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You are asking which is more likely. I.e. is the probability of compromise higher than 50% ? I'd say the the probability is less than that. But I think even risks with lower than half probability are worth worrying about.



You're asking "what is the probability that this laptop was compromised by the NSA?". Sure, that is low.

But there's a different direction to look at it from: What is the probability that someone's laptop was compromised by the NSA?

This is approaching 100%: we know that they do this.




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