You note the exceptional case. Of course odds of that happening are very low. Hence it is exceptional.
Sure - 2% of people survived a fall from the Golden Gate bridge, so that means it's silly to focus on the death aspects of such a fall when reasoning about "if someone does fall".
Similarly people occasionally choke to death on food. So we should stop talking about eating without serious choking warnings all over the place, right?
Look, there are people for whom a felony conviction could seriously ruin their life. If you've spent your entire life trying to be a defense attorney, or you long to join the FBI, a felony conviction ends your dreams.
Swartz wasn't like that. A felony conviction would have prevented him from working at IBM but he wasn't going to do that anyway. For all possible jobs he could have gotten before, a felony conviction would have been a badge of honor or irrelevant.
Well let me add another 'exceptional case' then. I worked with a felon who was even able to get a security clearance and a government job and serve on 'special' assignments.
Swartz happened to work in one of the very few fields where a CFAA felony is not only not a big deal, but might even be considered a badge of honor. So IMHO the argument that a felony would have been some kind of death sentence for aaronsw definitely requires evidence.
I'm not trying to downplay the significance of a felony conviction, but it shouldn't be overplayed either.