True innovation will come from open source for sure. As the developers don't have the same economic incentives to be "safe", "ethical" "profitable" or whatever. large corporations know this and fear this development. That's why i expect a significant lobbying to take hold in USA that will try and make local AI systems illegal. And I think they will be very convincing to the government. Because the government also fears the "peasants" and giving them any true semblance of real AGI like systems. I bet very soon we will start seeing various classifications that will define what is legal and what is not for a citizen to possess or use.
> That's why i expect a significant lobbying to take hold in USA that will try and make local AI systems illegal.
I think they're going to be using porn and terrorism (as usual) to do that, but also child suicide. I also think they're going to leverage this rhetoric to lock down OSes in general, by making them uninstallable on legally-available hardware unless approved, because approved OSes will only be able to run approved LLMs.
Meaning that I think LLMs/generative AI will be the lever to eliminate general-purpose computing. As mobile went, so will desktop.
I think this is inevitable. The real question for me is whether China will partner with the west on this, or whether we will be trading Chinese CPUs with each other like contraband in order to run what we want.
> any true semblance of real AGI like systems.
This is the only part I don't agree with. This isn't going to happen, but I'm not even sure it would be more useful than what we have. We have billions of full AGI machines walking around, and most of them aren't great. I'm talking about restrictions on something technically barely better than what we have now; maybe only a significant bit more compute-efficient. Training techniques will probably be where we get the most improvements.
