You're missing the point. What is the probability that someone flipping a fair coin will flip 20 heads in an unbroken sequence? The answer is 2^-20 = about 9.5 * 10^-7.
Next question. How many people need to be flipping coins for one of them to have a better than even chance to flip 20 heads in a row? Answer: about 3/4 million.
Next question. How many investors are there in the world? Answer: many more than 3/4 million.
Next question. If someone among millions of investors makes 20 successful market picks in an unbroken sequence, what's the probability that he will attribute that outcome to blind chance, and what is the probability he will start selling a book titled "Secrets of the Winners" on late night TV?
My point? When confronted by an unexplained occurrence, it's wise to consider the possibility that it's a random outcome. This is called the "null hypothesis" and it's the first possibility a scientist considers.
Next question. How many people need to be flipping coins for one of them to have a better than even chance to flip 20 heads in a row? Answer: about 3/4 million.
Next question. How many investors are there in the world? Answer: many more than 3/4 million.
Next question. If someone among millions of investors makes 20 successful market picks in an unbroken sequence, what's the probability that he will attribute that outcome to blind chance, and what is the probability he will start selling a book titled "Secrets of the Winners" on late night TV?
My point? When confronted by an unexplained occurrence, it's wise to consider the possibility that it's a random outcome. This is called the "null hypothesis" and it's the first possibility a scientist considers.