If anyone knows a way to take the over on this, please let me know. Even if the claim is that DVD rental revenue will be streaming revenue just for Netflix, and it's not a general industry claim, I'm still taking the over. I can buy claims that actual streams may be higher, because the high utilization early adopters will stream more. But revenue? Overall userbase? General market? I laugh.
No, seriously, I'd like to do a two-year LEAP/long bet on this.
Why? It only took ~4 years for DVD to obliterate VHS, and even less time for DVD sales to exceed those for VHS [1]. Hastings doesn't say if the replacement for DVD will be BluRay or streaming, but I think rapid consumer uptake of new delivery technologies is a reasonable prediction to make.
If the studios are smart, it's Blu-ray. If they're not, it's streaming. BUT I'm willing to take the long bet and say DVDs last longer than two years, regardless.
If you are willing to take the other side, let's make a bet.
Reading comprehension for the win -
"DVD will only be the "primary delivery format" at the company for the next two years, though he did add that it would stick around in some fashion for the next decade or two."
No, seriously, I'd like to do a two-year LEAP/long bet on this.