> It's interesting how social and human issues overrule technology in most cases though.
Exactly, the same is painfully true for our presence in space. He could have easily been right about the moon base, we just chose to not "do" space.
The big takeaway from this for me is that it's possible for a tech-minded person to make good predictions about the speed of technological advancement in general, it just gets thwarted by the uncertainty of society's interest in these things.
I think this is why sci-fi authors seem to predict future better than futurists - to write good science fiction you need not only to have imagination and know the science well, but you also need to grok people and society, if you want your book to be believable for audience.
Exactly, the same is painfully true for our presence in space. He could have easily been right about the moon base, we just chose to not "do" space.
The big takeaway from this for me is that it's possible for a tech-minded person to make good predictions about the speed of technological advancement in general, it just gets thwarted by the uncertainty of society's interest in these things.