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It's interesting to hear there's someone doing this. Nate Silver came to a similar conclusion at his Google Talk[1]. He proposed this as the answer to the question "What is the most statistically unsound tactic in sports?"

[1] http://youtu.be/mYIgSq-ZWE0?t=20m2s




I asked that question :).


Silver also defended Bill Belickick's controversial decision to attempt a 4th-down conversion over a field goal against the Colts in 2009:

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/16/defending-beli...


My apologies, that should say Brian Burke, not Silver.




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