The same situation existed for life extension technologies in the 1970s. People were far more optimistic than the science merited. Here's an explanation as to why things are different now for that field, and you can perhaps draw the parallels for the other parts of the SMILE (space migration, intelligence increase, life extension) equation:
But in the 1970s, getting proto-SENS to work in mice would not have been a billion-dollar, ten year proposal as is presently the case. It would have required a far greater initiative, one to rival the space program or the formation of the NIH. In 2009 we live in an age of biotechnology and life science capabilities that is far, far removed from the rudiments of 1970. Work that today can be achieved by a single postgrad in a few months for a few tens of thousands of dollars would have required entire dedicated laboratories, years of labor, and tens of millions of dollars in the 1970s.
The advocates of 1970 who predicted engineered longevity in their lifetimes were wrong for two reasons: a) because the technology of that period, while advancing rapidly, would remain inadequate to the task for decades, b) there was no set of events likely to lead to the necessary (enormous) outlay of resources required to make significant progress in life-extending medicine.
Another reason i think is that life sciences applications are inherently difficult for ethical reasons. It's one thing to risk a few people's lives who get sent to space once in a blue moon, and another to purposefully put the lives of patients at risk experimenting. On the other hand, experimenting with computers is harmless.
In the sci-fi stories of a libertarian bent, ethics were a little more mutable in the search of their ultimate goals. Such externalities were often avoided or ignored.
http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2009/05/learning-from-the...
But in the 1970s, getting proto-SENS to work in mice would not have been a billion-dollar, ten year proposal as is presently the case. It would have required a far greater initiative, one to rival the space program or the formation of the NIH. In 2009 we live in an age of biotechnology and life science capabilities that is far, far removed from the rudiments of 1970. Work that today can be achieved by a single postgrad in a few months for a few tens of thousands of dollars would have required entire dedicated laboratories, years of labor, and tens of millions of dollars in the 1970s.
The advocates of 1970 who predicted engineered longevity in their lifetimes were wrong for two reasons: a) because the technology of that period, while advancing rapidly, would remain inadequate to the task for decades, b) there was no set of events likely to lead to the necessary (enormous) outlay of resources required to make significant progress in life-extending medicine.