The EMH isn't falsified by people engaging in widespread cheating, and it isn't falsified by big market reversals driven by public psychology. It could only be falsified by the market's inability to accurately set a price on average, across all equities, perpetually.
Apparently it can't be falsified or proved before the heat death of the universe, so not a very interesting or credible hypothesis.
This claim is obviously contradicted by the fact that people are willing to use equities to raise business capital.
jjarmusch, who is inexplicably hellbanned below as I post this, makes the point that people willing to use equities to raise money do not depend on an efficient market, in fact they profit from a broken or delusional market. So no, people using a market does not prove it is maximally efficient or even close.
The EMH isn't falsified by cheating.
No, it's falsified by comparisons with real markets which it attempts to model (which include cheating, stupidity and greed as well as occasional rational valuations).
> Apparently it can't be falsified or proved before the heat death of the universe, so not a very interesting or credible hypothesis.
If that were true, if unprovable hypotheses had no practical value, psychology would collapse. Wait ... hold on ... nope, psychology isn't collapsing.
> So no, people using a market does not prove it is maximally efficient or even close.
You're missing the point that money flows to the most efficient of alternative capital raising methods -- which, if you think about it, also stands as evidence for the EMH. Given the freedom of businesses to choose any method to raise operating capital, and given that they prefer equities, this shows that the equities market is more efficient than existing alternatives.
If the equities market were less efficient than brand X, businesses would raise capital using brand X. How is that difficult to understand?
> No, it's falsified by comparisons with real markets which it attempts to model ...
You are apparently unaware that the EMH isn't compared to real markets, it's the other way around. And if businesses believed that equities were inefficient compared to anything else, they would change methods.
Your faith in EMH is looking religious. You're making assertion after assertion without evidence or sound reason. Because businesses choose to raise capital in equity markets does not show that EMH is true. It just shows that the markets are more efficient than the alternatives, it does not mean the market is efficient.
Apparently it can't be falsified or proved before the heat death of the universe, so not a very interesting or credible hypothesis.
This claim is obviously contradicted by the fact that people are willing to use equities to raise business capital.
jjarmusch, who is inexplicably hellbanned below as I post this, makes the point that people willing to use equities to raise money do not depend on an efficient market, in fact they profit from a broken or delusional market. So no, people using a market does not prove it is maximally efficient or even close.
The EMH isn't falsified by cheating.
No, it's falsified by comparisons with real markets which it attempts to model (which include cheating, stupidity and greed as well as occasional rational valuations).