Don't forget about the coming of Cthulhu

Wanna bet?

Of course I'd bet. I'd bet all the money I have + my firstborn child + my future income for the next 30 years. Only someone without the faintest understanding of economics can think bitcoin will become USA/Europe's official currency.

There are just 2 problems with this bet:

1. There is no escrow I'd trust to hold my money for 5 years.

2. The bet is obviously ridiculous for you to take. If you really believe what you say, then your bitcoins will be worth billions in 5 years and the money you win from me won't matter. Hence in this bet there is only downside for you. Hence, either you're crazy if you take it or you're just talking big trying to manipulate the crowds. I'm betting on the latter.

First, it's you, not me who is talking big. I suggested (to another guy) fixed amounts to bet while you bet your unborn children.

Second, who said Bitcoin must get some official stamp of approval from any government? People will use Bitcoin wether governments want it or not. And government will have to milk bitcoin economy, not USD economy.

Third, Bitcoin is valuable precisely because there's "no escrow to trust money for 5 years". You can split your BTC private key in 10 parts via SSSS 6-of-10 and give to your trusted friends. They individually can't steal from you and if 6 of them are still around in 5 years, you get your money. Bitcoin makes some things possible which are not possible otherwise.

Forth, I'm serious about formal bet and confident in what I say. My identity is public and I publish all my thoughts on subject frequently and honestly here: http://blog.oleganza.com

If you are so certain that Bitcoin goes nowhere in 5 years, give me your conditions.

I'm cool with the bet even if it doesn't involve "official stamp of approval" from any government. You say USD/EUR will hyperinflate. We can probably agree that gold price is a good measure if something has hyperinflated. So, if a troy ounce of gold is worth less than $100K USD/EUR after 5 years, you pay me $10K and if it doesn't, I pay you 1 BTC (the terms you offered below). Escrow is John K from bitcointalk. Deal?

EDIT: fine, you don't want gold. Pick any commodity you fancy - grain, corn, rice, oil, copper, coffee...whatever. It rises 100 times in USD value, you win the bet. Just don't tell me nobody will want these either and we'll live just on bitcoins and fresh air :)

I bet gold at some point will go down massively too. Why hold gold somewhere in the vault of a bankrupt banker when you can hold bitcoins? I wouldn't bet on what happens to the gold. I only feel like it will go very low over the next 20 years. Shorter term - have no idea.

I won't bet because, as someone pointed out, it's an infeasible option.

I work indirectly with the publishing business (librarian) so I'll use a publishing analogy. Someone asked me if e-books would replace books and I generally say "Maybe, but probably not until after I retire". The truth is "no". Why? Because right now, at least, there's nothing wrong with the book. Zilch. And we've seen e-book purchasing level off because people who want to read e-books read them and people who don't want to don't and most people do both. Right now there's absolutly nothing wrong with my dollars. I can still buy stuff, wire them places, get them from ATMs and so on. The point at which that stops (major political meltdown) is also the point at which bitcoin is likely to become impractical as well (infrastructure failure) unless the transition happens so slowly a bet is pointless.

Books are not broken. They are just not suitable in some cases.

Financial system is utterly broken and breaks more and more lives every day.

1. Some people can't do international business because they can't have bank account.

2. People have their accounts frozen, taxed, "bailed-in" etc.

3. People pay huge fees for remittances.

4. People pay huge price via inflation.

5. People die in wars funded by money printed out of thin air by US.

6. People can't effectively protest against government's actions by not paying taxes since all money is owned by monopoly of banks anyway.

Bitcoin gives so much more freedom and allows to save a lot of lives. Paper money is a modern instrument of enslavement, not just some older technology.

I don't know why I'm responding to this as I can tell I'm trying to have a discussion about pragmatism with someone who's goals are ideological.

Bitcoin solves none of these problems. Fractional reserve banking, the mutability of the money supply, interest: all of that will continue to exist regardless of currency. Just as people borrowed money on interest when gold was the currency (or the standard) people will do so with bitcoin. These financial tools were created from necessity, not as "tools of oppression". Bitcoin will be saddled with the same financial services (banks, credit and so on) that currencies always have been because, for better or worse, we need those services. I recommend The Ascent of Money as I feel it’s a fairly nice, brief history of financial services.

But that's really beside the point. People don't make decisions about their money based on ideology; they make it based on what they need to buy food, clothing, shelter, entertainment and all the other stuff they transact every day. If I go out to people on the street and give them bitcoins and tell them it will free them from oppression, they will still pull out their dollars to buy milk because that's what the supermarket takes. There's no shaking of the shackles of oppression here because the shackles are social, not financial. The exercise of power and oppression goes much deeper than the kind of currency we use.

So if in 5 years Bitcoin does not displace half of the sovereign currencies I pay you $10K. But if it does, you pay me 1 BTC. We need to formalise the measurement first, but what about the general outline?

Forget what I said above about not trusting an escrow :) With such lovely odds, I'll gladly take you on this bet. Contact John K from bitcointalk about doing the escrow and I'm in. We can even up the sum a bit :)

Did you ever get a response on this? I'd deposit a bitcoin into escrow if he deposits 10,000. Are the terms still 1/2 the sovereign currencies or are we going with your 100% rise in value? I think I'll stick with the 1/2 the sovereign currencies as all sorts of things can cause hyperinflation of commodities prices. Seems like a worthy bet.

Nope, he suddenly went silent after I agreed to the bet. But I'm sure he had some very important thing to do that's keeping him busy and not able to answer ;)

Or serious flaw will be discovered and it will go from $? to being worthless.

Or it will be declared illegal (unlikely IMO) so the businesses won't be able to accept it and it will be only used in markets dealing with illegal stuff, like SilkRoad.

Or it will be stable enough to be used as currency, and it will coexists with EUR/USD and other currencies.

I think that any of the above is more likely than your scenario.

Can you explain what's so different about the next 5 years from the previous 5 years that'll result in hyper inflation?

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