Payscale subtracts the median wage of a high school graduate...
This is a common mistake, and one which completely invalidates the process. The median high school graduate is someone who wasn't able to get into college, and many of the factors associated with that -- starting with low high school grades -- are also associated with lower earnings. You might as well say that purring results in pets gaining legs, because pets which purr have on average more legs than pets which don't purr.
To get any accurate measure of the value of going to college, you need to compare students who are similar in all ways except college attendance. Of course, this is a difficult thing to do, since it involves looking at high school grades, SAT scores, parental income, parental education, and gender at a minimum -- all of these factors are known to correlate with both individual educational achievement and individual earnings.
The article actually deals with this. "One recent study compared the earnings of students who just made the academic cutoff to attend the Florida State University System with those of students who fell just below the cutoff (and mostly did not attend college as a result). We might expect college not to be worth it for these students on the margins of qualifying, yet they reaped returns of 11%."
While this does not look at high school grades, SAT scores, etc., I think comparing just above the cutoff and just below the cutoff is a valid methodology to counter the effect. What do you think?
When I was in high school, teachers were quite open about adjusting marks if it meant the difference between acceptance and rejection, but you had to put forth the effort to talk with them and make your case.
With that, some studies have suggested that soft-skills, like determination, are what determine future earnings. Someone with average to poor academic performance, but high determination, could ensure that the cutoff is met with a little pressure put on the teachers, while someone less determined would sit back and be accepting of the non-acceptance position.
It is nice to see some other methodologies tested, but I'm not sure this one really addresses the common concerns with the standard interpretation.
This is a common mistake, and one which completely invalidates the process. The median high school graduate is someone who wasn't able to get into college, and many of the factors associated with that -- starting with low high school grades -- are also associated with lower earnings. You might as well say that purring results in pets gaining legs, because pets which purr have on average more legs than pets which don't purr.
To get any accurate measure of the value of going to college, you need to compare students who are similar in all ways except college attendance. Of course, this is a difficult thing to do, since it involves looking at high school grades, SAT scores, parental income, parental education, and gender at a minimum -- all of these factors are known to correlate with both individual educational achievement and individual earnings.