Here are my predictions for the next couple of years (with a bit of wishful thinking thrown in):
1 - There'll be a new Google for cryptos. It'll come onto the scene at full-speed like Google did, not needing user requests, not caring about stepping on anyone's toes. It'll know what needs to be done. It'll have a lot of creativity and a large Labs divisions. It could even introduce its own blockchain at some point, and may move into equity coins or alternate use coins. It'll probably be based outside the US, or else have special government tie-ins if in the US as with Google. It'd likely require a highly libertarian government to work well if in the US.
2 - Bitcoin will retain its first-mover advantage but people will be aware of alternatives and be cool to work with a few.
3 - A new set of startups will arise that are unbiased as to what coins they work with... just like with the newer exchanges. "Bitcoin-only" as a syndrome or as a consequence will be and old mindset. Bitstamp, Blockchain wallet, Mt Gox - the mainstays of the current system will adapt or fade from domination. It will be a demonstration of strategic agility and scalability.
4 - More alliances between exchanges/wallets/ecommerce providers/banks. More conferences.
5 - Certain countries will attract more cryptocurrency innovation than others depending on their policies. They will accept bitcoins and altcoins for tax payments, and use them for spending on government projects. They may create their own blockchain, and give tax incentives and tender advantages to businesses using the government chain.
6 - More businesses will want move into cryptocurrencies, but it'll take startups to offer the software and solutions that will enable them to do it.
7 - Shopping carts will start offering bitcoin and cryptocurrency payment options (as modules) which tie-in with the larger global exchanges or smaller local ones (or they'll run their own exchanges) that autosell coins as they are received by shoppers. An advanced wallet may move into this space as well: a wallet that is shared by buyer and seller means no waiting for confirmations.
8 - The price of bitcoin will determine to a large extent the price of other coins, but slowly coins will decouple.
9 - The price of coins will go up, but be contingent on events that force or scare people to move into cryptocurrency.
10 - Logistical loopholes will be found in China to purchase cryptocurrencies. More Chinese will simply obtain them by trading with people outside of China. Pressure may come from Chinese sellers on ebay, and ebay may take large fees for enabling it.
11 - Many new metrics beyond market cap will help evaluate coins to consumers and businesses. One's holdings may move between coins automatically into the most stable or rising one - or alerts will be given to prompt for this.
12 - Proof-of-stake coins will fine-tune themselves and the dev teams of older coins will offer straight conversions into 2.0 versions of their coins - an upgrade, but not necessarily a compulsory one, ideally backwards compatible. Also blockchain pruning will occur.
13 - P2P pools and other improvements will become more important to 1.0 coins, and there'll be pressure for an "x86 architecture for life, but with improvements" type mindset from many coin holders and their dev teams.
14 - New point-of-sale options for physical stores involving chip or swipe cards based on commodity hardware as people want to spend their coins in everyday life -- and others will see them doing it.
15 - More people resisting cryptocurrency or ignorant of it will be forced to use it, just like email, web, mobile phones. The sign of true viral software.
16 - AMD, Intel and other large chip-makers will move into this space with tailored products, or be looking for acquisitions in it. Dedicated appliances could become a reality as well as systems built for the cryptocurrency space - in all price brackets. Similar to Google's Search Appliance.
15 - Old financial institutions will lower their fees, or improve their services as enabled by present cryptocurrency technology to be implemented. Consulting firms will seek solutions in this space to sell to banks and financial institutions.
16 - There'll be a bitcoin-related IPO. One of many to come. New asset classes and mutual funds will arise that expose investors through conventional means to cryptocurrency based instruments.
17 - A meme like Dogecoin can spread to zombies. For better or worse, look out. But, other countries will create their own language coins equivalent to Doge, perhaps by governments, which they will premine for themselves. And governments will want software to do that. So too with corporations. 2014/15 - the year of the premined, forced alternative.
1 - There'll be a new Google for cryptos. It'll come onto the scene at full-speed like Google did, not needing user requests, not caring about stepping on anyone's toes. It'll know what needs to be done. It'll have a lot of creativity and a large Labs divisions. It could even introduce its own blockchain at some point, and may move into equity coins or alternate use coins. It'll probably be based outside the US, or else have special government tie-ins if in the US as with Google. It'd likely require a highly libertarian government to work well if in the US.
2 - Bitcoin will retain its first-mover advantage but people will be aware of alternatives and be cool to work with a few.
3 - A new set of startups will arise that are unbiased as to what coins they work with... just like with the newer exchanges. "Bitcoin-only" as a syndrome or as a consequence will be and old mindset. Bitstamp, Blockchain wallet, Mt Gox - the mainstays of the current system will adapt or fade from domination. It will be a demonstration of strategic agility and scalability.
4 - More alliances between exchanges/wallets/ecommerce providers/banks. More conferences.
5 - Certain countries will attract more cryptocurrency innovation than others depending on their policies. They will accept bitcoins and altcoins for tax payments, and use them for spending on government projects. They may create their own blockchain, and give tax incentives and tender advantages to businesses using the government chain.
6 - More businesses will want move into cryptocurrencies, but it'll take startups to offer the software and solutions that will enable them to do it.
7 - Shopping carts will start offering bitcoin and cryptocurrency payment options (as modules) which tie-in with the larger global exchanges or smaller local ones (or they'll run their own exchanges) that autosell coins as they are received by shoppers. An advanced wallet may move into this space as well: a wallet that is shared by buyer and seller means no waiting for confirmations.
8 - The price of bitcoin will determine to a large extent the price of other coins, but slowly coins will decouple.
9 - The price of coins will go up, but be contingent on events that force or scare people to move into cryptocurrency.
10 - Logistical loopholes will be found in China to purchase cryptocurrencies. More Chinese will simply obtain them by trading with people outside of China. Pressure may come from Chinese sellers on ebay, and ebay may take large fees for enabling it.
11 - Many new metrics beyond market cap will help evaluate coins to consumers and businesses. One's holdings may move between coins automatically into the most stable or rising one - or alerts will be given to prompt for this.
12 - Proof-of-stake coins will fine-tune themselves and the dev teams of older coins will offer straight conversions into 2.0 versions of their coins - an upgrade, but not necessarily a compulsory one, ideally backwards compatible. Also blockchain pruning will occur.
13 - P2P pools and other improvements will become more important to 1.0 coins, and there'll be pressure for an "x86 architecture for life, but with improvements" type mindset from many coin holders and their dev teams.
14 - New point-of-sale options for physical stores involving chip or swipe cards based on commodity hardware as people want to spend their coins in everyday life -- and others will see them doing it.
15 - More people resisting cryptocurrency or ignorant of it will be forced to use it, just like email, web, mobile phones. The sign of true viral software.
16 - AMD, Intel and other large chip-makers will move into this space with tailored products, or be looking for acquisitions in it. Dedicated appliances could become a reality as well as systems built for the cryptocurrency space - in all price brackets. Similar to Google's Search Appliance.
15 - Old financial institutions will lower their fees, or improve their services as enabled by present cryptocurrency technology to be implemented. Consulting firms will seek solutions in this space to sell to banks and financial institutions.
16 - There'll be a bitcoin-related IPO. One of many to come. New asset classes and mutual funds will arise that expose investors through conventional means to cryptocurrency based instruments.
17 - A meme like Dogecoin can spread to zombies. For better or worse, look out. But, other countries will create their own language coins equivalent to Doge, perhaps by governments, which they will premine for themselves. And governments will want software to do that. So too with corporations. 2014/15 - the year of the premined, forced alternative.