This isn't saying that Tesla is worth much, just that GM is worth next to nothing. At this point, it looks like a foregone conclusion that GM shareholders will be wiped out in a month or two. GM's obligations seem worth more than its assets and its costs (parts, labor, etc.) are greater than its revenues which makes it unlikely they shall ever meet those obligations in the future.
To be honest, I'm surprised GM is worth a whole billion dollars. All of the plans - from the President's plan to award 50% of the company to the treasury, 40% to the UAW, and 10% to creditors to bankruptcy which would see all common shares voided - would see any stake in common stock worth nothing. Are there people who think GM is going to get a scenario where they are able to pay off their creditors, the UAW, and the government in order to avoid wiping out common shareholders?
GM's value is zero. The stock price represents a nervous dance between shorts and longs who try to force sqeezes. (And I suppose there are gamblers who are betting that the government will bail them out without a ch 11 style reorg.)
If GM's value speculative then Telsa's valuation is completely pulled out of thin air. Just a few months ago Tesla was actually losing money on every car they sold. Now they're asking for government money to stay afloat and promising a 50k sedan for the masses. Let me get this straight... at the moment, they cant build a miata sized roadster with a sparse interior on an existing platform for less than 90k, but in 2 years they're going to have a profitable full-sized sedan to go up against cars like the Lexus GS, BMW 5 and Mercedes E selling for half that?
I love Tesla, but if I had to place my bets, I'd think it more likely that you'll be able to buy a Corvette in 10 years than a Tesla roadster.
A value "pulled out of thin air" is still better than "almost certainly zero via bankruptcy". And even if Corvettes rather than Teslas are still on sale 10 years from now, that might not mean any value flows to current GM stockholders.
The most likely discontinuity ahead for GM is a zeroing-out of all current stockholders. For Tesla, there are certain discontinuities -- such as acquisition for technology -- that pay off stockholders even if the nameplate disappears.
There is the Net Present Value (NPV) of GM, which is the value of it's future revenue streams - future losses. (Future revenue streams include some bailout money, etc.) Currently, the expected NPV of GM is negative.
Then there is the share price of GM. This is equal to max(NPV,0) because even if the NPV of GM is negative, you won't lose more than the value of your shares. So a share of GM stock is actually an option on the NPV of the company. This is nonzero, since there is a chance GM will recover.
Fun fact: to increase the value of GM's shares, you can either increase NPV or increase volatility.
[edit: my use of the term enterprise value was wrong. I think I meant NPV, but I'm not 100% sure of terminology. Thanks sachinag.]
Also, fun: If equity is an option on the underlying firm, then who wrote it?, the debt holders. So more accurately "The long tail of GM's upside worth double Tesla Motors" since the value of GM's public debt, even in bankruptcy, would dwarf Tesla.
Why do people insist on making these stupid comparisons? It reminds me of how drama-queenish techcrunch was when the markets were free falling. GOOGLE LOSES HALF ITS VALUE!!!! it's a pointless exercise. market cap isn't the be all and end all of a company's value. And the valuation agreed upon by a single investor and a company is even less of an indicator of that company's real value.
You can't make up a loss on every vehicle through volume, except maybe by being "too big to fail". And even that is unlikely to help the GM stockholders (as opposed to the staff and unions and warrantyholders).
Bad analysis - can't forget $54 billion in debt. Minus $11 billion in cash plus the equity, so enterprise value of GM is $44 billion according to the latest financials.
Welcome to the rotten fruits of crony capitalism 2.0. The millionaires who own Tesla got a $350 million loan from the U.S. government this year. Taxpayers only get downside, while a bunch of insiders and now a foreign carmaker capture all the upside.
As opposed to what? The millionaires in charge of GM that got billions? Sounds like Uncle Sam is just hedging his automotive bet. If I didn't know any better I'd say that (cough) made sense.
To be honest, I'm surprised GM is worth a whole billion dollars. All of the plans - from the President's plan to award 50% of the company to the treasury, 40% to the UAW, and 10% to creditors to bankruptcy which would see all common shares voided - would see any stake in common stock worth nothing. Are there people who think GM is going to get a scenario where they are able to pay off their creditors, the UAW, and the government in order to avoid wiping out common shareholders?