Why do you feel we as a community or any group of people have to give Notch some "chances" or determine whether Minecraft was a lucky accident or not? I'm sure most people, including Notch, understand that Minecraft success (as all games) have a certain element of luck..
It's the programmer who cried wolf, in my opinion. If any non-famous person did this, it might get a few points and comments, but because it's Notch, it gets 119 points and 61 comments (as of right now). At what point does he use up all of his goodwill and turn into John Romero?