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Although Asimov was actually trying to predict the future here, SF writers generally aren't in the prediction business—they are in the speculation business[1] (many modern SF writers claim the 'S' in SF would be for 'Speculation' rather than 'Science').

I find it unfair when SF writers are held to account for their more fanciful speculations—they should be free to ask "What if?" without later ridicule.

[1] In reality, they are in the entertainment business and should therefore be allowed to entertain without later ridicule, too.




Related: Ursula Le Guin's Introduction in The Left Hand of Darkness: http://theliterarylink.com/leguinintro.html

This said, I think Asimov was actually trying to guess about the future; it's an essay, not an SF work.




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