This is the best comment in all. HN folks don't understand the purpose of this article. You think Druckenmiller is so bearish? for the next 30 yrs? Not a chance. He must have a huge short position on the S&P500, and he likes you to sell your stocks so he could cover at a lower level.
Nah. Druck isn't one of those types. Bill Ackman is.
Druck is just known to change his opinion when the facts change or he comes to a new conclusion. There's some anecdote about him completely flipping on a position when going in and out on an elevator ride that I can't quite remember.
By the way, sideways means that the stock market is going nowhere long or short. IMO, currencies and commodities are a far better place to speculate.
While you may know the guy better, notice this Druck comment comes at a time when the long term buy-and-hold thinking is at its weakest point. A slightly respectable guru saying this sort of things is enough to make some people sell.
Druck was short the S&P jan-march and covered, he was looking for a second entry if it was given. His position isn't a secret.
Also, forget him saying it. He says a lot of things at a lot of different times. The real people to question are the ones making his headline known. CNBC/MarketWatch/Cramer et all are the biggest shills for banks. If you remember, they were all pushing Dalio's cash is trash line--which he has been saying since about 2018--HARD at the peak.
I heard this so many times. These goddamn CEOs are so myopic; all they care is next quarter's earnings. After the fall of every megacap, tech or otherwise (recently GE), someone always blames them for short sightedness. Is that really? Well, many CEOs of many huge corporations just plan for the next quarter, and they seem to be doing just fine.
The average large corporation is typically in a stable/stagnant industry that is nowhere near as competitive as chips, where the stakes are 100x higher.
They get by being the largest kid on the block and few young companies chomping at the bit, and a series of B/C-tier competitors even dumber and poorly run that they can't even do the next quarter effectively.
Countless mega-corps are just floating by with the ebbs and flows of a market, burning off some early moment of success. Staying at the top longer than a decade or two (usually the timeframe where other market entrants take notice of your weakness) is the real test.
Otherwise just being a decent manager/leader that keeps the existing established business model chugging along and hiring slightly above average executives to put out fires is good enough.
Well not all CEOs are so myopic; Andy Grove of Intel was not, for example.
Whether or not a next-quarter focus works, probably depends on the industry. In semiconductors, especially high-performance semiconductors, the R&D on manufacturing this year determines whether the design several years from now is able to be competitive, so there is a need to be more forward looking.
When a product originates from China, it must be full of spyware. Let's don't even question whether that's true or even reasonable. Then imagine one day, China's scientists invented a new semiconductor, a new material to make chip, or a new technological product that's order of magnitude better than everything out there.
My question: are you going to avoid it like the plague; don't buy anything made of it, which may be in a lot of the things you touch. Btw, that's not very far-fetched, judging from the number of breakthrough research coming out of that country.
