What are some coping skills you use or can recommend to tackle or just mitigate the impending doom that's hanging over our heads? I've noticed I'm becoming more scared, demotivated and depressed as the Ukraine conflict marches on and irrational people make nuclear threats.
As a Ukrainian in the US, I am not scared of that. I am scared for the people over there. Hell, I am scared for the 19 year old Russian conscripts that were marched into Ukraine under what seems to be like false pretenses. Those kids and actual children hiding in basements and subways there are all really truly scared. The women being raped there are scared and I am scared for them.
But the nuclear attacks don’t scare me at this point. Best coping mechanism: stop lying to yourself that you must stay informed. Block your favorite news sites and focus on a project instead. Unless you want to get on a plane and go over there to fight (which the Ukrainian MOD has made an option for anyone who wants to [1]), what is your being informed actually doing for anyone at this point? If it is detrimental to your mental health trust me you should turn off the news and take care of yourself. Again, as someone whose home town is currently being shelled I think you should do that. Go create something useful in the world instead. That’s the right answer.
Excellent summary, if nuclear war starts all you need is a gun and enough bullets for your family.
It's brutal logic but there is nothing that an average person can do to survive nuclear war. Only remote isolated farmer/survival communities will be able to make it, if they will survive nuclear winter.
Anyone else in long term will not be able to get food with no petrol, electricity and slowly starve to death. And even if you are in surviving community the life will be back to limited tech, village-state civilization.
The idea that an all-out nuclear war will trigger a civilization-ending nuclear winter has been on shaky ground for a while now. It appears the likelihood of it happening to such a degree was based on the political/idealist desire to reduce the nuclear stockpile. [1][2]
For a more realistic view of nuclear war and its survivability, check out [2] (with a foreword by Edward Teller and author's note by Eugene Wigner of Wigner's friend fame).
I agree nuclear winter might not occur or not be all that impactful, however you still will have mass starvation as all supply chains will just disappear, including fuel for power plants. Cities will not be able to supply food and sustain themselves unless in very rare and specific scenarios.
With things like the Iron Dome and Patriot Missile System I'm certain the US has the capability to knock some number of incoming nuclear weapons out of the sky. People in rural and even suburban areas in the US will probably be fine, maybe lose a few years life expectancy due to cancers and the like.
Somebody's been watching way too much TV. Protecting yourself may be useful in an apocalypse, but it's far down the list. Top of the list is having some way to get clean water. Second is knowing and trusting your neighbors.
Stoicism can help. Stoicism's main line of thinking is that we have no real control over external events, only over our minds (even that's debatable but I digress). And basically becoming more Stoic is a long journey in learning how to worry about things that are under your control and stop worrying over things that are outside your control (such as nuclear war).
I'm not saying it's easy but it's the only life philosophy I read about that makes sense to me.
Even if it ended up as a nuclear conflict (and I think it's highly unlikely - everyone has too much to lose) between China / Russia vs the West they probably wouldn't bomb minor countries.
If there are thousands of nukes flying around and hitting targets all over the world it doesn't really matter where you life. You are absolutely right you won't die because of an impact or direct radiation in Tirana but you will die from nuclear fallout of many destroyed nuclear power plants or just because the sky turns dark for weeks or months.
Another take is, would you like to live in a world like that? Me, not necessarily.
But frankly, I don't believe a nuclear war is imminent. In spite of what we see in the new, Putin's army is moving on steadily and occupying more and more areas he wanted to have. At some point Ukraine will lose access to the sea. Then Putin can say, OK, I agree to peace - but he will never give the occupied areas back. And good luck getting these cities back without killing your own people - this is a completely different situation than defending a city that hasn't been captured yet.
Nuclear war would be possible if NATO decided to intervene. But they are crystal clear they will not and nukes are the only reason. Everybody is sending a lot of help, but not a single soldier (even though some individuals want to go on their own - but that's a completely different story than a military intervention).
I think the climate change / nuclear winter is the real issue. Life would become hell for a few years like in some horror shows we all like seeing, don't think I'd like to stick around if that happens but that's a personal choice.
At some level I'm afraid I think to myself: well my existence is a tiny cosmological insignificance, I cannot control that it is going to end at some point, and there's a significant likelihood it'll end in considerable suffering or in a way I can't predict.
It's hard to maintain that train of thought in the face of fear and I have little self-assurance that I'd manage it in more severe circumstances, but it is part of the process I use to deal with intrusive dark thoughts.
Every day in Ukraine there are people walking out in front of heavy mobile armaments with a single, hand-made incendiary, or just to stand in the way and demand that men with guns leave.
And every one of those people is making this rationalisation, at some level.
Stoics seek out likeminded friends, as well, I think. In this most recent case, more or less an entire country of them.
Exactly.
It's very hard to do, we are pretty much wired to worry...there are many evolutionary benefits for excessive worrying.
Stoicism just tries to direct that energy to the things you can control.
I am now dealing with two sick elderly parents. There are many many moments where I feel like dispair, fatigue, guilt or any other negative feeling. When these bad feelings pop up I actively try to focus on any task that can help their situation - make a phone call to some doctor or care provider, call them and ask them how they are, read about latest treatments etc. If I find that at this particular moment there's nothing much I can do - I try to let it slide. It's not under my control so no point in worrying.
It works surprisingly well many times, but there is no complete cure to worrying. Worrying is human.
Current journalism optimises for fear (especially after how lucrative COVID-19 reporting has proven to be). The more fearful and angry people feel, the more news they'll continue to consume.
It's best to take a break from reading too much about the current Ukraine situation. This doesn't mean being completely blind to it; however, balancing between your mental health and knowledge of current affairs will help you cope with the ongoing situation more than anything.
I was never afraid of Corona. Not when it started 2 years ago and especially not now.
But a homicidal dictator with his finger on the red button is concerning to put it mildly.
My way of approaching this is optimizing for survival. Getting a go bag, planning what to do when the sirens start going off. I understand there would be about 15 minute advance warning. I'm in central London, which if of course bad. But there is a strategy - to go to the Tube (underground trains) and then after the hit, use the tunnels to reach the outskirts of the city.
I was very afraid about COVID; I went on a preventive personal lockdown 2 weeks before the government one. Then in April 2020, when the data rolled in showing ridiculously low mortality I chilled and I spent 2 years waiting for idiotic governments to stop infringing on my freedom.
Russia doesn't have enough manpower to conquer Europe and nukes are highly unlikely. The narrative that Putin is mad is ridiculous, he just decided that isolation from Europe is the lesser evil compared to being surrounded by NATO countries.
Nukes are highly unlikely because retaliation would damage everyone on all sides, Putin is just using them as leverage.
Once one side has technology to somehow defend from enemy nukes, then nukes could become a viable option, albeit an incredibly risky one.
Dunno, people that have been watching him for a decade or more have seen a significant change for the worse as of late. He was smart, shrewd, and in control. Not so much lately.
It may not be so ridiculous. If you watch his earlier public appearances - he's always a stone cold sociopath in control. In his latest appearances he's increasingly erratic and struggles to keep his cool. Remember he's 70 years old now which is well into the risk zone for serious health problems. Alzheimers? Terminal cancer? What would you do in his place if you were told that? What if he wants to go out with a bang? He couldn't just straight out declare war on NATO, what if by going after Ukraine he actually hopes for escalation?
Sorry if my comment looks like I've seen too much movies, but even if Putin, as a human, have nothing to lose, everyone else in Russia have a lot to lose. I know there isn't lot of counter-powers but couldn't he be stopped by some Russia's agency where a lot of people have a lot to lose ? I know he have a great control over most state employed people including KGB, but doesn't this control starts to fail apart when everyone is afraid about the country being nuked ?
Bonus : it feels like a true opportunity for someone powerful enough to steal the power.
That's absolutely true. Remember that there's a bias for the kind of headline that reaches you: They tend to be the most sensationalist ones, simply because that's how us humans are wired. Everyone wants to talk about nuclear war because it's a grabbing subject, but few are willing to reminds us of mutual assured destruction, which is something leaders everywhere are extremely aware of.
I cope with it by learning more about it. Books I've read and recommend include: Command and Control by Eric Schlosser, The Doomsday Machine by Daniel Ellsberg, Hiroshima by John Hersey, The Making of the Atomic Bomb by Richard Rhodes. More generally I have taken an interest in existential risk, and can recommend The Precipice by Toby Orb.
I am going to die one day or another, and everything I know and love will be changed and destroyed either in my lifetime or after. Trying to internalise this is very difficult but the grim reading has somehow helped me understand it to some small degree, and helps me focus on the wonder and preciousness of this brief moment of existence.
I can attest to this. I live on a major fault line. I got serious about natural disaster preparedness back in 2017 with Hurricane Harvey and seeing how the federal response was so bungled. It puts my mind at significant ease knowing that I have my families basic needs covered for 4-6 months. It took a long time to procure everything, to plan everything, it was a fair amount of money, and I continue to spend an hour or two managing all of this on a monthly basis, but it shaves off a worthwhile amount of background anxiety for me, personally, so it's time and money well spent.
FWIW, I was in the position in my mid-30s where my partner was diagnosed with uncommon type of cancer. That particular subtype had an extremely low 2/5-year survival rates associated if it went metastatic.
Most people are going to suggest avoidance strategies. That does work to an extent. You can try to firewall your personal life from work. It doesn't stop intrusive thoughts, other people bringing it up in conversation, or finding something that will remind you of it.
What helped me the most was the opposite - I took to "negative visualization" from stoicism [1].
Meditate for 15 minutes - visualizing one possible negative outcome, really live in those moments, imagine what your life would be like, what hardships you would face, what you would look forward to in that situation. After that 15 minutes, take a deep breath - and realize that hasn't happened. Savor the little joys in your life.
For my particular situation, it helped with mindfulness. I would actively seek out and create those moments of joy.
People repost all kinds of very old videos and "flip" the teams on social media (either on purpose or accidentally), so I am amazed that I didn't see yet smaller bits taken out of context from this video to cause even bigger panic.
in 2007 art group Ztohoven hacked early slow-TV-like program called Panorama on Czech TV. They interchanged live feed from webcam with their prerecorded video with atomic explosion - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vObdyZmpoSE
There's nothing you can do to influence events, so you might as well just keep breathing, enjoy the moment and treasure your interactions with other entities.
As a mathematician I wonder is there is some kind of equilibrium that we could propose, or at least promoting an scenary in which what each side want is clearer. There is no way to reason when the rules implie a contradiction, but at least we could try to find an unsatisfacible model in which to prove (the execution plan of MAD) is delayed. That would nee to entangle economic, geopolitical and psychological models. We could model that in a bayesian framework given some priors. I don't know how political science and bayesian modelling is now. Another analogy is in poker, how could you train the current models to detect the best move?
Edited: I am thinking about this from https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=2410
Then a striking 1976 result called Aumann’s Theorem states that their opinions must be equal. Or, as it’s summarized: “rational agents with common priors can never agree to disagree about anything.”
So it seems is fundamental to know what are the priors of the agents. I don't know if Aumann's Theorem and poker have been studied before.
One way to cope is to understand what to do if the worse does happen.
http://www.oism.org/nwss/s73p904.htm is a decent place to start for that. It’s important to understand that nuclear war is survivable depending on where you live and what you do to prepare for it.
I realize this is still depressing as hell, but it’s at least information you can use to more accurately take action.
It may also be worth reading up on what it means when Russia puts their nuclear weapons on high alert. My understanding is that there’s still quite a bit of escalation that would have to happen before we’d find ourselves in a nuclear war [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-put-russias-nuclear...].
To be honest the last couple of months I was more worried about the slow but inevitable demise of humanity by making this world uninhabitable; so it just shifted time-wise.
I don't really like the fact a nuclear warhead can end my life and I am afraid this end might be swift but not instantaneous. I am too far from any interesting target for an immediate wipe-out. I think I am in the 3-weeks-of-pain zone but that depends on the payload size and location of the nuke. Maybe I get to roam the planet like in the Fallout franchise.
I am a fun guy but I am a bit too realistic for some...
Those of us who lived during the cold war spent 40 years where we originally practiced duck-and-cover (my parents) and then understood the futility of the idea. We came to rely on the belief in MAD and relegated that worry (no longer fear) to the back of our minds. You are worrying about a non-zero (but small) chance of nuclear war when there are so many easier ways to die in this world (riding in a car).
Instead of being scared, demotivated and depressed about war in the Ukraine, find a way to spend that nervous energy productively. Maybe join the Ukraine IT Force?
Look, it is suicide to launch one. Even the craziest shitheads like the Taliban and North Korea won’t do it. Even though some of these people are on the darker side of human nature, the dark side still has a self preservation aspect, doubly so for those who like to keep power.
Russia killing Ukrainians to secure Ukraine is still somewhat in line with other invasions of this and last century. We are not yet in madness territory, not by any stretch.
Most likely we won’t even hit the civilian casualty numbers of the Iraq/Afghanistan war.
> Even the craziest shitheads like the Taliban and North Korea won’t do it.
Never base military decisions on what the enemy would do, rather than what they could do.
Granted, your personal coping approach is not such a decision, but the maxim still stands.
Moreover, you can’t foresee what Russia’s position will be in 10 years from now. They might not use the A-bomb right now in this war, but who knows what ten years of paranoia and relentless sanctions could do to the leadership and the population.
> Putin is increasingly operating emotionally and likely to use all the weapons at his disposal, including nuclear ones. It’s important not to have any illusions — but equally important not to lose hope.
> “Every time you think, ’No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would,” Hill said. “And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.
Putin thinking he can get away with this is already a strong signal of madness. I think he lost his touch with reality and the situation is only going downhill from now. I'd like to be wrong on this one, but for a first time in a long while, I'm not optimistic.
I'd be curious to learn a scenario that leads out of this without any more significant damage or escalation.
Ukraine just got green lights to become an EU member. Let's hope this will have the effect of deterring nature and not more fuel for madness.
He’s had several other wars. In a way it’s kind of weird how everyone lost their mind over this one but not the others.
Maybe social media is the difference, maybe the fear that’s plan was for more then Ukraine. Not sure.
Biden has already given him the green light to take Ukraine. He explicitly keeps saying we won’t commit ground troops, unless he enters NATO. The message is keep your imperial ambitions to non-NATO countries.
He could have been ambiguous about sending troops. He could have sent lots of troops to Nato nations.
Announcing that we won’t do anything for a small invasion was completely absurd.
I’m assuming you’re not in Ukraine. If not, take a moment to think of the people over there. They’ve had a war dropped on them out of nowhere, and the men have to leave their families to fight. Lots have never even fired a gun and are now risking their lives, terrified. Be glad you’re not them and get on with things. For you things are likely safe and secure and there isn’t a lot you can do in case of a still incredibly unlikely nuclear attack anyway.
I'm in Poland, but reasonably far away from the eastern border. The first day of war I and many of my friends and relatives first thought was to run. Seeing how Ukrainians keep fighting and also world around us uniting against the enemy gave me hope. Now I think it is safe in Poland, because if they would attack us nowhere on the ground would be safe. I live in one of the biggest Polish cities, there's a fighter jet base here and I would hope for being vaporized if the war would go nuclear.
Otherwise I'm worrying about Ukrainians much more and it breaks my heart what happens there. Also I worry of this "justified" nationalism against innocent part of Russian population which had risen lately, but I do support even more extreme sanctions as it seems there is not much more to be done other than supplying Ukraine with weapons, ammo and aid.
For sure when Ukraine will win the geopolitical system will never be the same again. Militarisation will increase. I will no longer take basics for granted. I think we must all be more vigilant now.
However we're alive and make the day count, but remember that relaxation and rest also counts.
If that makes you feel bad, depressed, and scare I would suggest to actively stop reading online news or taking part in online, public discussions. Your feelings have no influence with the situation, if it is creating pain there is no shame in disconnecting for some time.
Look for people or groups you can meet IRL for simple activities. In the past I found that playing board games with strangers was a really good way to have a break from the depressing events, and you can often find open boardgame groups around you by looking on meetup or similar platform.
If you feel depressed for a prolonged period of time (more than a few weeks) I would recommend you to contact a psychiatrist in your area, just by precaution. They can help you put words on your negative feelings, diagnose potential troubles you may be facing, and recommend adapted measures to support you (not necessarily medication, that's just an option). I myself went through this process during the past year or so, that has been really helpful so far to deal with my depressive thoughts, identify some patterns in my thoughts and behaviour, and mitigate the negative impact.
Even before the Ukraine conflict, I often thought how at any moment there are nuclear bombs pointed at me by some other country and within few clicks away from being launched. I am just hoping there is no software bug or a mistake while they are performing tests, that would launch one.
Earthquakes, floods, diseases, sun exploding - anything can happen.
I was born in the 80s in Germany, right next to, then, NSA listening post. Everyone knew it was there, so there were definitely more then one nuke pointed there at any given time. Hell, even NATO had plans to nuke any Warsaw Pact invaders in West Germany before they reached the Rhine. It was, well, just that. I realized I'm not that concerned about nuclear threat, after all it was part of my youth without anyone really thinking about it. No coping mechanism that can be copied so.
I'm not scared of it. But my "prepper geek" nature somewhat regrets not having bought a Geiger counter ten years ago when I had a better contract and more money to spend on nonessential things. Now that I'm saving money for my forthcoming unemployment (<3 years of my contract left) and making plans for creating a software company, spending money on stuff like that seems a bit silly.
I recently watched Station Eleven. I know people will disagree but in my opinion this series had unprecedented realism. Even though it was about a pandemic its overall positive message also applies to a (much worse) nuclear war. Our civilization would go but mankind would survive and build a new and perhaps even better culture on the remaining patches of land that were still habitable.
Personally, I've been preparing for $generic_disaster_scenario for about a decade now. Not nuclear exchange specifically, but the generic ability to live without external supply chain inputs for a long while, and to defend what we have from would-be thieves. (Although we do have a few fallout-specific supplies and procedures in place, too)
To most, this seems insane, so we keep very quiet about it. But my wife was very grateful for my insanity throughout COVID, and now again through the (still very very small) risk of a nuclear exchange.
I still don't understand why people buy health insurance, auto insurance, homeowner's insurance, etc, but regard it as a sign of mental illness to "buy" existential risk insurance.
Thank you for posting this and thank you to everyone for the thoughtful replies.
I just want to say you’re not alone. I was recently in DC while this war was starting and I found myself having many of the same thoughts. The one that sent me into overdrive was, what if I’m away from home and the missile alert comes up on my phone and I’m separated from my family and can’t even say goodbye.
I haven’t been able to express this to anyone close to me out of embarrassment, as I know it’s mostly unreasonable. It’s left me almost entirely in my own thoughts which as many who have dealt with anxiety know, isn’t usually a good place to be.
Hopefully OP, others, and myself are able to take some of these nuggets of advice to heart and find a way to quiet the anxiety.
Long walks on a sunny day along Danube really help. Cut the news (only read war related stuff for 10 minutes every second day). And accept that most of that is out of your control anyway. Cherish and enjoy life every single day.
This is such an interesting question for people that lived during the Cold War. I guess you get used to the nuclear Damocles sword. Some people built nuclear bunkers, others moved to safer areas, others hoped to catch the nuclear flash in time to run into the basement, and others just continued with their life. After years of this, most people fell into the latter category.
I guess if WW3 starts it will be the same. It is unlikely to scale directly to nukes, and I don't think Putin has enough control of its military to start a worldwide nuclear war.
Are you also off-planet because of the fallout that would wash over our planet for the next several months? Because the blast radius is quite limited, but a nuclear annihilation scenario has vast amounts of radioactive dust circling the planet for quite a while.
You're going to die, no matter what. Humanity is not unlocking immortality anytime soon, and if they do, it's not for us plebs, and even if we had immortality, heat death of the universe is happening anyway.
So you are going to die no matter what. Tomorrow in a nuke strike, next week in a car crash, month from now from aneurysm, ten years from now in famines due to climate change, twenty years from now in heart attack? What does it matter how and when?
Some people are saying "we shouldn't stand up to Putin because that might be the end of the world". But is a world where someone like that can do whatever they want really world worth saving?
Despair is the correct reaction, but despair is the natural state of the world.
(But some people told me I'm not ok, so you know.)
Imagine if I create a robot that can replicate itself and use solar energy to serve all your city food forever. It will also purify water. Dig a bit into the economics of AI, only if you want.
We already do this with a society, no AI required.
Having people live longer means more people means we need more food and water of which there is a finite amount. There is only so much arable land, and so much water that can be made potable. Removing the salt from the oceans is quite expensive, and adding more waste to the existing fresh water would make it more expensive to make potable. Not to mention places to live near where people can work.
These are all hard problems to solve. There's no magical AI to solve it for us.
Is there anything good in this world anyway? Do we deserve to survive? Does it make any sense to continue self-destructing behavior and suffering? Personally, I don't think so, therefore if we will be nuked, so be it! This is what we deserve, this is what we did to ourselves, and there is no one to blame.
For me, this is pretty much return to normal, but I guess growing up under the cold war left me a bit stoic in regards to the prospect of dying in a global nuclear holocaust. Find Tom Lehrer's "We'll all go together when we go" on your favourite streaming service, grab a snack/drink and realise that it's more important to spend your time wisely rather than to spend it worrying about what comes next.
Life as you know it might end tomorrow, but it's just as likely to be a traffic accident, meteor strike, or something more mundane like a heart attack or cancer. Remember to live while you can. Death will come to us all at some point, and the specifics don't really matter when it comes to you deciding on how you want to spend your time while being alive.
As others mentioned, doom-scrolling will not help. Sitting alone, worrying won't help either. Here and now, there's little else to do but to put pressure on politicians in order to keep them applying harsh but non-violent sanctions on the aggressors, make them stick to their own promises of aid to Ukraine, as well as to be prepared help refugees if/when they arrive.
If you feel this is consuming you to such an extent that you feel that you _must_ do something, then direct action is an actual option. As far as I know Ukrainian armed forces are accepting applicants both for combatant and non-combatant roles.
I deal with it by having at least a vague idea of a plan. Currently, I have a place to go that seems reasonable based on all the fallout maps I’ve seen. I’ve settled on a signal to evacuate that hopefully beats a mandatory evacuation order and all the mayhem by 48-72 hrs.
I have live in Dallas TX, the place i would go is Ft. Davis or maybe Alpine TX. Both of those places are in Southwest TX not from the Mexican border and don't seem to be in or near any target list. I know the area very well having spent a lot of time in Marfa and Marathon ( i was married in Marathon ).
The fallout maps are kind of all over the place, you can GIS for us nuclear fallout map but below is a link to a simulation that is in alignment with the rest of the maps more or less. Granted, local weather makes a huge difference so take that into account.
The signal in my mind is a NATO soldier killing a Russian soldier. I wfh so if that happens i go work from Alpine TX for a week and see if there's an escalation. If not, i come back and buy a round of drinks for my friends for being a paranoid nutjob.
Granted, it's not that simple. I have a wife+2kids and MIL in a garage apartment. what about them? Also, we have 5 pets between us. Do i hire a pet sitter? heh it's ridiculous to contemplate to the point of being offensive to those with artillery raining down on them right at this moment. But given the brain i'm blessed/cursed with, thinking through these things is how i cope.
edit: i want to reiterate this.
"it's ridiculous to contemplate to the point of being offensive to those with artillery raining down on them right at this moment. But given the brain i'm blessed/cursed with, thinking through these things is how i cope."
i wrote my post over a nice hot cup of coffee while sitting in my home office waiting for a conference call to start. I can never know the fear and anxiety affecting those in a very real line of fire. I just want to point out that i realize that.
There's a 70 year precedent that nuclear superpowers can fight proxy wars without causing nuclear exchanges. So far none of those norms have been violated.
Having grown up in the 80s, this conflict isn't particularly worrying me, we've been much closer in the past.
Turkey has closed the straights, there is a direct economic embargo on Russia, and Belarus just joined the invasion to cut NATO supply lines. Russian armor is getting decimated by Turkish drones.
This is as "direct" of a conflict as it gets before Russia and NATO actually start shooting at one another. ...and it is not comparable to any other prior proxy war.
Ignore it and try to get the most of your current situation with the resources available. The nuclear threat is real, but since you can't do anything about it, you shouldn't spend your resources on it. Focus on things that are under your control.
People are required to spend 2 weeks in isolation before meeting in person without the table thingy. So he is litteraly that afraid of omicron. His whole shtick is low grade USSR style psychops that west keeps falling for. It seems only Ukrainians are ballsy enough to call his bluff.
Nuclear threat never really went away, we just don't have the emotional capacity to seriously think about it for too long. I could recommend relevant podcast episodes by Sam Harris.
Now that it's on everyone's minds, I hope it will not be quickly forgotten in the aftermath.
Edit: if you need an immediate calming down… Even a crazy dictator is unlikely to want to destroy the world, because then there would be no one to rule over. Simplistic, but slightly reassuring.
The World has two kind of problems:
1) Problems you can solve.
2) Ones you can’t.
If you believe you can solve a nuclear war, you should do it.
If not, your thinking about it won’t change the outcome.
So, focus on what positive change you can make.
I'm a Cold War kid and as such grew up under the specter of all-out nuclear war. We were constantly told that in 30 minutes, which is supposedly the amount of time for a Russian ICBM to hit U.S. targets, it could all be over. We all realized that when you get the warning that the bombs are coming then make that the best 30 minutes of your life!
Seriously, if they launch, they launch. There's absolutely nothing you, I or anyone else can do about it.
Now, if you want some consolation consider this: back in the 90's the U.S. did a launch-readiness test. Something on the order of 90% of U.S. silos could not be opened far enough to enable launch. That's on top of another 20%-30% of the missiles not being able to launch because of their age and the state of their rocket fuel. Then even if you can open the silo and launch the missile there will be crews who will refuse to launch. If you can open the silo, launch the missile, and the crew is willing to launch then you still have the problem that their navigation systems will miss their target. Finally, if you can open the silo, have a crew willing to launch, successfully launch the missile, the navigation system successfully steer the missile to the intended target there's always the possibility the bomb won't detonate. Keep in mind were discussing this about weapons systems that were deployed 50-60 years ago. Oh, and keep in mind we've developed missile defense systems since then - further depressing the odds that any of the nukes will be able to strike their intended targets.
In short, it's saber rattling. Putin is humiliated by the poor performance of his army and is terrified the West will realize the Russian Bear has no claws or fangs and is using the threat of nuclear war to ensure the West doesn't try to counter invade upon seeing how weak Russia really is.
I don’t believe anyone wants to escalate things to nuclear conflict. I don’t believe Putin has a literal button, there are logical people in the chain that would prevent such an escalation.
However in the non-zero chance that I’m wrong if humanity self annihilates then that will have been the story of us in the progression of the universe and time will march on without us which is what it is. In such a future we won’t be around to ponder it so it doesn’t matter.
So I guess my coping mechanism is pragmatic realism about only worrying about things that are within my ability to influence.
I’d recommend for you though only reading the news once a day for 15 mins and absolutely no social media or 24 hour news tv (especially any 24 hour news in the US) as anxiety is a reinforcing spiral and you sound like you need a detox.
Not sure if this helps but I feel that there is nothing I can do about it so I just don't think about it. Being busy with work, social etc obviously makes that easier.
I actually don't necessarily think this helps but it does explain everything and suddenly Putin's actions, while horrendous, certainly make sense strategically.
Ignore the clickbaity headline and that it's from 2015 - it explains how we (you and me) understand the situation vs. how Putin looks at it. It definitely suggests the more we push Putin into a corner because of our values the more chance there is of nuclear war. It's still unlikely though because Putin and the Oligarchs are rational actors in all this.
What has actually changed for you? Is there anything you can do to prevent the threat? What specifically is your fear that's associated with the threat?
Nothing has really changed if you're outside of Ukraine and Russia. There should be virtually zero impact to your day to day life.
I assume you're not a politician or diplomat. There's probably nothing you can do to change Putin to stop making threats. These sort of threats have gone on for a long time - there was a whole period called the Cold War. Nothing has come out of them so far. Why do you think they will now? Do you have some info that the intelligence agencies don't?
In my mind, there's nothing you should fear about the threat. You should have basic emergency preparations that cover a variety of scenarios. There's not much you can additional do to help your survival outside of going high-dollar prepper and getting a bunker and training/consultation (KI could be a cheap thing to make you fell better, but if you're that close, there's going to be other major issues).
Basically, all of this is outside of your control. There's no point in worry about something that's not likely to happen and that you don't have any influence on. You've done everything you can (assuming basic emergency preparation), so it's time to make peace with the fact that whatever happens you'll have to deal with it at that time.
I simply don't care, because it's all bullshit. I don't let the fear machine, or those manipulated by it, make my life miserable. If you let it, then recent history (that's decades, not years) taught you nothing. If you want to stop being afraid, stop watching mainstream media.
They're the number one cause of fear amongst populations.
We go from one fear mongering bullshit to the next. The very recent past had Trump, then Corona, now - without delay, coincidentially just as the corona fear mongering stops working - it's the Ukraine and Russia.
And if it's not fear, then it's something else meant to rattle our collective jimmies.
Here's a challenge!
100 imaginary internet points for whoever answers this question:
What was the major jimmy-rattling topic before Trump?
I think that the nuclear threat from Russia is overexaggerated.
Firstly, most of the bombs are probably rusty and in need of maintenance judging by how bad is Russian equipment so far.
Secondly, my country is part of NATO and we have NATO's missile defense system. Judging by how pissed Putin is about it being close to Russian border, it must be quite good.
Thirdly, I believe that among Russians, there are many sane people who realize what would happen with our world if nukes start to fly. They will not let some crazy guy take his and their lives like that.
First, there's a Tiktok meme about how if you're having trouble coping just talk to a GenXer. There is some truth to this. Anyone GenX or older grew up with the imminent threat of thermonuclear war as just part of your existence.
Second, if there happens to be nuclear war we're all completely hosed so in a way it doesn't really matter. A huge chunk of us won't survive the initial attacks. Many of the rest won't survive the period thereafter and I have to imagine that an awful lot of people will... opt out... at that point too. It's a bit like worrying about if the plane you're on is going to crash. You probably won't be around to deal with it.
Third, it's kind of amazing how close we've already come to this already. Let me introduce you to Vasily Arkhipov [1]. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, US destroyers were detonating depth charges to get Soviet nuclear submarines to surface and leave. Those onboard were cutoff from communication with Moscow and didn't know if nuclear war had begun. The command structure was that 3 key officers needed to unaminously agree to fire their nuclear missiles. Two of them voted to launch. One, Arkhipov, refused. Were it not for this one person's vote, the world would've ended in 1962.
The Cuban Missile Crisis is still of relevance today, actually. The US precipitated that crisis (by deploying nuclear weapons to Turkey) and Kennedy's recklessness almost precipitated nuclear war. For 200 years the US has had the Monroe Doctrine [2]:
> It held that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers was a potentially hostile act against the U.S.
Under this doctrine, Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba was unacceptable. Yet we're somehow shocked that Russia finds (and has explicitly stated) that NATO, being a hostile or potentially hostile (from Russia's perspective) military alliance with nuclear capabilities, on their doorstep was (understandably) unacceptable.
It's also worth mentioning Stanislav Petrov [3] who overruled an early warning system that had falsely detected a US nuclear launch in 1983.
Anyway, so I guess my point is you don't really have any control over the outcome so there's not much point worrying about it.
The conflict is localized to parts of Ukraine. There is no impending doom as long as NATO does not directly intervene. And I simply don't see Biden or Johnson sacrificing American and British cities for the sake of Ukraine.
To their credit, the US administration has been fairly calm given the circumstances. It is the European leaders that have been issuing belligerent statements and walking them back. They keep using the term "war" when referring to their actions against Russia.
>What are some coping skills you use or can recommend to tackle or just mitigate the impending doom that's hanging over our heads?
Mindful meditation seems to be the best. Look up a guided meditation by ajahn brahm.
>I've noticed I'm becoming more scared, demotivated and depressed as the Ukraine conflict marches on and irrational people make nuclear threats.
If the sanctions dont work we are not post-war as the human species.
Fear of NATO is pointless. It's purely defensive. Russia only fears NATO because they had plans to invade. NATO keeps the peace. Being opposed to NATO is being opposed to peace. USA war exhaustion is super high, it's everyone else's turn who wants to invade. Russia took this opportunity.
Now for the topic at hand. The Russian people aren't strong like various Arabic folks. Putin will stay in power and continue his invasions. There will be more, not hard to predict this.
Eventually Russian military will come along and shoot at the wrong thing. Someone who couldn't read a map drove into nato territory and shot at something they shouldn't have... or a bvr missile tracks poorly and downs someone outside the theatre of war. Russians have already 'misfired' on Turkish boats.
Sanctions need to work before that inevitability. When that inevitability does occur, the Russians have been clear that they will use nuclear weapons.
There are alternative scenarios but things like China having been sideswiped by Russia and used as a shield for an invasion probably isn't leaving a good taste in their mouth. They probably only knew about the new republics and Russia was going to recognize. China could turn around and put a stop to the war. I just don't see it happening.
The coping skill is simple and works with everything: "just don't think about it / just think about something else".
Concerning the nuclear treat, there is one country that has used nuclear bombing, spreading nuclear bombs around the world expanding nearer of countries it is hostile to, and which has started many wars.
Citizen of this country must vote better, you are free to partake in political activism for a party which you think is more able to keep world stability.
As a citizen of ex-USSR state that where US has „expanded“ to... We're damn happy to have US presence. Give more nukes so we can stay safe from Russia. We don't want to be it's „rightful interest territory“.
If you want to „keep world stability“ by giving up millions of people to predatory regimes... There's a Russian ship to follow.
There are two wars: the physical war in the Ukraine, and the propaganda war being waged globally through media. you cannot trust any media about the war, it is attempting to fan a flame.
If you are like most people, you cannot influence events. Like most people, discussing the situation is simply exchanging propaganda, because we have no real information.
As the majority are productivity halted by these events we have no control, take advantage of the low activity in others to get things done. May as well, because everyone else is wasting their time.
While the party in power may be tempted to start another war for their military industrial complex pals, luckily they are wildly unpopular and have a election coming up soon so they probably won't.
But the nuclear attacks don’t scare me at this point. Best coping mechanism: stop lying to yourself that you must stay informed. Block your favorite news sites and focus on a project instead. Unless you want to get on a plane and go over there to fight (which the Ukrainian MOD has made an option for anyone who wants to [1]), what is your being informed actually doing for anyone at this point? If it is detrimental to your mental health trust me you should turn off the news and take care of yourself. Again, as someone whose home town is currently being shelled I think you should do that. Go create something useful in the world instead. That’s the right answer.
[1] https://kyivindependent.com/national/who-can-and-cant-join-u...