Like I say: it's a useful untruth. The reaction varies from person to person.
And some of it is I think evolved. Optimism is the grease that oils capitalism, probably because optimistic ancestors took risks that in some cases paid off. Sure, most optimists failed horribly. But the payoffs for the lucky ones were sufficiently high to offset the cost. Thus optimism can become a dominant strategy. (I'm spitballing; the problem with evopsych is that it's all smart-sounding just-so stories that can't be tested).
I mean I'm in the same boat. I'm working on a product which is specifically connected to questions of luck, risk, variance, human bias and so forth. If I am honest with myself the base rate / reference class forecast is that I will probably fail horribly. The rational thing to do would be to present my credentials at a big company.
And some of it is I think evolved. Optimism is the grease that oils capitalism, probably because optimistic ancestors took risks that in some cases paid off. Sure, most optimists failed horribly. But the payoffs for the lucky ones were sufficiently high to offset the cost. Thus optimism can become a dominant strategy. (I'm spitballing; the problem with evopsych is that it's all smart-sounding just-so stories that can't be tested).
I mean I'm in the same boat. I'm working on a product which is specifically connected to questions of luck, risk, variance, human bias and so forth. If I am honest with myself the base rate / reference class forecast is that I will probably fail horribly. The rational thing to do would be to present my credentials at a big company.
And yet ...