There are some interesting comparisons between (what the economist Tyler Cowen refers to as) The Great Stagnation Of 1973-now, and The Really Great Stagnation of 1650-1740. Restraining the comparison to the English speaking nations, we can say:
1.) Both episodes begin with a cultural revolution that has no precedent (the arrival of militant Protestantism versus the arrival of the counter-culture of the 1960s)
2.) Both episodes witness a fundamental reassessment of what property is. (The closing of the commons giving rise to the concept of private property, versus the modern rise of intellectual property).
3.) Both episodes see important intellectual innovation, against a background of economic stagnation (Robert Hooke, Isaac Newton, Boyle, versus the rise of modern genetics --- although, arguably, this is an area where the analogy breaks down, as nothing of the last 50 years seems to match the importance of Newton or Boyle).
4.) Both episodes see a civil rights struggle that fundamentally changes the relationship between the citizen and the state (freedom of religion being the big struggle of the 1600s, freedom from racial discrimination being the struggle of recent times).
The Really Great Stagnation ended with the Industrial Revolution. The current stagnation ends with...
> arguably, this is an area where the analogy breaks down, as nothing of the last 50 years seems to match the importance of Newton or Boyle
I'd argue that the ongoing computer revolution matches that. While, true, our knowledge of proper science hasn't advanced compared to what Newton, Boyle, et al. have done, our advances in engineering have more than made up for it. Personal computers, the Internet, and smartphones have changed the world like nothing else.
> freedom from racial discrimination being the struggle of recent times
For that matter, let's also add the ongoing culture wars, including the de-emphasizing of religion in everyday life and the struggle for LGBT rights.
It probably ends with commercial fusion power or a similar technological gain on power generation. Cheap power makes most of the stuff we use or make much cheaper. Which leads to a major change in the living standard and expectations (imagine access to electricity being seen as a right since power generation would outstrip demand if something like fusion became viable).
it correlates with climate change nicely - the 1650 was the time of the Little Ice Age which significantly affected the production of food and everything else. The fusion power (or similar) would allow to mitigate and finally overcome the current climate change catastrophe (the fact that it moves slowly doesn't make it less serious - just like a huge container ship - the mass/inertia makes for the speed in collision :) which is starting to cause real economic damage (cattle growing in Texas, agriculture in CA for example). And it is just the beginning...
I believe that with internet and open source idea, most human needed knowledge is free. What you need is cheap energy to realize what you want from it.
It might happen if the current trend for digital and virtual prove detrimental enough. Just like newspapers not dying, or vinyl discs. Some properties stand the test of time, and I'm sure that nature complexity and our deep link to it will be valued again in the future. Right now people are still worshiping technology, until they realize it's a lot of commercial crap wrapped around a tiny beautiful core of knowledge.
1.) Both episodes begin with a cultural revolution that has no precedent (the arrival of militant Protestantism versus the arrival of the counter-culture of the 1960s)
2.) Both episodes witness a fundamental reassessment of what property is. (The closing of the commons giving rise to the concept of private property, versus the modern rise of intellectual property).
3.) Both episodes see important intellectual innovation, against a background of economic stagnation (Robert Hooke, Isaac Newton, Boyle, versus the rise of modern genetics --- although, arguably, this is an area where the analogy breaks down, as nothing of the last 50 years seems to match the importance of Newton or Boyle).
4.) Both episodes see a civil rights struggle that fundamentally changes the relationship between the citizen and the state (freedom of religion being the big struggle of the 1600s, freedom from racial discrimination being the struggle of recent times).
The Really Great Stagnation ended with the Industrial Revolution. The current stagnation ends with...