It's all about expected values and your subjective preferences over those. All of this is determined under circumstances of uncertainty.
You can make a reasonable estimate of the current value of your company, and a reasonable estimate of how likely you are to be offered that value.
You can also make a reasonable estimate of the future value of your company at time X, and a reasonable estimate of how likely you are to be offered that amount at time X.
There are large margins for error in these calculations. You can determine, though, the net present value * probability of the current and future options. The goal of this exercise should be to determine not the exact values (because your error margins are too big to have large confidence in the resulting numbers), but to determine which option you like more.
It's ultimately a subjective decision, but if you are not confident that you will get enough money to definitely want to sell now, then wait.
The original article and the one I linked both put the advice in more absolute terms, but it is obvious that the decision to sell or wait is a difficult one. The goal of both articles is not to answer the question, but to help you understand first that it is not a casual decision, and provide details which may help you decide whether you want that process now.
You can make a reasonable estimate of the current value of your company, and a reasonable estimate of how likely you are to be offered that value.
You can also make a reasonable estimate of the future value of your company at time X, and a reasonable estimate of how likely you are to be offered that amount at time X.
There are large margins for error in these calculations. You can determine, though, the net present value * probability of the current and future options. The goal of this exercise should be to determine not the exact values (because your error margins are too big to have large confidence in the resulting numbers), but to determine which option you like more.
It's ultimately a subjective decision, but if you are not confident that you will get enough money to definitely want to sell now, then wait.
The original article and the one I linked both put the advice in more absolute terms, but it is obvious that the decision to sell or wait is a difficult one. The goal of both articles is not to answer the question, but to help you understand first that it is not a casual decision, and provide details which may help you decide whether you want that process now.