A counter example might just be an outlier, I don't think he was arguing in absolutes.
<Super-Succeess> is typically the outlier. You could have 100 companies with these traits, and 98 of them could fail. Its not clear with that type of failure rate you can really differentiate meaningful information, because the overlap of explanatory "data points" is just too noisy.
Super success is typically more of a black-swan. This is essay is less relevant in that endeavor. But it probably is not bad at all if it was merely aiming for "nice/er places to work". Or, "avoiding a bad bet" type of argument. That makes it closer to describing a "white swan", which again is not altogether useless. Its just not really what the title is proclaiming. Not that Sam would be unique in that regards, thoug. I think its fair to cut him some slack on that.
Of course, it begs the question: Do "super successful people" tend to eggagerate? Which is even itself an enlightening question. It seems many people believe in "fake it to you make it". But on the otherhand, many people who have "made it" tend to revert to understatement. And many more become successful merely with true confidence. So again...who knows.
<Super-Succeess> is typically the outlier. You could have 100 companies with these traits, and 98 of them could fail. Its not clear with that type of failure rate you can really differentiate meaningful information, because the overlap of explanatory "data points" is just too noisy.
Super success is typically more of a black-swan. This is essay is less relevant in that endeavor. But it probably is not bad at all if it was merely aiming for "nice/er places to work". Or, "avoiding a bad bet" type of argument. That makes it closer to describing a "white swan", which again is not altogether useless. Its just not really what the title is proclaiming. Not that Sam would be unique in that regards, thoug. I think its fair to cut him some slack on that.
Of course, it begs the question: Do "super successful people" tend to eggagerate? Which is even itself an enlightening question. It seems many people believe in "fake it to you make it". But on the otherhand, many people who have "made it" tend to revert to understatement. And many more become successful merely with true confidence. So again...who knows.