I think a lot of the rise in tuition has to do with jobs. Society tells people they need to earn a living through a job. This makes people desperate for jobs to the extent that they'll generally pay whatever it takes to maximize their job prospects.
So, basically you have a situation in which demand for the best possible education is inelastic. Pretty much everybody wants it and is willing to pay anything they can for it. If you offer students more money to spend on their education, they naturally will.
That means that schools are in the very powerful position of deciding who deserves the privilege of an education. But, at the same time, they're competing with each other for the best students. If money is no object for the students, you can bet that schools will spend as much as possible to get the "best" students. Fancy buildings aren't just there to impress donors. They're there to impress prospective students.
I think MOOCs will help and basic income will help. High tuition isn't a problem if you don't need to go to school. You don't need to go to school if you don't need a job and you can educate yourself elsewhere.
MOOCs will only work if they garner a reputation of providing education relevant to employers or even lead to jobs. Also important are college connections to businesses to facilitate internships. Internships can really make or break you in same cases.
I know most MOOC courses are up to par. I've taken several and the introductory Python programming course at Udacity was more difficult than any of the classes from my arts degree. Right now, a certificate from a MOOC is about as worthless as a certificate I make for myself. I could take those Python skills and do useful things that would make me stand out among other candidates, but that requires a willing ear. Rare exceptions are employers who are actually aware of MOOCs and also favorable to the idea.
I could sell the idea of a MOOC in an interview, even show what I've learned, but getting the interview with MOOC credentials seems very suspect unless you find that aware employer. The idea of MOOCs (free education that leads to employment) threatens colleges, but I don't think the existing MOOCs are currently having an impact on price. When they will begin to have an impact is anyone's guess.
When you say "MOOCs will only work if..." it really depends what you mean by "work." Does it make sense for the goal of education to be jobs?
Like you say, high quality MOOCs can really help people learn. The reason I mentioned MOOCs alongside basic income is because basic income removes people's dependence on jobs.
So, basically you have a situation in which demand for the best possible education is inelastic. Pretty much everybody wants it and is willing to pay anything they can for it. If you offer students more money to spend on their education, they naturally will.
That means that schools are in the very powerful position of deciding who deserves the privilege of an education. But, at the same time, they're competing with each other for the best students. If money is no object for the students, you can bet that schools will spend as much as possible to get the "best" students. Fancy buildings aren't just there to impress donors. They're there to impress prospective students.
I think MOOCs will help and basic income will help. High tuition isn't a problem if you don't need to go to school. You don't need to go to school if you don't need a job and you can educate yourself elsewhere.