Look, as I stated twice before, I don't claim to prove anything. If you chose to believe I am misrepresenting my experiences (motive?) that's fine. I understand. I'm just relating the results of a lot... and I do mean a lot (as in hundreds if not thousands of hours) of observation in hope it saves someone some money from the table bumping scam. I have seen drunks cleaned out with it more than a few times. But you can be "right" if it makes you feel good.
Observation is observation and it makes one a bit of an expert.
Was it "confirmation bias" and "delusion" when I saw a practicing dealer place the ball on the green zero 4 times in a row? Was it "imagination" when I took advantage of that and won a bunch of money? I have a lot of stories like this.
You weren't there. You don't know. You don't have to believe me. If you want to take the time... go observe for yourself.
> Was it "confirmation bias" and "delusion" when I saw a practicing dealer place the ball on the green zero 4 times in a row? Was it "imagination" when I took advantage of that and won a bunch of money?
Absolutely. That is a classic case of observational or confirmation bias, with a sample size of one, it shows absolutely nothing. At odds of 36-1 there will be, randomly, one time in 36 when you make an incorrect hypothesis about the way a roulette ball is going to land, and yet by chance it happens the way you 'predicted'. To confirm your hypothesis with any degree of certainty, one would need to have multiple situations of this kind happen repeatedly. You aren't doing that.
I have seen dealers with this skill many times. And I took advantage of it many times. Read my posts before talking about "sample size". I simply mention __this__ event because it is one of the more skilled dealers I ever encountered.
So... a one in 36 chance. Actually, I'll give you one in 18 as there are two sets of green zeros... 0 and 00.
So what is the chance of this happening 4 times in a row?
1/18 cubed = .000000952 chance of occurring. Probably not confirmation bias. Probably not something one is likely to EVER encounter. (Never mind that I encountered similar many times). If you read the post, I watched her practice doing this. No one was playing at the moment. Then she did it again and I burned her for a lot of money. Read my posts if you care. Or, believe whatever you wish. Roulette is not always random. And if you spent the time I have you would know this.
> 1/184 = .000000952 chance of that occurring. Probably not confirmation bias.
On any one set of four throws. Even if you used the smaller probability of the exact result (rather than grouping the two sets of green zeroes), its exactly the same as the chance of any other result of the four throws.
Sure, any four (or 4 groups of two in this case) has the same chance of appearing. But... these were a "special" 4 under special circumstances. Coincidence? No way!! I was watching her practice! Context is a big part here. I would love to have a big data set of wheel rolls from all over broken into individual dealers and wheels. Collected without knowledge of the dealer of course (which would likely change that which is observed).
To make an assertion that a game of roulette in a licensed casino is not random is in the realm of moon landing conspiracy.
PS: I also think it's rather sad and transparent that you created a new shill account to reply to me.