Ugh. So annoying to see journalists ignore the obvious in their obsession with writing a "balanced" story.
So yes, Apple's iPhone is like Microsoft's Windows. Both are hugely successful products that accounted for the bulk of their creator's profits. Microsoft was unwilling to threaten the enormous revenue it gets from Windows, and now that the focus of innovation has shifted away from PCs it has lost its dominance.
Will Apple make the same mistake? No. Its first attempt to one-up the iPhone was the iPad. For a while, it looked like it might succeed: iPad sales took off even faster than iPhone sales had. But then they plateaued, while the iPhone kept growing. Nice try, but no dice. The iPad is nice little business, but it won't eclipse the iPhone.
Next try: the Apple Watch. It's not out yet, so we don't know what will happen. But it's clear that this is Apple's next big move. This is not a hobby. They'll be putting all their weight behind the product line. It might flop or it might be another (multi-billion dollar) side business that lags behind the wild profitability of the iPhone.
Mr. Stewart ends with a quote from analyst Robert Cihra: “The question investors have is, what’s the next iPhone? There’s no obvious answer. It’s almost impossible to think of anything that will create a $140 billion business out of nothing.”
Well, maybe investors can't think of anything, but it's clear that Apple thinks the next iPhone will be wearables. And they sure as hell aren't killing promising products for fear of cannibalizing iPhone sales.
It's also possible that Apple is doing what they say they're doing: create great products. Maybe the next iPhone is their 'next iPhone'. Maybe the Apple Watch will eclipse the iPhone. Maybe it will be just another lucrative product.
My impression from Apple's behavior is that they're focused on creating products that bring 'computers' into the lives of consumers in ways that are desirable by consumers, regardless of form or specific functionality. They had a smash hit with the iPhone, but they're probably just as happy with the iPad and, to a lesser degree, with Apple TV.
What interests me most is how they will react to a potential (and likely) breakthrough in VR, or AR. Apple doesn't seem to put much focus on that.
So yes, Apple's iPhone is like Microsoft's Windows. Both are hugely successful products that accounted for the bulk of their creator's profits. Microsoft was unwilling to threaten the enormous revenue it gets from Windows, and now that the focus of innovation has shifted away from PCs it has lost its dominance.
Will Apple make the same mistake? No. Its first attempt to one-up the iPhone was the iPad. For a while, it looked like it might succeed: iPad sales took off even faster than iPhone sales had. But then they plateaued, while the iPhone kept growing. Nice try, but no dice. The iPad is nice little business, but it won't eclipse the iPhone.
Next try: the Apple Watch. It's not out yet, so we don't know what will happen. But it's clear that this is Apple's next big move. This is not a hobby. They'll be putting all their weight behind the product line. It might flop or it might be another (multi-billion dollar) side business that lags behind the wild profitability of the iPhone.
Mr. Stewart ends with a quote from analyst Robert Cihra: “The question investors have is, what’s the next iPhone? There’s no obvious answer. It’s almost impossible to think of anything that will create a $140 billion business out of nothing.”
Well, maybe investors can't think of anything, but it's clear that Apple thinks the next iPhone will be wearables. And they sure as hell aren't killing promising products for fear of cannibalizing iPhone sales.