> You honestly believe that any one of those companies, none of which has been around for more than ten years, could reach a market cap of $200B within 5 years?

That's not the bet. The bet is that they will, in aggregate be worth $200B.

    "Proposition 1: On January 1st, 2020, these companies 
    will be worth at least $200B in aggregate."

Edit: Can't read. The parent is in response to the grandparent, not the bet.

He was referencing my statement above, not the bet.

Thanks for the correction. Edited to reflect that.

Yes, seriously. Which company is anyone's guess, and some are more likely than others, but it's conceivable a single company from that list could achieve a $200B valuation on a 5 year time scale.

My point isn't really to take anything away from those companies. They're all very impressive. It's more that I am surprised that people don't seem to think that $200B is an incredibly large amount of money. It's more than three Ford Motor Company's. Or $80 billion more valuable than Cisco Systems, in many ways the backbone of the entire internet. It's just an incredibly large valuation to achieve for any company let alone in a five-year time frame.

Major difference between public market valuations vs private market valuations.

Particularly, liquidation preference & anti dilution.

There is no such thing as a $200B private market valuation. For a company to have that large of a valuation, it pretty much has to be a publicly-traded company by definition.

If the argument is that somebody bought 0.001% of the company for $2,000,000, therefore 100% of the company is worth $200B, that's just a bridge too far.