In today's world there is a roadmap for a < 20 year transition for the entire world if planned and executed collectively.
However Chinese domination, global geopolitics being changed and fossil fuel industries and countries still being extremely large and powerful make even choosing the obviously cheapest (and incidentally clean) option difficult in many parts of the world.
Nonetheless, it seems much more optimistic today in 2025 than say 2015 speaking purely based on where technology stands
> However Chinese domination .. make even choosing the obviously cheapest (and incidentally clean) option difficult in many parts of the world.
In what way? China has basically dwarfed solar installations of any other country combined for the last two years, and produces so many panels and so cheap that EU and US competitors are being driven out of business.
China might be the reason we CAN make the transition actually.
Probably thinking that if it appears China is getting global dominance in energy production/energy storage/car manufacturing, the West would block imports out of political and economic expediency. Like the current US administration is doing.
The chemical sector is the only reason why emissions haven't meaningfully declined yet, and I suspect it is in part due to conversion of supply chain for electrification.
The point is that they're paying a one-off cost (thus producing a peak) and they're already reaping rewards. Once they fully transition power generation to renewables and electrify transportation, what's left can be better regulated and CO2 recapture more easily scaled thanks to also R&D advances on CO2 recapture (e.g. capturing CO2 emissions from a chemical plant's exhaust). Then, even if you need more energy for CO2 recapture, you can keep scaling renewables further.
If everyone sets goals and starts work to reduce emissions in 2015 you dont get credit for failing to meet all your goals while secretly doing the opposite and trying to create as much growth as possible by scaling coal production. Like how would it be if my country was like ok we will reduce emissions in 2045 and then doubled our emissions in the next 5 years. Thats what China is doing.
However Chinese domination, global geopolitics being changed and fossil fuel industries and countries still being extremely large and powerful make even choosing the obviously cheapest (and incidentally clean) option difficult in many parts of the world.
Nonetheless, it seems much more optimistic today in 2025 than say 2015 speaking purely based on where technology stands