A software practitioner, you say? As a researcher in machine learning, I think you're wrong. I agree that recursively self-improving AI is not around the corner, but I think it could happen in a few decades.
Even if it has a 1% chance of happening in the next century, I would still allocate resources to thinking about how to mitigate the risks (and maybe look foolish if it never happens) than leave things to chance and end up regretting it. By which I mean, a runaway AI destroys humanity or other bad outcomes.
As for the moving target -- since a singularity, if it happens, would be very important, it definitely makes sense to talk about lots of different scenarios. Anyone who dismisses a plausible scenario just because that's not what Vernor Vinge said, or what Ray Kurzweil said -- well, they can safely be dismissed.
Even if it has a 1% chance of happening in the next century, I would still allocate resources to thinking about how to mitigate the risks (and maybe look foolish if it never happens) than leave things to chance and end up regretting it. By which I mean, a runaway AI destroys humanity or other bad outcomes.
As for the moving target -- since a singularity, if it happens, would be very important, it definitely makes sense to talk about lots of different scenarios. Anyone who dismisses a plausible scenario just because that's not what Vernor Vinge said, or what Ray Kurzweil said -- well, they can safely be dismissed.