Yes, but the point of this article is surely that on average if it's working, there would be obvious signs of it working by now.
Even if there are statistical outliers (ie. 10x productivity using the tools), if on average, it does nothing to the productivity of developers, something isn't working as promised.
We need long running averages and 2023-2025 is still too early to determine it's not effective. The barriers of entry for 2023 and 2024, I'd argue is too high for inexperienced developers to start churning software. For seasoned developers, the skepticism and company adoption wasn't there yet (and still isn't).
Yes, but the point of this article is surely that on average if it's working, there would be obvious signs of it working by now.
Even if there are statistical outliers (ie. 10x productivity using the tools), if on average, it does nothing to the productivity of developers, something isn't working as promised.