Well, we're obviously unable to estimate the probabilities accurately, but from what I know of the subject 0.002% is exceedingly pessimistic. I am no expert, but do follow this stuff, and IMO the chances are actually pretty good. And the payoff, if successful, is basically infinity.
The Harris essay (on the Amcor site) you linked to, by the way, I have many problems with. It purports to take a scientific approach to estimating the probably of success and yet has many inexplicable red herrings that bring down the final total, for example a fanciful excursion into numerous world disaster scenarios which, while entertaining, are pretty tangential to the question at hand. Other "risks" he factors in, like the company going out of business or the storage becoming illegal in that country, are not related to the technology per se and would be handled by the suspendee's descendents or trustees - they are only reasonable if one assumes a complete lack of preparation for the execution of your wishes, and a complete lack of action by your living representatives if you had. They do not belong in the final estimate either. I would take his "optimistic" estimate and multiply it by three, or more.
The cost is somewhere around $250k. That's not insignificant but certainly not out of reach for many, especially in their old age. What else would you do with the money? Even if it's unsuccessful, at least you're capitalising companies doing research for the good of the species. And what's the alternative? Certain oblivion, rotting in the ground, with the money going to general revenue?
When the payoff is infinity it is rational to take any non-zero bet, and the entry price is not even that high. I'll be taking that bet. Don't know why you're so down on it really.
The Harris essay (on the Amcor site) you linked to, by the way, I have many problems with. It purports to take a scientific approach to estimating the probably of success and yet has many inexplicable red herrings that bring down the final total, for example a fanciful excursion into numerous world disaster scenarios which, while entertaining, are pretty tangential to the question at hand. Other "risks" he factors in, like the company going out of business or the storage becoming illegal in that country, are not related to the technology per se and would be handled by the suspendee's descendents or trustees - they are only reasonable if one assumes a complete lack of preparation for the execution of your wishes, and a complete lack of action by your living representatives if you had. They do not belong in the final estimate either. I would take his "optimistic" estimate and multiply it by three, or more.
The cost is somewhere around $250k. That's not insignificant but certainly not out of reach for many, especially in their old age. What else would you do with the money? Even if it's unsuccessful, at least you're capitalising companies doing research for the good of the species. And what's the alternative? Certain oblivion, rotting in the ground, with the money going to general revenue?
When the payoff is infinity it is rational to take any non-zero bet, and the entry price is not even that high. I'll be taking that bet. Don't know why you're so down on it really.