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You can call outside speculation "a statement of probabilities" in an attempt to make it seem legitimate, but that doesn't make you correct.

Dressing up speculation doesn't change what it is.




I am confused on how you think the information should be used to change ones opinion and future actions. Do you think there should be zero influence?

> but that doesn't make you correct.

My aim was not to be 100% correct about Arron, but rather to on average be more correct with similar cases.




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