For those who don't know, Druckenmiller is also very well known for changing his mind the minute facts change which is one of the hallmarks of good trading.
Very true. Plus this is nonsense. Interest rates are still far too low. There is wayyyyy too much money floating around in the system and global growth has slowed. That money will be chasing returns wherever they can find them and that has been the market and now real estate. Both of these will be net up over the next 10 years. It will be choppy for a few years as inflation is battled and interest rates rise a little bit more.
Inflation adjusted won't that look rather flat or negative? Where are these real returns going to be coming from? Hot stocks haven't been paying appropriate dividends for the last two decades.
I wonder how much the end Moore's law is a part of this current slowdown. It would make sense to me that its impact would lag a while, and would eventually catch up.
I don't know if it's moores law. except for servers, CPUs are mostly running near idle.
My intuition would say tech saturation would make more of a difference. That is, worldwide pretty much everyone have now has adopted a computer and all businesses have automated the low hanging fruit.
There are probably a lot of companies that could see huge automation benefits but can’t a due to inefficient corporate structure. They might take decades to die though
Moore’s law ending? I’d say declining birth rates is at least an order of magnitude more important. If the future has half as many consumers and producers, scientists and engineers, entrepreneurs, etc. what do you think GDP and the stock market will look like?
This is the best comment in all. HN folks don't understand the purpose of this article. You think Druckenmiller is so bearish? for the next 30 yrs? Not a chance. He must have a huge short position on the S&P500, and he likes you to sell your stocks so he could cover at a lower level.
Nah. Druck isn't one of those types. Bill Ackman is.
Druck is just known to change his opinion when the facts change or he comes to a new conclusion. There's some anecdote about him completely flipping on a position when going in and out on an elevator ride that I can't quite remember.
By the way, sideways means that the stock market is going nowhere long or short. IMO, currencies and commodities are a far better place to speculate.
While you may know the guy better, notice this Druck comment comes at a time when the long term buy-and-hold thinking is at its weakest point. A slightly respectable guru saying this sort of things is enough to make some people sell.
Druck was short the S&P jan-march and covered, he was looking for a second entry if it was given. His position isn't a secret.
Also, forget him saying it. He says a lot of things at a lot of different times. The real people to question are the ones making his headline known. CNBC/MarketWatch/Cramer et all are the biggest shills for banks. If you remember, they were all pushing Dalio's cash is trash line--which he has been saying since about 2018--HARD at the peak.
