> You'd think that such a smart guy would have realized...

This is the best theory I've seen yet to explain his behavior:

http://groups.google.com/group/sci.math/msg/37f51351f5340e58...

It makes a lot of sense, in light of the man's biography.

See this:

http://www.cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/reviews/wolfram/

for an informed critic's perspective on the details.