taiwan is the first one, but Japan and South Korea are immediately next. India shortly after. Australia is not long after India. Obviously the USA will be involved in all of those.
Lets also look at the tally card. Russia is the one doing the invade thing. Not anyone else. What has been the response? Everyone united against Russia's aggression. Said, 'no thanks we're out, you can go play with yourself from now on' Where's the threat from us? We ultimately dont care about who is in power. We said, nope, we are closing our borders to you and your trade. We cant ethically or morally support Russia in their actions.
Mind you, who am I? I'm nobody and know nothing. China's own actions will reveal the truth in the near future.
If China truly believes in world peace and the end of cold war mentality. Building tall is far more intelligent than invading for land. It is china's ally right now who is breaking this. It is their ally whose actions are justifying the 'west' to be so defensive and feel threatened.
You know what the west wants? They want the sanctions to work. If such powerful sanctions can cripple a nuclear power's ability to wage war. The threat to the rest of the world is that the same will happen to you if you declare war. It would mean we are post-war. People can feel safe within their borders. Nobody is threatening anyone else anymore.
Sure militaries must still exist. Civil wars, insurgencies, etc are still going to exist. United Nations peacekeeping will always be a thing in the world.
china could lead the way. recognize taiwan as a country within a country. see quebec in canada. Then hold russia up to their diplomatic commitment to ukraine. dispell the rumours they are about to invade and demand immediate peace.
There are two primary reasons we think the Russians did it.
Putin has gone full conspiracy theorist, nostalgic, delusions of grandeur, fear of dying. He has locked himself away with alternative history since the start of covid. If Russia wants to defend its borders, capturing Ukraine decrease the length of the borders significantly. In a 100 years who knows? NATO might try to expand.
Personally, i don't see how anybody under the age of 60 can be persuaded with this logic. But it does explain part of the failure so far. Putin beliefs it had to be far easier and cheaper than it turned out so far.
I think the economic reason to do it is far more plausible.
Ukraine as a sovereign nation is an existential threat to Gas/Oil Russia. Since 2012 it has become clear that they hold enough gas and shale oil that it would break Russia's monopoly to the EU. That's could half their state budget, in a time the social security for the baby boom needs to be paid out.
I personally think they could have figured it out, but Putin is obsessed with gas and oil. To him they are the foundation of a Great Russia.
>I think the economic reason to do it is far more plausible. Ukraine as a sovereign nation is an existential threat to Gas/Oil Russia. Since 2012 it has become clear that they hold enough gas and shale oil that it would break Russia's monopoly to the EU. That's could half their state budget, in a time the social security for the baby boom needs to be paid out.
That doesn't seem right. The EU is intending to be carbon-neutral by 2050. Recent events probably hugely accelerated this roadmap. Even if they had started building infrastructure now Ukraine's gas fields won't be production ready for quite some time. That leaves them with a 10 year time window where Russia would have to compete for a slice of a dwindling cake.
Natural gas is a big deal, but so is food; isn't Ukraine a major exporter of wheat? Crimea got Russia the port access they wanted, with few consequences, and this is a time when the West appeared particularly weak.
I don't buy this. Once you get a country in the mood for war, the marginal cost to them of more war gets less and less. In for a penny/in for a pound as they say.
If anything, I bet China has had to think twice about Taiwan after seeing the way the world has reacted to Russia. China has not been tested against a determined, capable enemy and their credibility as a superpower is at stake. They could lose to Taiwan even if no one helps Taiwan.
This is an oversimplification. China can't support Russia directly for couple of reasons (from Taiwan perspective). Even neutral is a kinda bad.
* Russia is foreign country, invading other country. China respects sovereignty. Their claims for Taiwan are based on that - Taiwan is not independent according to their narrative. Huge military invasion into Taiwan is against this ideology. It proves that Taiwan was not part of China.
* If they are OK with invasion of Ukraine, then other countries have arguments for invading China, and help Tibet, Inner Mongolia or Xinjiang to be independent nations. China really does not want that.
Also they remind us all the time, that what happens in the country, happens in the country (China). It is country's business and nobody else should take part for that.
I'm not sure China is as motivated about the logical consistency of these positions as much as their strategic impact on China. In their defense, most countries only bother holding consistent positions when it is advantageous for them to do so.
As Mao Zedong put it, "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun".
They certainly engage in public relations efforts to burnish their public image and I agree that Xi is not crazy and would not make that task any more difficult than necessary.
But it does not seem like logical consistency is the driving force of their foreign policy.
Oh ya, like I totally dont get the relationships going on in asia. Pakistan, who typically hates Russia, is supporting them? China has a no limit alliance that apparently has limits. The 3 of them are seemingly dunking on India. India used to be good friends with Russia. Then you have border issues between India and China.
> Pakistan, who typically hates Russia, is supporting them
A rival for influence in Central Asia backing you committing to a fight in Europe that aligns the rest of the world strongly against you as long as it persists might not be doing it because they support you in any meaningful sense of the word.
>Interesting shift in US blob narrative, from Xi was embarassed and played by Putin because he's a foreign policy dummy, to now insinuating PRC endorsed invasion because superior US intelligence.
I dont think anyone is saying Xi is a foreign policy dummy. They have been pretty non-interventionist and Putin is KGB by his own words.
Immediately before the invasion Putin screamed to the world about their 'no limit alliance' and then immediately invaded a sovereign nation.
If China knew, then their words are lies. Xi Jinping lied to the entire world. Multiple other chinese officials lied to the world.
Worse yet, china's 'constructive' help coming soon is not going to be the help the world wants.
>s if PRC doesn't have recon sats and cyber abilities to make their own determination. NVM western OSINT of RU build up was sufficient to illustrate that invasion was probable. IMO politburo knew chance of build up turning kinetic but was under no illusion they can sway RU pursuing security interests.
That's just it... The idea I have is that China was aware of the new republics to be protected. The build up was to protect those. Not invade and annex all of ukraine.
>RU certainly can't disuade PRC from moving on TW if geopolitical situation dictates.
Nobody is dissuading anything against taiwan. If China wants it, and my pov is that they already own it... they could just take it. They aren't recognized as a country and have no military alliances. Not unlike ukraine.
> It seems US/NATO has failed to sway PRC (and India, UAE, ASEAN, Brazil) will continue to hedge / stay neutral because frankly they're not going to undermine self interest just because white people are now being shelled. So discord sowing continues to further entrench LIO block and shaming developing countries for buying wheat and fuel, which current sanctions explicitly allow.
This confuses me. The point of view that Putin embarrassed China is the neutral position. The China knew about this isn't the neutral position, it's the China is taking up and raising their army for various targets. Obviously Taiwan, but Japan, South Korea, India, and Vietnam.
Afterall, if there's no limits to China Russia alliance. There is no limit in terms of supporting the efforts in Ukraine. But at least so far... China has basically been sitting back. It implies there are limits.
No air force, because cost-benefit isnt there. Too many things to take them out. Not enough things to drop bombs on. Dont worry, they did airstrike the
Navy doing navy things? aka floating there threatening civilians.
Army is in terrible disarray losing tons of equipment to mud. Losing even more equipment to combat. Their MREs expired 7 years ago. Their army sure is looking pathetic.
It's hard to be sure, but he is now surrounded by (ex?) multibillionnaires who have all of a sudden lost much of the ability to enjoy their airplanes, yachts, houses etc, ONLY because of voices in Putin's head telling him about his historic mission (or whatever those voices are telling him).
I think his life expectancy has gone down as of about a week ago.
>It's hard to be sure, but he is now surrounded by (ex?) multibillionnaires who have all of a sudden lost much of the ability to enjoy their airplanes, yachts, houses etc, ONLY because of voices in Putin's head telling him about his historic mission (or whatever those voices are telling him).
On paper they are still billionaires because the stock exchange was shutdown. I really don't know how much power they have exactly. I doubt they have any sort of assassination capability. Nor do I expect them to exercise this.
Ultimately this is about defunding their war. Their ability to sustain this war has a very short lifetime now. They are now excluded from the global community. The Russian people are headed into poverty.
>So, and I realize all answers will be pure conjecture, what happens if the sanctions work? What's the end game? Can the proverbial tiger be put back in the cage?
Literally everyone in the world is hoping the sanctions work. If it does, it tells the world even a nuclear power can't attack sovereign nations and get away with it. If it doesn't... then humanity is not post-war and we're about to get into a nuclear world war.
>Russia has invaded Ukraine and Europe has responded in a unified manor. China gave muted support, but largely stayed out of it (at least vocally - but still traded with them).
No they didn't. China picked up the phone with Putin on day 1 and said peace talks immediately and made comment they respect Ukraines sovereignty as well as the security needs for all involved. China appears to have been sideswipped and used as as shield by putin.
>China is, of course, watching very closely, as they have their own expansionist interests.
This is seeming more and more like Russian propaganda. China has 75 years of foreign policy showing no expansion. They have all the factories and a gigantic standing army. They could expand and take quite alot. Yet they dont because they know war isn't the way. Invest the war money back in yourself and grow taller.
>How does/can Russia get out of this and save face?
Every good negotiator makes it possible for their opponent to save face. Russia has a huge and simple one they provided themselves. "Nazi government was toppled, we are guaranteeing the new republics. White Peace out." Though to get sanctions lifted im sure there will be reparations to be paid.
>Where will this go with social/cyber warfare - it has to ramp-up dramatically, no? Now that western Europe has increased its military spending, what does that mean for the "World Police" American stance that has been so prevalent since the late 40's?
Everyone is making this about the USA... the Russian propaganda was running all these 'USA imperialism' which hey... they have to get in line... the commonwealth is up first... but the USA didn't do anything. Didnt get involved other than showing unity with the EU. Russia probably predicted the USA would act. In fact, it looks like an awful lot of effort is being done to curb the ongoing russian propaganda internally for most countries.
> Does this, in fact push forward clean technology, or will it hinder it as now America and Canada sit in a prime spot to export fuel and make record profits for decades - environment be damned?
Usa and Canada are leading the way with clean tech in many ways. We have 10,000 trees per person. Canadian solar is top notch. Our automotive industry has pivoted in an instant to manufacturing EVs. Coal plants are gone or going? The only thing I think Canada is missing out on is nuclear fusion.
The world needs oil still. Oil rich countries are switching over. Lets not exclude awesome scandanavian countries. This hasn't been some sort of Canadian conspiracy to convince Russia to attack a sovereign neighbour. This is Canada being a good ally and offering conflict-free oil.
> China has 75 years of foreign policy showing no expansion.
Err..you might want to check your history there a bit more stringently. And say hello to the invasion and annexation of Tibet. The Sino-India War. The several Sino-Vietnam Wars.
(Vietnamese were probably the most battle-hardened folks in the 1950-1990's era - a half-dozen big foreign powers came for them and they sent every single one packing - though they did loose some territory permanently to China)
The occupation and militarisation of 80-90% of the South China Sea islands which are formally claimed by other nations. Including the Spratly Islands. The Chinese regularly threaten any military vessels that pass through here. Look up videos on youtube on the radio conversations.
Well..President Xi has himself openly declared that re-unification of Taiwan - along with all ancient Chinese domains will happen within his term of governance. And no (sane) leader declares more than one planned invasion at a time. So plans for annexation of India's eastern provinces are on hold presently.
Right now China is at the ending stages of modernising its military forces - a process that started a decade and half ago. Once Xi successfully passes his traditional term limits with no hiccups and consolidates his firm control on the CCP over all objectors, you can bet on a Chinese annexation of Taiwan in 2023-25 period. (assuming no economic disasters or another Covid variant)
Japan & South Korea are pretty impossible to annex without extreme mass casualties, especially with the extraordinarily heavy US military curtain and the eye-boggling dense build-up of weapon systems in place.
>Well..President Xi has himself openly declared that re-unification of Taiwan - along with all ancient Chinese domains will happen within his term of governance. And no (sane) leader declares more than one planned invasion at a time. So plans for annexation of India's eastern provinces are on hold presently.
Lets not forget Manchuria. Russia actively owns chinese land. If one china is so important to invade taiwan... giving up on manchuria seems backwards.
For all I know China invades everything soon and world war 3 triggers. Asia will probably be an absolute shit show. But from my point of view reading xi jinping. It seems more and more like he understands that war isn't good for anyone. The very low funding on military means he can invest so much more into themselves and that's how they grow so much more.
>Japan & South Korea are pretty impossible to annex without extreme mass casualties, especially with the extraordinarily heavy US military curtain and the eye-boggling dense build-up of weapon systems in place.
What I hope for, Sanctions against Russia work really well. War ends and the world tells the world that we are all united against territorial conquest. Our crippling sanctions can even stop a nuclear power.
Then everyone settles down knowing they aren't threatened like this again.
> The very low funding on military means he can invest so much more into themselves and that's how they grow so much more
China is now the nation with the second highest military expenditure after the USA. It has increased its military budget continuously year by year. China’s military spending far exceeds that of its neighbours and was greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in 2019.
Vietnam incursions were in the 1970s I believe. (Now I have checked) seem to have lasted between 1979 - 1991 off and on.
Island and coastal nations of the South China Sea seem concerned about the island militarisation going on. Taiwanese people don't have a particular reason to rest easy either.
Back? They currently own it. No country in the world recognizes them as their own country. They are not in the United Nations. They have no alliances.
If Taiwan declares independence and is recognized... and China invades to stop this.
Who can even stop China if they decide to take them? Nobody is coming to their aid. This is a super silly thing to say.
Republic of China (Aka Taiwan) is not the same thing as The People's Republic of China (Aka China). And pardon me for talking about Taiwan as being sovereign, which it actually is, but I recognise it's a little more complex than that: https://international.thenewslens.com/feature/taiwan-for-sal...
I don't think it makes any sense to say China 'owns' Taiwan. For all the formalisms you list, PRC exerts no controlling influence over life in Taiwan whatsoever. It has a free market economy, free elections, free media and makes it's own trade and political agreements internationally. These are the things that really matter.
And in event of PRC attempting to reunify TW, formalism will categorize that as a civil war, not an international one where sovereignty is violated like current RU/UKR conflict. As far as I know, PRC doesn't need UNSC approval to finish an civil war, it's already dejure a legal ongoing war. Plus there's all sorts ambiguity on 3rd parties aiding UKR with lethal aid right now, but aiding TW will be declaration of war with PRC. These are the things that really matter politically when bombs start exploding.
I suppose it makes more sense to say PRC owns "China" including TW in the same way it makes sense to say TW owns "China" including mainland.
A grab of a portion of east Indian states via conventional warfare, followed by cease-fire and negotiations is very much in the ambit of China's strategy. Modi is attempting to prevent this by scaling up military infrastructure on the eastern front, but its still way-way behind what China already has in place. (by orders of magnitude)
Can you give examples, because from my limited view all Canada has in terms of renewables is hyrdo.
All of our automotive industry is owned by foreign manufacturers and relationships with Detroit are strained [1]. Plants have been shut down [2]. Canada has only just started to adopt EV, Europe is way ahead [3]. I will concede that both Europe and Canada aim to phase out IC engines by 2035.
In my opinion the stupid investment in that pipeline the government bought from the Americans after they backed out was a huge mis-step. That money could have been spent investing in solar.
That I suppose is another huge problem in canada, we have a severe lack of grid scale energy storage. Be it pumped hydro or whatever.
In fact, one of the big problems in our grid is how many greenhouses have switched to led and sodium lighting. TONS more energy is being consumed. Also a huge problem for astronomers.
>All of our automotive industry is owned by foreign manufacturers and relationships with Detroit are strained [1]. Plants have been shut down [2]. Canada has only just started to adopt EV, Europe is way ahead [3]. I will concede that both Europe and Canada aim to phase out IC engines by 2035.
That would be somewhat old news. Most of those plants have either plans to reopen or have reopened. Not to mentioned several new plants being built in ontario.
No doubt many places in Europe are way ahead and not to mention the USA is kicking our butt as well.
>In my opinion the stupid investment in that pipeline the government bought from the Americans after they backed out was a huge mis-step. That money could have been spent investing in solar.
Hindsight 20/20. Unless I can borrow your Tardis, I can't go change it.
>People forget the trump white house tried to disuade Ukraine from joining the EU
I liked Trump in many ways but...
The day of the invasion... everything the democrats ever said were proven true. Trump was clearly starting shit with China because he's team Putin. Made the USA fear China and China became defensive and threatened by the USA. Meanwhile it was all just a play by Russia.
Trump is in Putin's hip pocket, there is more going on there than just "admiration". Putin has something on Trump that would ruin even him in the eyes of the worshipful Trump-thralls.
> China picked up the phone with Putin on day 1 and said peace talks immediately and made comment they respect Ukraines sovereignty as well as the security needs for all involved. China appears to have been sideswipped and used as as shield by putin.
This is just public display. Actions matter: will they continue buying Russian gas and oil?
The videos showing the aftermath of the nerve agent wmds used by Iraq against civilians were crazy frightening. literally entire towns were laying on the ground unable to breath. Not dead yet, just unable to breath. While technically nobody knows if Iraq fired them or not... it pretty much is the case they are the only ones who would. Iraq terminated their relationship with the UN and ejected all the UN observers.
In super hindsight, those sarin and vx bombs ended up being used in syria. It's not really a question whether or not Iraq had these weapons. The whole yellow cake nuclear stuff was unclear but that wasn't really confirmed that Iraq ever got nukes.
Everyone voted for this. China, France, Russia, UK, and USA supported stopping Iraq.
Russia on the otherhand? What UN security council resolutions have they got to back up this invasion of Ukraine? Nazis?
They went and made good friends with China to use them as a shield for their invasion. Even Pakistan who hates Russia suddenly becoming their friends. Over what? Fear of the USA? The USA isnt even involved in this besides just being united with Europe's approach.
More like they are afraid Russia is going to nuke them if they dont comply. I dont know. Looks to me like they are surrounding India.
Really though. The USA's war exhaustion is maxed out. They've been at war for over 20 years. They need to withdraw from all their wars and focus back at home. Start talking about peace and the need to only help where the UN and their allies agree.
>Citizen, here. I'm pretty sure, without looking it up, that we have been on internal war footing well longer than 20 years.
I dont think i understand exactly.
Like the USA has practically always been at war. I do believe right about the year 2000 they had no active wars. The USA loves war... they need to back off for a little while.
The notion of 'active' wars has been all too fluid over here. We had been involved in the Bosnia and Herzegovina intervention as recently as the mid-90s so nothing really got a proper chance to cool down.
>The notion of 'active' wars has been all too fluid over here. We had been involved in the Bosnia and Herzegovina intervention as recently as the mid-90s so nothing really got a proper chance to cool down.
I didn't know NATO was involved at all. My understand it was entirely United Nations. Reading it, still seems that way to me. Kind of feels like it was UN peacekeeping mislabeled as NATO.
We just need to stop all this war shit. Step back and shore ourselves up.
Wikipedia says NATO was involved 1992-1995, and that checks out with me recollection of those years. I was pretty young, and wondered why I kept hearing about this one foreign war that wasn't even involving the U.S.
>What are some coping skills you use or can recommend to tackle or just mitigate the impending doom that's hanging over our heads?
Mindful meditation seems to be the best. Look up a guided meditation by ajahn brahm.
>I've noticed I'm becoming more scared, demotivated and depressed as the Ukraine conflict marches on and irrational people make nuclear threats.
If the sanctions dont work we are not post-war as the human species.
Fear of NATO is pointless. It's purely defensive. Russia only fears NATO because they had plans to invade. NATO keeps the peace. Being opposed to NATO is being opposed to peace. USA war exhaustion is super high, it's everyone else's turn who wants to invade. Russia took this opportunity.
Now for the topic at hand. The Russian people aren't strong like various Arabic folks. Putin will stay in power and continue his invasions. There will be more, not hard to predict this.
Eventually Russian military will come along and shoot at the wrong thing. Someone who couldn't read a map drove into nato territory and shot at something they shouldn't have... or a bvr missile tracks poorly and downs someone outside the theatre of war. Russians have already 'misfired' on Turkish boats.
Sanctions need to work before that inevitability. When that inevitability does occur, the Russians have been clear that they will use nuclear weapons.
There are alternative scenarios but things like China having been sideswiped by Russia and used as a shield for an invasion probably isn't leaving a good taste in their mouth. They probably only knew about the new republics and Russia was going to recognize. China could turn around and put a stop to the war. I just don't see it happening.
Something went down, contact X.
Coop: X isn't the same company. It should be Y.
No seriously, same person. Contact either will be same person.
Coop: Same name, different people. I need contact information for X.
No seriously, same person.
Coop: I called some absolutely third party and they didnt know who I was talking about.
So what are you going to do now? You really need to contact X. The sooner the better.