>My impression from this exercise is that it will be hard to go above 80%, but I suspect improvements might be possible up to range of about 85-90%, depending on how wrong I am about the lack of training data. (2015 update: Obviously this prediction was way off, with state of the art now in 95%, as seen in this Kaggle competition leaderboard. I'm impressed!)
Thats more impressive than it sounds because each percentage point is exponentially harder than the last. Getting 95% accuracy is not 5% harder than getting 90%.
Just recently machine vision starting beating humans on imagenet. Imagenet is 1,000 classes, high resolution images, taken randomly from the internet. No one would have predicted that few years ago.
Sometimes a notable researcher like Hinton says that something like transcription of images into sentences might be possible in five years, only for researchers to demonstrate it in five months.
I remember reading something about early engineers working on computers were extremely skeptical of the rate of computer advancement. They were so focused on narrow technical problems they didnt see the big picture.
>My impression from this exercise is that it will be hard to go above 80%, but I suspect improvements might be possible up to range of about 85-90%, depending on how wrong I am about the lack of training data. (2015 update: Obviously this prediction was way off, with state of the art now in 95%, as seen in this Kaggle competition leaderboard. I'm impressed!)
Thats more impressive than it sounds because each percentage point is exponentially harder than the last. Getting 95% accuracy is not 5% harder than getting 90%.
Just recently machine vision starting beating humans on imagenet. Imagenet is 1,000 classes, high resolution images, taken randomly from the internet. No one would have predicted that few years ago.
Sometimes a notable researcher like Hinton says that something like transcription of images into sentences might be possible in five years, only for researchers to demonstrate it in five months.
I remember reading something about early engineers working on computers were extremely skeptical of the rate of computer advancement. They were so focused on narrow technical problems they didnt see the big picture.