I like your analysis, but why throw the 4 million estimate on the number of people killed in your Avenue 2 scenario? To give a number like that for such a speculative scenario seems ridiculous to me.
I figure it will take about 4000 casualties among the global elite (of about 80,000 people) to convince them to retreat. Somewhere around one spill per 20 will convince them that times have changed.
Unfortunately, we're probably looking at a battle kill ratio of 100:1, not because the good guys would be incompetent, but because the bad guys would have lots of guards and hired guns (who would count toward that 100). So that's 400,000 in battle.
The spinoff conflicts and general social mayhem and disruptions of service will add an order of magnitude to that. Most of the dead won't be killed in battle; they'll be people who can't get to hospitals in time because of roadblocks.
All-in, low millions seems likely. We really want to avoid that if possible. However, when you compare that to the number of people who die of health insurance in the US, or the casualty count of the 2003 War of Corporate Enrichment (in Iraq) it's not that extreme. It's still horrible and we still need to do everything we can as a generation to make sure that it doesn't happen, but it's not a x-risk (which our current corporate elite is).
I only support violence if it comes to us, as a second-strike matter-- I would much rather have the global corporate elite back off peacefully and no one get killed-- but U.S. health insurance (i.e. corporate murder-for-profit) is pretty damn close to the red line.
